The Obstacles to the Djibouti 'Somali Peace Talks'

[Che -Guevara]

May 09 , 2008

 

The UN Special Envoy to Somalia, Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, made an earnest request to all members of the Somali Diaspora to support the Djibouti ‘technical meeting’ peace talks between the Ethiopian backed Transitional Federal Government and the Asmara based Somali opposition groups. In exchange, he promised them to inform the process of these talks as it develops. Yet, this meeting may face the same deterrents that disoriented the previous Somalia’s warlord peace conferences: Lack of compromise and commitment, foreign interference, and the absence of useful and effectual menace—for the warlords—that could push the peace process forward.

 

As we all recall, one of the main obstacles that rooted out the outcomes of the previous Somalia’s warlord peace conferences was the foreign interference. Every peace process was virtually spoiled; and every step forward was cruelly incapacitated by either a neighboring country, which is mythically frightened to see strong and united Somalia again, or by a wanderer foreign government discontented with the framework or the conclusion of any of those peace processes.

 

In this ‘technical meeting’ not only the fingerprints and the footmarks of both interferers can easily be seen, but also their intensive activities can be detected again. The TFG representatives are seated on the hard-liner’s side of the table to reject any concession about the constitution amendment, the Ethiopian presence in Somalia, and the power sharing deal between the two sides which are the key factors to the success of this meeting.

 

In an interview with the VOA, the TFG leader, Abdullahi Yusuf rejected any future compromise by his government about any above-mentioned three elements and he called “all those opposed to his government terrorists who intend to use force to take over the country’s leadership.” This statement shows the extremely obstinate attitude of him regarding his rugged position towards the peace process. In addition, every meeting that he holds with the foreign leaders, he stresses only the need for military support rather than pressing credible political peace process. Those three fundamental points are the crosspiece of the conflict between the two sides, and they were advisedly neglected in the last four years.

 

Nevertheless, almost every statement from the top TFG leaders regarding the peace process sounded like the same Ethiopian argument: Prevent any peace accord excluding its interest in the region; this strategy solely benefits the Ethiopian regime which compels the TFG to safeguard Ethiopia’s old age hidden agenda in the region.

 

On the other side, the Asmara based opposition groups are not free from foreign designed policies to counteract the Ethiopian influence in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea can only lessen Ethiopia’s overfilled military build-up on its borders by opening another front from the east (Somalia). It is then the Alliance of the Re-liberation which has to fight a war with two objectives: Librating Somalia from the invading Ethiopian army and fulfilling the compelled Eritrean interest. Similarly, this policy solely benefits Eritrea which conditions Somali opposition groups to be seated in Asmara in return to their commitment of safeguarding its interest in the region.

 

Thus even if a peace harmony is signed between the Transitional Federal Government and the Asmara based opposition groups, neither side is capable to carry out any agreement without answering the needs of their protectors; or unless there are penalties allocated by the International Community for a possible breach of any agreement from all stakeholders in the Somali conflict—the TFG, the opposition groups, and also their backers, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

 

The other serious failure that endangers this preliminary peace process is the lack of compromise and commitment between the two groups. It is not that important to sign a landmark peace agreement, but it is the solidity of that accord and its ability to proceed in the days and months to come that has more significance.

 

Thirteen previous peace conferences were held for Somalia’s warlord over the course of the last seventeen years, and yet none of them has successfully ended the Somalia crisis. That is because the objectives of the Somali crisis stakeholders were not reciprocal. All of these conferences shared one thing: Creating further disagreement, bloodshed, and displacement; the consequence was always energizing the differences between the warlords and the outcomes created more bloodsheds and destruction.

 

Thus, valuable give and take between the two sides that should be propped up by the International Community—if they are willing to do so—would speed up ending Somalia crisis. It is a must and necessary this time to have both compromise and commitment in this meeting for the interest of the millions of the Somali people and for the country.

