Yeey and Geedi are in odds..!

[Juje]

It is making the rounds both in Xamar and Addis. That there is a big friction between Yeey and his PM Geedi. It is to a point where it is unconsolloble.

In their political skirmish, Geedi has the upper hand, and Yeey is lost in somewhere not knowing what are his capacities and authority.

He does not have the pleasure of naming or sacking a single figure within the TFG, while Geedi does it everyday without even informing Yeyy let alone consulting him. The powers behind these men determines who has the upper hand, and Geedi has the full and unwaivered backing of Zenawi.

People in Xamar ask whether Geedi is a PM under Yusuf or the Ethiopian representative General Gabre.

Yeey is hanging on purely on the basis that his presidency is not under threat, well at least for now. But it is an open secret he was disgusted with the naming of Maxamed Dhere, and to make matters worse - Maxamed Dhere appointed his own individuals to the Banadir Local government which further irked Yeey. Then his henchmen Madobe was replaced with C/qeybdiid...something he found out from the Radio.

The Kismayo issue which was probably the catalyst to the friction between Yeey and Addis is still outstanding. Yeey has done everything to get Ethiopian troops to attack Kismayo but with no success. He even went on public Radio to say that Kismaayo has fallen to Al-Qaeeda supporters. Even the Americans failed to heed that call, cause Ethiopia did not approve.

In one of his many 'warregtos' Maxamed dheere ordered Federal army troops to leave the city, Xamar, and security to be taken over by Police forces, it was apparent the troops mainly comprised of 'kuwi jodariyasha iyo saririhi ka xadey marki ay Jowhar ka baxayeen'...and it was his way of revenge and he his is very scepetical of them. Plus that he also said no one should claim any rank, other than the rank he had in previous Somali regime (dating back to Barre's time)..here he was referring to the many who were bestowed with new ranks by Yeey.

How the cabinet and the parliamentarians are divided down the line in retrospect of Geedi's camp and that of Yeey, is not yet known, but any cabinet minister who is loyal to Yeey has been demoted, take a look at Buuba.

This will certainly determine the outcome of the 'bogus' reconciliation conference called by the TFG, if ever held. However many analyst are saying it is the begining of the end of TFG and it is coming from within.

What is your take?

[Che -Guevara]

Juje....You seem to be expressing how you wish for things to turn out. This could be hardly called an analysis.

[Jabhad]

Very good analysis yaa Juje. Its not a secret sxb, Geedi is the favourite wife here.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

president appionts and dismisses the prime minister. President is in charge of long term affair of government and the prime minister day to day. why is there confusion. also, this Geedi and meles relationship is a little exagerated.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Juje:

Yeey has done everything to get Ethiopian troops to attack Kismayo but with no success. He even went on public Radio to say that Kismaayo has fallen to Al-Qaeeda supporters. Even the Americans failed to heed that call, cause Ethiopia did not approve.

It is Gheedi you are speaking of. Abdullahi Yusuf never spoke publicly about Kismaayo, it was Gheedi that went on the airwaves with screams of "Al Qaeda" takeover.

[Allamagan]

Fully agree with Juje, I think Mahamed Dheere and YEY relationship is soon to be over and its already reached the boiling point according warka suuqa as Mr. M. Dhere wants to be involved each and everything that tfg is doing. For him, his duties and involvements have no boundaries and that itself is major problem for Yey. You see him on everywhere these days and gradually becoming the main public face of the TFG. He is now in charge the police, the NSS, he is the mayor and the govenor, he is pushing for the so-called somali military out of the city and has a greater say of what is happening in Mogadishu. In short he is good student (post-graduate) of ethiopian school of Somalia.

 

On the other hand this time in the eyes of Geedi Camp Mr Yeey is about played-out jack. He has difficulties to work with the like of M Dhere as it happened many times before (bublic fallouts). The crack between the two dogs had long ago appeared and yet again Mohamed Dheere will soon make the headlines. wait and see...

 

Originally posted by Che-Guevara:

Juje....You seem to be expressing how you wish for things to turn out. This could be hardly called an analysis.

