the coming world order - round table forum

[Muhammad]

I was thinking of starting this topic for a while. after reading few recent posts, I saw this theme was discussed in different threads, so i'll open one that we can collect our different thoughts and opinions. I hope that you take part and give your 2cents in this very important subject, especially since the effects will mostly be felt by us, the mostly under 30 yrs old members of SOL.

 

I believe there are only 6 key players;

1. U.S.

2. China

3. India

4. Russia

5. Euro

*6. The Ummah

* even tho there is no clear political/economical unity in the Islamic World, there is still a strong sense of Ummahism, that goes beyong borders.

 

Possible Key Alliances

 

The U.S./China - This is the most unlikeliest of all possible key alliances, since they are the battling for the number 1 position.

 

The U.S./India - This is a possible scenario. India claims to be the largest decomcracy in the world, and even tho The current U.S. regime is friendly with Pakistan, its only for a short period, until they finish their intentions in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Also with the rise of Hindu-nationalism that seems to thrive for Anti-Islam/Muslims, and the current unfriendly relationship with China and India, this Alliance is quite possible in the near future.

 

Euro/Russia - I may sound crazy here, but I think A Russo-Euro Allience is more likely to emerge in the near future that will almost erase the current NATO. the U.S. will have few states that align with her, such as Great Brit. and Poland, but the Old Europe, France, Germany, Italy, will move more towards Russia, mainly because of Oil and reginal balance.

 

The Ummah - its very hard to see at this moment who the Ummah will Align with, since there is no one visible Ummah. but the most likely scenarios are:

 

The Ummah/Euro - hence due to the large muslim populations in European countries and their nearness to the Ummah, I think there is a possible Alliance based on Cooporation. Euro badly wants to distance itself from the American Agenda, war on terror. They have their own needs, Oil, Trade, and also most have no interest in the Internal affairs of the Ummah.

 

The Ummah/China - China is similar to Europe because there is no great conflict between the Ummah and China at the present Moment. Besides from Xinjing(East Turkistan) which I believe can be worked out, China eagerly wants to have close-friendly relations with the Ummah. Mainly because of Oil and Trade, and China is unlikely to tell others about their Internal affairs.

 

Ummah/Russia, Ummah/US, Ummah/India - these three scenarios are very hard to happen. Mainly because of current conflicts(chechnya, iraq/palestine, kashmir), at this moment, I don't see these possibilities.

 

Unlikely Alliences:

 

China/India - such big neighbors never get along.

 

Russia/China - it seems the close they become, the more they depart!

 

Key Points:

 

OIL - the blood of the modern world. where there is oil, you'll find the wolves. within the next 50 years, it is predicted that Oil will reach its peak. thus whoever controls Oil, will control the world Market. "The Spice must Flow" even if Oil runs out, the next most viable source of energy is Solar energy, and the best places to collect these are in Muslim Lands(the deserts).

 

now since the Ummah is sitting on the largest piece of this Pie, its without a doubt that the wolves are coming towords us. The Middle East, and Central Asia, will become a major Stratigic points of influence.

 

Development of India and China - the tiger and the dragon will become thirsty for a piece of the pie. of the two, China seems to be investing more on Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East and even in the south east asia.

 

Population Growth Rate - the best weapon of the Ummah by far is their Growth Rate. Islam is the fastest growing religion mainly to natural birth. as Siraj Wahaj said, "Muslim know how to have babies". within 25-50 years, Islam will become for the first time the #1 religion by population in the world. while the west is dying off, the Ummah is rising in amazing speed!

 

Current Developments

 

Iran and the Second Islamic Bomb - pakistan's nuclear power is only limited to her duel against India. but if Iran develops her own bomb, it will have a far greater effect in the middle east and central asia. it will surely start a new atomic race in the mid east, israel and large arab states(specially egypt and saudi araba who iran doesn't get along very well).

 

China and Taiwan - with the current tention between these two that is rising, and the infolvement of the U.S., this will also have a large effect on the world.

 

U.S. and 'the war against terror - wether you like or not, this is having a major effect thru out the Muslim world. the current protests in Lebanon, Kyrgyzstan, the elections in Egypt and S.Arabia, these are related to the U.S and her war against Iraq and terror to some extent.

 

Israel and Palestine - finally Israel seems to have realized that even if they keep occupying and humilating the Palestinians, the final victory will belong to them, because the palestinans have a 2 secret weapons if coupled form a powerful one - Patience and Growth Rate. Now they are running to the 2 state solution so fast that they are running away from their settlers in Gaza and West Bank.

