Somalia's last chance

[dambarsame]

While the current Somali transitional government is by no means perfect, there are at least a couple of things it has been doing right- putting in place various apparatuses to pave the way for good governance, and laying the foundation to reestablish law and order. Granted, these two developments are only moving at a snail’s-pace.

 

Furthermore, these kinds of developments are not as appealing as the reports of lawlessness, corruption, violence and piracy, thus they seldom get reported. When it comes to reporting news, especially as it pertains to other non ally countries, there seems to be a prevalent norm that predictably gravitates toward the negative. Positive is boring!

 

So, if one’s impression about Somalia is based on reports by that same media who, by and large, rely on scoops gathered by amateur local reporters that they then cosmetically polish in the comforts of their offices thousands of miles away from the scene, one is likely to hold a blurred picture about the reality on the ground. And, it is no surprise that some policy advocates are so credulously misinformed, they declare Somalia a hopeless case; and that the United States and the international community should totally disengage from that country and to leave to its own diabolical vices.

 

One of the main factors that caused the failure of the so-called global war on terrorism was that fact that it ignored how the feeling of hopelessness inspires desperate and destructive acts. As the individual grows more dangerous when consumed by a sense of hopelessness so do groups and nations. There is enough psychological research available to confirm that the feeling of desperation triggers survival instincts that know only one rule: by any means necessary.

 

This is not to downplay the enormity of the task required to help the transitional government restore law and order… but to point out that abandoning Somalia at this critical juncture could simply worsen the situation. While it is true that the U.S. foreign policy of the previous administration and the role of AMISOM have further radicalized more Somalis, the abovementioned alternative could be a recipe for disaster- not only for Somalia , but for the region and perhaps beyond. AMISOM earned a bad reputation during the two year Ethiopian occupation of Somalia . To improve its image and regain credibility, certain Muslim countries must be persuaded to send their troops.

 

Given the right political and economic support, the transitional government would step up to the challenge and assert its mandate to govern and set the stage for broad-based reconciliation that includes those al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam members who denounce violence, “Somaliland” and “Puntland”.

 

The current transitional government has the potential to surprise the cynics who are writing it off. Contrary to the common practice of the previous transitional governments, the current government is a coalition of Islamists and secularists. The inner circle of influence counseling President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke on various critical issues are diverse in terms of clan affiliation, educational background as well as age and experience. Not to mention that a good number of them come from the Somali Diaspora. So it is fair to say that for the first time something that resembles the genuine principle of inclusivity in political participation is shaping itself in Somalia .

 

Ironically though, the biggest hurdle hindering the sustainability of any immediate solution still remains to be the so-called’ 4.5 system’ in which the zero-sum clan-based competition for resources is institutionalized. Power, according to this system, is divided on an unbalanced scale that guarantees equal distribution to four major clans and a one half share for minority communities considered to be the riffraff of a clan-based society where might is rewarded.

 

However, the good news is: elements that could potentially dismantle this unjust system are on the move. Already, within the Somali Diaspora communities, various groups have started holding early political town hall meetings to develop their platform and form political parties that would run in the upcoming general elections a little over a year from now. And it is this latter development that is further boosting the hope of many active members of the Somali diaspora who have been yearning for stability and peace.

 

In its attempt to develop a comprehensive policy toward Somalia; were the United States to adopt the so-called “constructive disengagement” approach being pushed by the Council on Foreign Relations, it would only mean to completely abandon two elements critical to its national interest and security: repairing U.S.’ deeply damaged image in the Islamic world, and protecting America’s geopolitical interests. Prudently engaging Somalia provides an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.

 

Meanwhile, the alarm bells are ringing: pirates continue seizing commercial ships and vessels- over 200 attempts and 47 successes in 2009. Religious extremism, a phenomenon that Abukar Arman—a Somali writer who was recently appointed Special Envoy to the US —calls “radio-active ideology” masquerading as religion continues to spread. And, 3.5 million Somalis remain on the verge starvation.

