Somalia: Addressing the Symptom rather than the Illness in the country

[Jacaylbaro]

The concern shown by various governments including the United States, regarding numerous acts of piracy in the Gulf of Aden, is a step in the right direction. However, in similar crisis situations, it seems that the West and other maritime interests would rather address a symptom of the problem instead of the root cause.

 

There has not been a functioning government in Somalia since the collapse of the Siad Barre Regime in 1991. Needless to say

 

that there is no way to address the social and financial problems of the struggling fishermen.The breakdown in law and order in the country has created a situation where piracy has become a viable means to support families and communities.

 

So why have the western and other powers suddenly become galvanized to take action in this situation?Well, the numbers just happen to speak for themselves.

 

In this calendar year, over 90 vessels have been seized in the Gulf of Aden . The payment of subsequent ransoms to free the hostages have netted the pirates an estimated US$ 150 million so far this year. Several nations have since deployed warships in an attempt to interdict this trade.We have heard that this is an attempt to solve the piracy issue, but what about the root causes?

 

Recent reports further indicate that the Transitional National Government (TNG) is on the verge of collapse. Its influence has been degraded to the point that it only maintains power in both Mogadishu and Baidoa. So if the TNG collapses as many are assuming, what will be the next course of action? That is the question many analysts continue to ponder.

 

In early 2009 the breakaway region of Somaliland will hold presidential and parliamentary elections. This region has had massive political campaign to show that it is the stable part of Somalia. The region of Puntland has been aggressively targeting the pirates as well. The Islamists are also in control of Southern Somalia as well, meaning that the "Old State" of Somalia may not return at all.

 

If there is a solution that unites the perpetually clan driven politics of Somalia into a central government, that would be a welcome news. But it appears that the two year long effort to have the TNG restore legitimacy to Somalia is failing and could collapse in the near future. It is possible that if the TNG falls then the incidents of piracy could actually increase both in number and in the specific search of targets.

 

Whether or not the TNG fails may not be a bad option. Having three regional governments (Somaliland, Puntland and the Islamist South) with strong central powers and appropriate international backing and/or aid, may be something that has to be considered. This could be the impetus for some form of intervention.

 

Failure to address the situation now could have tan impact on the already volatile neighboring countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Eritrea and Yemen. And this will not be a problem that could be easily solved by throwing money at it. This will require some nation building on a scale that is yet to be determined.

 

So it appears that the easy answer is to have naval patrols in the Gulf of Aden. However, when will the real issue be addressed? Only time and the unfolding efforts of global actors in the region will tell.