 

please comment on above, how do you see the coming changes in the world? what major changes do you see yourself? how can we as Muslims and Somali prepare for this change and develope? who should we make Allaince with?

 

also post any news links, statistics, books, websites, documantries that relate to this topic. shukran!

 

 

Allah Knows Best! All are in Allah's Hand! The Past, the Present and the Future!

[contraflow]

THIS IS AN INTRIGUING TOPIC

 

i believe that us ( the ummah) will be lost i.e we will not jointly unite with one of these powers. This is my prediction...the ummah will be the victim of all these allies one way or the other.

 

 

You are right the Palestinians will in due time become strong and victorious but i do strongly believe that before that happens the Ummah will have to wake up and smell the coffee

[macalimuu]

the Ummah card should be taken out of the equation. with the Islamic world’s gloomy state of affairs, we will remain mere tokens with no influence and sway on the future competition of geo-political global domination.

I think china, with its fast growing emerging economies, population growth, will be a super power to reckon with within the coming 50 years. It will also be a huge market opportunity for Multinational Enterprises. Imagine new 600 million cars, fridges, microwaves, gadgets and other products the Chinese will be utilizing within the next decade? The Chinese middle class combined with the Indian one will be most attractive market segment to target and exploit.

 

United States of Europe may challenge China peacefully and economically. what will be the fate of the USA? that is the question every one is asking for but has no answer. USA will maintain its supremacy as long as it controls the world oil supplies in Euro-Asia and as long as they don’t let others violate the nuclear Non-Proliferation treaties.

[Muhammad]

bro Contraflow, I feel and share your fear of the possibility that we won't be able to change our current ways, and not become proactive, by re-aligning our principles and habbits to our only Source of Strength and Power, Allah(swt).

 

but even in the direst of situations, we must think positively and hope for the best. the choice is ours, it because of the wrong choices we have made in the past that lead us into our current state. we need not only to change our habbits, but our life-style, the question is are we realy ready and do we realy want to?

 

if we believe we are doomed, then most certainly we are doomed, the question is are we weak(state) because we are depressed(mind-state) or are we depressed because we are weak?

[contraflow]

first and foremost i'm not a guy ..i'm a girl

 

we are mentally opressed ...if you look around you the kufaar media is all over the place and very strong. They play with the Ummah's minds especially the young ones through the media ..since the media is the most powerful tool that can convey a message

 

On the other hand the Islamic media is unbelievably weak....not that we lack the money but because there is no sense of determination and self improvement. Any how i do think that we are going to turn a new leaf and regain the power we once had but i don't think we are ready to make that change yet. We first have to unite amongst ourselves and not only be Muslims through name but by action.

[Cuchullin]

You are certainly right about the mysterious link between China and Russia, last month i was listening to a lecture given by the current Russian Space departments minister of foreign affairs, and one person in the lecturing hall asked: 'To what extent do China and Russia work together in today's Space industry' and the answer had what seemed a tinge of harshness : 'Russia and China today do not work together in Space but in very small circumstances, as China is more and more becoming independant.'

This is but a sample of the many areas these two mega-nations clash, and the fact they share the same border and therefore are each in danger of the other is another point to remember.

[Yusufaddie]

I believe that the Ummah will become united under one Amir and i also believe that Somalia will be one of the first to join this Islamic Union. I believe that Somalia would be more of a catalyst to form this union, because if Somalis become united for the sake of Islam, how difficult would it be for the rest of the Ummah?

[Muhammad]

Originally posted by Cuchullin:

You are certainly right about the mysterious link between China and Russia, last month i was listening to a lecture given by the current Russian Space departments minister of foreign affairs, and one person in the lecturing hall asked: 'To what extent do China and Russia work together in today's Space industry' and the answer had what seemed a tinge of harshness : 'Russia and China today do not work together in Space but in very small circumstances, as China is more and more becoming independant.'

This is but a sample of the many areas these two mega-nations clash, and the fact they share the same border and therefore are each in danger of the other is another point to remember.

indeed. the only reason they get along at this moment is that China is of Russias major markets for weapons. China is known for her copy-cat ways, every tank, rifle, fighter she buys from anyone, she takes it apart and developes her own model.

 

now the only weakness of china at the moment, is not the hardware, but the software, and thats why its very difficult for Russia to help china in Space technology. still China is improving very fast in this field, and soon Russia will loose this major market, and this relationship will come to a crossroad.