________________________________________

Dr. Oduesp Eman teaches political Islam in Turkey

[Amistad]

You are speaking about my friend in CFR, Bronwyn Bruton, and she is not advising any abandonment, quite the contrary. She is advising political dis-engagement, and for foreign govts not to meddle inside Somali Politics, and to let them form their own solutions to their own problems.

 

The U.S. will continue to show political support for the TFG and other regions in Somalia, one being the new USAID TIS-Transition Initiative Somalia (TIS)program. This huge funded program supports all parties and addresses and provides funds for everything from institution building, to road and school construction etc etc etc.

 

The good Dr is reading into the CFR paper waaaaaay to much.

 

Here is an interesting job behind the program:

 

2010-03-05 :

 

Transition Initiative for Somalia Program Manager

Solicitation Number: SOL-623-EA-10-011

Agency: USAID Agency for International Development

Office: Overseas Missions

Location: East Africa USAID-Kenya

Notice Type: COMBINE

Synopsis

 

 

USAID seeks to employ a US Personal Services Contractor (PSC) to manage its Transition Initiative for Somalia (TIS) program. The TIS program will support quick-impact, results-based activities to demonstrate the positive impact of the political reconciliation process. This will include making small grants to communities and local/national governments and generating employment to help deter youth from joining insurgent groups. Community-driven, quick-impact programs in targeted areas should increase economic opportunities in the short term, build confidence in the peace process and contribute to the development of a more comprehensive recovery plan. The program will address the urgent need for income generation and job creation. The program will work with civil society organizations and local stakeholders to involve beneficiary communities in all phases of project identification and implementation. Specific project activities include small-scale infrastructure rehabilitation of clinics, markets, local government buildings, and irrigation canals. Other projects may be road repair, water and sanitation projects, and small scale microfinance. This program will be managed out of the East Africa Regional Office in USAID's Mission in Nairobi.

Contact

Marcelline A. Ochola, Acquisition & Assistance Specialist, Phone 254208622462, Fax 254208622680/2682, Email mochola@usaid.gov - Amina Fazaldeen, Acquisition & Assistance Specialist, Phone 254208622491, Fax 254208622680/2682, Email afazaldeen@usaid.gov

Place of Performance

USAID/EA/LPC P.O Box 629, Village Market -00621 Nairobi, Kenya Nairobi KE

[dambarsame]

Originally posted by Amistad:

[QB] You are speaking about my friend in CFR, Bronwyn Bruton, and she is not advising any abandonment, quite the contrary. She is advising political dis-engagement, and for foreign govts not to meddle inside Somali Politics, and to let them form their own solutions to their own problems.

 

what does that mean brother in law (as you mentioned else where)?

 

while you intent to support somalia that huge programme and yet decided never set your foot in somalia nor interfer internal affairs,while somalia has some serene areas applicable to utilize it. I think the programme will be thorughly consumed at nairobi by its funders and kenyans

[RaMpAgE]

What makes it somalia's last chance? why does it have to be its last chance? i Dont get it, just because a bunch of imcompetent politicans are running somali doesn't mean that somali is dead, the future has never been brighter.

[dambarsame]

than now( IN SHAA ALLAAH), I think you mean that

[Kashafa]

advising political dis-engagement, and for foreign govts not to meddle inside Somali Politics, and to let them form their own solutions to their own problems

Agreed! Leave us be. The world will then see a strong, independent, clan-free Somalia rise from the ashes of statelessness and anarchy.

 

But before that, there will be the inevitable accompanying birth pangs, such as the liberation of the remaining portions of Mogadisho, the conquest of the Ethiopian protectorates of Somaliland and Puntland, together with the final mopping up operations against any armed groups/militias in the country.

 

So you're right stop meddling in our affairs; it'll be a win-win outcome for all, the least of it being the eradication of piracy and free, open, and safe shipping lanes.

[dambarsame]

Go on my zealout friend

[Amistad]

That CFR paper also had some Phd co-authors, and they work for US DoS. It is good advice, dis-engagement, not abandonment. I believe the writings of Dr Meglomattis from Ecoterra, east african affairs expert, suggest the same, and it is rare we see him concur with his arch rival, DoS Dr Peter Phram.