Another serious failure endangers the Djibouti peace negotiation is the absence of useful and effectual menace for war crimes tribunal against leaders of the two groups and their backers to push the peace process forward. This kind of threat can frighten them and may in fact lead to an acceleration of the peace process to find a final solution for the Somalia crisis. It is the only and the effective tool that had never been employed in the entire Somalia peace process.

 

This intimidation can be materialized to put pressure on both sides—the TFG and its ally, the Ethiopian regime, from one side, and the opposition groups and its protector, Eritrea, from the other side—to either accept the peace process and the compromise voluntarily or face dire consequence: The International war crimes tribunal.

 

Conclusion

 

Somali people have no choice but to accept Ambassador Ould Abdallah’s appeal to support the Djibouti ‘technical meeting’ peace process between the Ethiopian backed Transitional Federal Government and the Asmara based Somali opposition groups. They enthusiastically welcome any effort to bring peace and stability back to their country. However, they warn that this Djibouti meeting may face the same obstacles that disoriented the previous peace conferences for Somalia’s warlords: Lack of compromise and commitment between the two sides (Transitional Federal Government and the Asmara based Somali Opposition Groups), foreign interference (mainly Ethiopia and Eritrea), and the absence of useful and effectual means (International war crimes tribunal) that could push the peace process forward. Thus, the success of this meeting depends on what considerations have been given to the sources of these deterrents.

 

Abdirasaq Hashi

[Che -Guevara]

Thus even if a peace harmony is signed between the Transitional Federal Government and the Asmara based opposition groups, neither side is capable to carry out any agreement without answering the needs of their protectors; or unless there are penalties allocated by the International Community for a possible breach of any agreement from all stakeholders in the Somali conflict—the TFG, the opposition groups, and also their backers, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

[xiinfaniin]

Good suggestions!

[Fabregas]

Who would have thought that Eritrea and Ethiopia baa advise( in some cases control) garayn-laha Somalis!

[Faarax-Brawn]

Thirteen previous peace conferences were held for Somalia’s warlord over the course of the last seventeen years, and yet none of them has successfully ended the Somalia crisis.

Of course it all failed. It was a warlord to warlord "Peace Talks". It is(was) and still is an oxymoron to hear a peace initiative from a warlod.How can a warlord be for peace? their whole existence and survival is based on chaos and destruction. Not suprising to most Somalis, the only time they have ever seen peace in the past 20years,was NOT achieved by negotiation or or as a result of peace talks. Argh.

 

Anyway, I want to come forth and i say,although i dont want to be a prophet of doom, I see this particular peace initiative as destined to fail. Mainly because,the chief "negotiotor" and his allies(xabashis) have no track record of wanting peace. They have both been pro war & I dont see Ethiopia being giddy and all about a peaceful Somalia.

 

Unless of course,something dramatic happens,I.E the expulsion of Ethiopians out of Somalia and or a powersharing deal(Kenya style), I dont see this going anywhere.

 

Still,i hope something useful and tangible comes out of this. One way or another,this story must come to an end.

[Geel_jire]

one of the problems with this idea is that Ethiopia and Eritaria do not have the same influence over the respective sides (TFG,resistance) to suggest so, is dishonest & counter productive to any talks.

 

1- Eritiria hosted the resistance for some time , so has sudan and egypt and now djabouti they do not provide funding or arms to the resistance and they certainly do not protect them.

 

2- the TFG owes it's entire existence to the Ethiopians ... A/Y rode into xamar atop an Ethiopian tank ....they can only remain in power at the whim of zenawi .... TFG cannot survive 1 day without the Ethiopians.

 

to point fingers at the resistance and say 'Eriteria is your equivalent of Ethiopia' is complete BS

[xiinfaniin]

Originally posted by Faarax-Brawn:

 

Still,i hope something useful and tangible comes out of this. One way or another,this story must come to an end.

Wakaa nuxurku Faaraxow! Waxaa kale waa uun nin iyo dareenki...

[Che -Guevara]

It is time Somalis to start thinking outside the box and come up suitable alternatives.If history is anything to go by, I just don't see these men sacrifing little and compramise for the sake of peace. And of course, the question remains who has the ownership of this peace process and who do these men answer to?