 

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Russia and China plan war games

 

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov (right) during his Beijing visit

 

Russia and China - former Cold War foes - will hold an unprecedented military exercise in the second half of 2005.

 

The war game, involving naval ships and aircraft, will take place on Chinese territory, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said.

 

China has become a major market for Russian weapons. In the past five years these exports have risen to $5bn.

 

Russia and China have developed what they call a strategic partnership since the end of the Cold War.

 

Russia will not bring large numbers of servicemen to the exercises, but mostly state-of-the art weapons, including submarines and probably strategic bombers, Mr Ivanov was quoted as saying.

 

Main supplier

 

Russian observers say that China gets half of Russia's weapons exports.

 

Mr Ivanov visited China earlier and described his discussions on Russian weapons deliveries as "record-breaking".

 

Moscow and Beijing share the concept of a multi-polar world - opposing what they see as US global dominance.

 

Mr Ivanov said that in 2005 Russia would also hold joint exercises with other former Soviet countries, Nato and, separately, with France.

[Muhammad]

China military spending 40 to 70 pct higher than official figures - RAND

 

05.19.2005, 09:11 PM

 

WASHINGTON (AFX) - China's military spending is 40 to 70 pct higher than it officially acknowledges, and is likely to exceed that of any US ally in two decades, according to a study by the RAND Corporation.

 

The study estimated China's current annual defense spending at between 2.3 and 2.8 pct of its gross domestic product, or between 69 bln and 78 bln usd in 2001 dollars.

 

That compares to US defense spending of nearly 430 billion dollars in 2004, which was 3.9 pct of GDP in 2004, it said.

 

'China's defense spending has more than doubled over the past six years, almost catching up with Great Britain and Japan,' said Keith Crane, the lead author of the study, 'Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints.'

 

'Although the rate of increase has slowed, by 2025 China will be spending more on defense than any of our allies,' he said.

 

The study said Chinese defense industries have grown more efficient; benefited from access to foreign military systems and technologies; and improved the quality and sophistication of domestically produced military goods in areas such as information technology, shipbuilding and defense electronics.

 

RAND pointed out, however, that the study's estimates of Chinese military spending, although 40 to 70 pct higher than the official figures, were still considerably lower than other outside estimates.

 

The report said military spending likely to grow over the next decade because of the sheer heft of the Chinese economy, which is expected to triple in size over the next two decades even as growth rates subside.

 

On the other hand, the government's ability to continue increasing military spending will be constrained by rising demand for social services, combined with rising government debt, the report said.

 

The study was conducted by RAND's Project Air Force, a federally funded research center that does research on subjects of interest to leaders of the US Air Force.

[Muhammad]

Pentagon warns of China's military might:

 

The Pentagon is preparing to release a report on the Chinese military that warns the US that it should take more seriously the possibility that China might emerge as a strategic rival to the US, according to a senior government official.

 

The report has generated controversy in the Bush administration because of earlier drafts that concerned National Security Council officials by painting what they saw as an overly antagonistic picture of China, according to two people with knowledge of the report.

 

There were also concerns that the report could complicate US efforts to work with China to encourage North Korea to return to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme.

 

Late on Tuesday a senior government official said the controversy did not concern content but only its "presentation".

 

He said it was important to emphasise that the report presented a "range of outcomes" that could materialise along with China's economic growth.

 

President George W. Bush came to office in 2001 calling China a "strategic competitor" rather than a "strategic partner", the term favoured by the Clinton administration.

 

But US-China relations have improved markedly since the 2001 al-Qaeda attacks on the US as China has co-operated in the US "war on terror".

 

Two sources said the report would mention "assassin's mace" strategies a term employed during China's warring-states period that referred to secret weapons and strategies used to deceive and defeat enemies quickly which the People's Liberation Army could be developing for use against Taiwan.

 

The report is expected to emphasise "known unknowns" including the lack of US knowledge about the actual size of theChinese defence budget and its future military strategy.

 

The language is an attempt to emphasise that the US should not acceptat face value China'sstatements that it intendsto emerge as a peaceful power.

 

One source defended the original report, saying the Pentagon was simply responding to congressional pressure. He said Duncan Hunter, the chairman of the House armed services committee, and China hawks on the Senate armed services committee were concerned that previous reports had been too soft in assessing China's future strategies.

