Baashi Posted September 14, 2007 It will take Tigre-speaking juntas to put an end to Somali misery Waa-Siday-Tahay Magazine By Inna-Xaawo Col-U-Joog Looks like Somali players have their political safety net all figured out. You fall from grace from one bandwagon and bang! you jump onto the other one going to the opposite direction. It’s old tired game reminiscent in the cold war era. The funny thing is it really works. Somali conflict is entering in a new stage. Sides have been formed. States have shown their hands. And politicians are a thin topaz away from getting seen in their baby suits. It has been a proxy war all along. What’s changed now is the consolidation of both domestic and foreign support for or against the contesting clans. Egypt, Djibouti, Yemen, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Gulf states have done their share of shoring up one group over the other. But this time around Uncle Sam has dropped his big hammer down and on one side and declared the other as the legit friendly regime IC can do business with. TFG has just concluded what it called a grand reconciliation congress. Representatives from many clans met in a fortified compound secured by clans loyal to TFG and its ally Ethiopian forces. Ironically the venue of the congress has been attacked, repeatedly, by one of Somali clans. Considering the fact that the trouble makers boycotted the meeting and the attendee had no militia under their command, no political office under their belt, and weighed no political issues, rendered that effort a meaningless exercise. In Asmara another congress is in progress. The only thing that unites the participants there is their grudge against the top brass in Mogadishu and their big bad bully ally. That aside, they have no other practical plans that can take war-weary Somalis to the other side of the bridge – post-conflict era. In Benadir, TFG has declared that clans have made up with each other and all is good and well – with the usual caveat – except the “Qaran-Diid”. In Asmara, participants have issued an ultimatum. The message from that gathering is clear: Ethiopians must withdraw and TFG has to relinquish power or else. The first is trying to avoid sharing power with a group it (with Ethio and Uncle Sam’s might) has defeated in the battlefield. The latter are counting on the rank and file of shabaabs and disgruntled young clan militia they have no control over and no means to support. Both sides have their domestic audiences. Sound bites are extremely effective. The Daba-Dhilif resonates pretty well so is the Qaran-Diid. Both groups have their regional friends. Both sides of the conflict are played like a boojo! Eritrean underdogs know how to poke a finger on the giant’s underbelly. And in turn Ethiopians found a way to put the pressure on the Eritrea. Still both states have shown a willingness to avoid another unnecessary border war. Instead they have shown an uncompromising appetite to undermine each other’s interest inside Somali proper and at the expense of Somalis. At this stage the fadhi-ku-heshiis consensus is - - in order to stabilize Somalia: A) Eritrea and Ethiopia have to commit to the stabilization project. B) Other regional first-line border-states have to sign on to the demilitarization/hands off effort. C) All regional states including Ethiopia and Eritrea have to put the pressure on their Somali allies for Somalis to enjoy peace. D) UN, AU, and AL have to have the will to invest the resources needed to cement any gains would-be held reconciliation effort will have produced. Anything short of that will guarantee a hard long ride for the Gees aka warlords and their sympathizers. You and I, in the meantime, will keep on doing what we do the best look on this cut throat conflict from a distance and.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