Che, what is it that you are not agree with Juje's, if you lets all know!

[Emperor]

What is this? What is the difference between Ghedi and Yey, Juje which one do u prefer to be your ultimate powerful ruler, does it matter if it was Yey or Ghedi thats more powerful than the other, the fact of the truth remains that the TFG is running the show and no more druglords, that time is ove mate... Pick your one if you want?

 

What is more funny is that, the myth roaming around that there is power contest between the two which may utlimately lead to the fall of the TFG, now are we hoping for this? Where is UIC and so the called Insurgency Mujahideen that will bring about his? All your powers have came down to hope for the destruction of the TFG from within... We hope that there may be a power struggle between the top two that may cause...

 

How many may be's will employ to achieve your goal?

[General Duke]

An old ladies tale I tell ya. Nothing new, the whole issue with the opposition is they tend to personalise the issue. I tell you that the TFG is an institution and Yeys is ist current leader, he wont be there forever but for he runs the show. And Geedi is becoming a tough PM who cares not for suicide bombers and Co.

 

The President is RUNNING THE SHOW, infact the man who made the mayor/police chief recommendations in order to rightly give the "Mogadishu Operation" a local face.

 

Qaybdiid is a loyal friend of the President and a man who respects the rule of law. Giving Qaybdiid an important position was on the table for a long time. It was just a matter of time. He faught for his country and helped his goverment defeat Indhocadde and co.

 

Maxamed Dheere was recommended by Yeey. Gheedi was at first against such idea because he thought such move would seem as if his "sub-sub-clan" is taking all the important positions. It was Yeey's recommendation that Maxamed Dheere be made the mayor of Mogadishu. The President understands the rule of law and peace are not easy to achieve. He wanted a local tough man to pacify Mogadishu. Maxamed Dheere was never an enemy of Yeey and he was a guest in Yeey's house in Baidoa before the ICU war. Don't be fooled by " tolka.com" websites out there.

 

Madoobe Looyaan was replaced with Qaybdiid because the President was facing alot of pressure from the Baidoa faction of the TFG. Madoobe was accused of murdering 15 RRA boys in Baidoa. It was just a matter of time before he was replaced. Madoobe was very close to Yeey and was well-liked by Yeey supporters. When Yeey asked what position he would like to be, Madoobe asked to be the ambassador to Kenya. That wasn't possible so he was offered to be the ambassador to Tanzania (another important country next door)

 

Buubaa made a minor mistake. Buubaa messed with Gheedi's brother in-law a.k.a America (The Somali ambassador to Kenya). Buubaa wanted to sack him and Yeey and Gheedi were against that because it would mess up the "clan balance" within the TFG. America is from Gheedi's main clan but his sub-sub-clan is instrumental to getting support in Mogadishu. Yeey advised Buubaa to leave this guy alone.

 

As for the naming of Mogadishu districts it was the Mayor's expertise that the TFG was depending on. This is not Yeey's business and the task was left for the mayor to complete

[Gordon Gekko]

Long time ago I had a good laugh. I just hope the desperate camp can deliver more eye-opening analysis like this one.

[Juje]

Originally posted by The Duke:

Buubaa made a minor mistake. Buubaa messed with Gheedi's brother in-law a.k.a America (The Somali ambassador to Kenya). Buubaa wanted to sack him and Yeey and Gheedi were against that because it would mess up the "clan balance" within the TFG. America is from Gheedi's main clan but his sub-sub-clan is instrumental to getting support in Mogadishu. Yeey advised Buubaa to leave this guy alone.

There you go saxiib, you set out to redicule me, yet you proved my point - the circus is in town. A foreign minister demoted cause he touched a brother-in-law, and yet you claim this is a government.The other thing, explain to me how the sacking of a 'muqalaas' like Cali Amerika will interfere with the balance of power in the TFG, not mentioning his post was an envoy to Nairobi and not Interior minister.