 

In recent months, senior US officials, including Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, and Porter Goss, the Central Intelligence Agency director, have voiced concerns about the rapidly expanding Chinese military.

 

The administration has also criticised China's new anti-secession law, which compels the military to attack Taiwan if it appears to be moving towards independence.

 

Copyright 2005 Financial Times

Latest business news from MSNBC

 

 

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Kyrgyzstan May Host 2nd Russia Army Base

 

Tuesday May 24, 2005 8:46 AM

 

By BAGILA BUKHARBAYEVA

 

Associated Press Writer

 

 

OSH, Kyrgyzstan (AP) - Russia has discussed opening a second military base in Kyrgyzstan to help fend off terrorist threats in the volatile region, a senior Kyrgyz official said Tuesday.

 

Anvar Artykov, governor of the Osh region in southern Kyrgyzstan, said the Kyrgyz government had yet to make a final decision on the issue.

 

``There has been preliminary talk about a military base in Osh, about a Russian anti-terror unit here,'' Artykov said at a news conference. ``The issue is yet to be considered at the government level.''

 

Kyrgyzstan hosts both U.S. and Russian military bases, located about 20 miles apart.

 

The Kremlin cautiously welcomed the U.S. military deployment in Kyrgyzstan and the neighboring ex-Soviet republic of Uzbekistan for operations in Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 attacks, but Moscow later grew uneasy about the U.S. presence, saying it should terminate with the end of fighting in Afghanistan.

 

Russia's air base in Kyrgyzstan was broadly seen as an effort to reassert the Kremlin's influence in the strategic, resource-rich region.

 

Kyrgyz officials fear that unrest could spill over from neighboring Uzbekistan, which has been shaken by the May 13 riots in Andijan, where troops fired on protesters. The borders of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan converge in the densely populated Fergana Valley, where poverty runs deep and radical Islamic groups are active, creating a hotbed of instability.

[SOO MAAL]

Very important topic really thanks Salahadiin

 

Islamic Khilafah- united Islamic state is the only solution to the ummah crisis, the current situation of Muslims is very humiliating!!!

 

Somalia can lead the initiative, and be the first province of al-dowlah al-islamiah.

[Major-General Cawad]

China has been for a long time a contender for the position of Global Super Power and I think it is now time for them to overtake their imperialistic rival the United States of America.

 

However I can't think that the Futuristic Islamic Nation should forge an allinace with China which would be truelly unholy alliance because the Chianese are even worse than the Americans that't what I believe.

 

Under Chinese imperialistic rule I wouldn't be able to worship and have religious toleration like you have with America and Europe.

 

The reason being that they're civilised countries who have a heritage of democratic values unlike the chinese who would be a disaster for all muslims as we can see from the evidence in turkistan province of China where Muslims are persecuted without an apperent reason.

 

It's like the Romans and Persians at the time of the Prophet Muhammed peace be upon him when Allah subhana wa ta'ala revealed suuratul Ruum where he urged the muslims not to be sad and upset because of the Romans defeat to the persians because the Kufaar in Makkah used to tease the muslims of the deafet of the Romans because the Mushriks were with the Persians the evil-fire worshipper whereas the Muslisms supported the Romans because they were from the Ahlul Kitaab.

 

Don't think that the Chinese would be any better for the future and certainly the Muslism should never forge an alliance with this superstituitious people called the chinese.

[Muhammad]

Saturday, 4 June, 2005, 10:58 GMT 11:58 UK

 

US queries China military growth

 

Chinese soldiers

 

The US defence secretary has accused China of spending more on its military capabilities than it acknowledges.

 

Donald Rumsfeld said Beijing was expanding its missile build-up and developing advanced systems of military technology, in a speech in Singapore.

 

He questioned the need for "growing investment" because he said no nation was threatening China.

 

The comments highlight US concern over China's increasing military, economic and diplomatic power, observers say.

Call for openness

Mr Rumsfeld's warning came at an annual international security conference of Asian defence ministers and military experts.

 

He said the Pentagon's annual study of China's military power concludes that its defence budget is now the third largest in the world.

 

The defence secretary also questioned China's government.

 

Beijing would have to expand political freedoms to maintain economic growth and influence, he said.

 

"Ultimately, China likely will need to embrace some form of open, representative government if it is to fully achieve the benefits to which its people aspire," he added.

 

The US is urging the European Union to maintain its ban on selling weapons to China.

 

Washington has argued that ending the embargo would upset the balance of power in the region.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4609255.stm