[Geel_jire]

qof aan rabin nabad iyo xasilooni ma jiro ... lakin at what price ?

[Che -Guevara]

^Qarandiid baa tahay waranle

[Nephissa]

I think we should not waste anymore time discussing "the peace talks" cuz it's failing already on first day..a train wreck waiting to happen..!

 

Somali peace talks open in Djibouti; opposition refuses to hold direct talks with government.

 

 

NAIROBI, Kenya - Talks are underway in Djibouti aimed at reaching a peace deal between the western-backed Somali government and Islamic rebels.

 

Diplomats say officials from the United Nations, the European Union and the African Union are also at the talks. But negotiations appear to have run into trouble from the outset. Rebel representatives are reportedly refusing to meet with officials from the Somali government.

 

Diplomats say the Islamists are also demanding international guarantees that Ethiopian troops will be withdrawn from Somalia.

 

The Ethiopians spearheaded a U.S.-backed invasion that ousted the Islamists in late 2006 and installed the current transitional government.

 

Somali Reconciliation Minister Abdirisaq Ashkir Abdi said the government was "very optimistic" about the peace process.

 

But opposition negotiator Abdirahman Abdi Shakur Warsame describes the talks as a "face-saving event" for the United Nations.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

what are they doing in Jibuti if they don't want to talk?

[xiinfaniin]

Things are going very good. Deplomacy is at work here folks...two parites will eventually talk to each other. Just be patient.

[LANDER]

Originally posted by Geel_jire:

one of the problems with this idea is that Ethiopia and Eritaria do not have the same influence over the respective sides (TFG,resistance) to suggest so, is dishonest & counter productive to any talks.

 

1- Eritiria hosted the resistance for some time , so has sudan and egypt and now djabouti they do not provide funding or arms to the resistance and they certainly do not protect them.

 

2- the TFG owes it's entire existence to the Ethiopians ... A/Y rode into xamar atop an Ethiopian tank ....they can only remain in power at the whim of zenawi .... TFG cannot survive 1 day without the Ethiopians.

 

to point fingers at the resistance and say 'Eriteria is your equivalent of Ethiopia' is complete BS

Excellent point,

Maybe its missing one key component. None of these actions are possible without the involvement of US foreign policy makers. As in no Ethiopian occupation can be sustained without direct monetary and logistic assistance of the U.S. and perhaps a few other western countries. The only tangible change I can see taking place in this environment to be honest, is a shift in US policy with regards to Somalia and the resistance. Many groups are very eager to play the terrorism card in about every third world conflict in order to attract assistance from the U.S. Regardless of whether it is a civil conflict or not, as is clearly the case in Somalia. Perhaps with a change in administration, the state department may take a second look at this and realign their priorities accordingly. These may be premature assumptions of course and which ever administration succeeds GWBs, may continue painting with broad strokes. So for the moment the TFG will keep up this charade, while the population of Somalia continues to suffer human rights abuses. Perhaps some sort of cease fire while humanitarian groups try to address the needs of the displaced and those still remaining in Mogadishu, but that too may be wishful thinking. I must emphasize however the role that the somali diaspora of the U.S. can play in this conflict. It is of the utmost importance that they be heard by all levels of government and not allow a TFG-supporting minority to blur the facts on the ground. I have seen a few video clips from Minneapolis of some small rallies protesting the invasion of Somalia by a few new comers to the U.S. and those brothers did the best they could to express themselves when interviewed by the media, but that is not enough. The most educated amongst you must work tirelessly to spread awareness of the situation in Somalia and the cause behind this catastrophe in the most intelligent, clear and succinct manner possible. Your country needs you today more than ever, angry exchanges with the those who see their fortunes tied with the TFG for reasons of tribal affiliation is a clear waste of time. The great majority of somalis do not support this invasion and it only takes a few hard working members of the community to mobilize the masses that today feel powerless, depressed and catch themselves watching events develop on TV and radio wondering if they will ever wake up from this nightmare.