 

Madoobe and his Baydhabo trajic fiasco did not happen recently sxb, it happened long time ago, and if Yeey was going to yield to pressure he would have done so long time ago, especially soon after it. But he did not and he did not give care. He certainly did not want to replace Madoobe as a Chief, and most of all he did not want to replace him with Qeybdiid. You got your facts twisted in there Duke. Qeybdiid is a by product of General Gabre, a figure more senior than Yeey when it comes to Somali affairs.

"The president is running the show"..lol..you dont need to prove that to me sxb, and you dont have to shout about it...everyone who knows anything about Somalia now knows that Yeey is clinging to his only 'your excellency' status and running nothing at all. He is desperately trying to get AU to send more troops to Somalia, cause Ethiopians are not playing his tune. I cant wait the day you make scathing attacks on Geedi and the lot...trust me it is not far.

Originally posted by Che-Guevara:

Juje....You seem to be expressing how you wish for things to turn out. This could be hardly called an analysis.

Trust me sxb if I was giving the the liberty to express my liking they, both Yeey and Geedi, would have been in the gallows by now. Nevertheless this is not a wishful thinking neither hypothetical - but rather a fact that exists, I wish you could produce counter arguments.

 

Originally posted by N/AA:

It is Gheedi you are speaking of. Abdullahi Yusuf never spoke publicly about Kismaayo, it was Gheedi that went on the airwaves with screams of "Al Qaeda" takeover.

I would love to agree that with you Horn, but the overwhelming facts on the ground contradicts it. It is well documented that Geedi is not a man with agenda, directions or has ethics - he is under control and fulfilling the ideals of his master, in this case Zenawi.He only does whaqt he is told and sense of nationalism is not in his vocab. Where as Yeey, the definition of nationalism does not extend beyond his blood-line - and is also a tool, but a clever one who also has an agenda of his own. Only thin time his agenda clashed with his backers.

Now you and I both know the change of guard in Kismaayo had the blessing of General Gabre and it had infuriarated Yeey cause he has lost much in this change, and not Geedi.

 

Now my fellow nomads the rift amid the two stooges is visible from the outer surface, but we dont know how deep it is - and it is deep. However whether it would lead to their downfall is not an alternative, but the questionis what circumstances will emerge when this rifts disrupts the existance of TFG - will the Tigres just produce another set of stooges from their pockets?

[N.O.R.F]

A foreign minister demoted cause he touched a brother-in-law, and yet you claim this is a government?

Indeed

[Abwaan]

Very good analysis Juje and interesting points in your discussion.

[Dhubad.]

War jiraaba cakaaruhu imaan.!

[RedSea]

Gordon, who is desperate? hmmm....

[General Duke]

Juje,

The basic premise is that the President is in conflict with the Prime Minsiter or some how he is not running the show. Buuba and Geedi were close allies till a few months back, remember Buuba played a key role in saving Geedi from the parliament no confidence vote and hence his promotion to Foreign Ministry. All politics is local.

 

Yet as I have said before Qaybdeed has become close to the President and a loyal TFG soldier since the defeat of the courts in which he and Mohamed Dheere playd a role in. This is an important note, when we look at the list of warlords Qaynyare, Ato, Sudi, Finish, Bootaan, none of these are players in the TFG local or national government they hold their MP positions. These men never played any role in the ouster of the courts the Police Chief and Mayor played a role and thus got rewarded.

Qaybdeed position is further strengthened by the fact that his important sub clan have no members in cabinet due to the isolation of their MP’s Ato, Xaaf and Aydeed Jr.

 

Also Madoobe and Hiiraale both from the same sub-clan held two important security posts, this was one of the main points opposition groups made with regards to the clan structure. Hence the Police Chief is now given to the clan of Miogadishu.

 

Also who knows Mogadishu better than Abdi Qaybdeed? After all he was one of the toughest fighters within the city these past 16 years. Thus him, Col Garam Garam and Ali Sacid are playing the key role in securing the city.

Mohamed Dheere, as mayor is also significant because of his well known success in Jowhar, and the failure of Cade Gabow provided an opportunity to this man who is doing wonders.

 

Abdiqasybdeed and Dheere with the interior Minister are close allies of the President of Somalia as well as the PM. Thus the TFG is not divided. Keep wishing old man and the defeated group.