China readies for future U.S. fight

[Nin-Yaaban]

By CNN Senior China Analyst Willy Wo-Lap Lam

Tuesday, March 25, 2003

 

Beijing has said the war in Iraq would lead to a humanitarian catastrophe.

 

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- The Iraqi war has convinced the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership that some form of confrontation with the U.S. could come earlier than expected.

 

Beijing has also begun to fine-tune its domestic and security policies to counter the perceived threat of U.S. "neo-imperialism."

 

As more emphasis is being put on boosting national strength and cohesiveness, a big blow could be dealt to both economic and political reform.

 

That the new leadership has concluded China is coming up against formidable challenges in the short to medium term is evident from recent statements by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

 

Hu indicated earlier this year Beijing must pay more attention to global developments so that "China make good preparations before the rainstorm ... and be in a position to seize the initiative."

 

Wen also pointed out in the first meeting of the State Council, or cabinet, last Saturday the leadership "must keep a cool head."

 

"We must boost our consciousness about disasters and downturns -- and think about dangers in the midst of [apparent] safety," he said.

 

Alarm bells about a deteriorating international situation have been sounded by the CCP's secretive Leading Group on National Security (LGNS), which coordinates policies in areas including diplomacy, defense and energy.

 

The LGNS, which is headed by Hu, has since early this month called a series of meetings to discuss ways to handle the Iraqi crisis.

 

In the near term, of course, the focus is on the impact of rising oil prices -- and on the need to build up a strategic oil reserve that can last at least 30 days.

 

However, economic concerns are not the top priority. Given the likelihood oil prices will drop after the resolution of the conflict, some government economists are saying the war's impact on this year's economic performance will be insubstantial.

 

Officials even cite the safe haven theory to predict foreign direct investment flowing into China will exceed the record $52 billion last year.

 

Of more concern to the LGNS is the perceived expansion of American unilateralism if not neo-imperialism.

 

As People's Daily commentator Huang Peizhao pointed out last Saturday, U.S. moves in the Middle East "have served the goal of seeking world-wide domination."

 

State Council think-tank member Tong Gang saw the conflict as the first salvo in Washington's bid to "build a new world order under U.S. domination."

 

Chinese strategists think particularly if the U.S. can score a relatively quick victory over Baghdad, it will soon turn to Asia -- and begin efforts to "tame" China.

 

It is understood the LGNS believes the U.S. will take on North Korea -- still deemed a "lips-and-teeth" ally of China's -- as early as this summer.

 

These developments have prompted China to change its long-standing geopolitical strategy, which still held true as late as the 16th CCP Congress last November.

 

Until late last year, Beijing believed a confrontation with the U.S. could be delayed -- and China could through hewing to the late Deng Xiaoping's "keep a low profile" theory afford to concentrate almost exclusively on economic development.

 

"Now, many cadres and think-tank members think Beijing should adopt a more pro-active if not aggressive policy to thwart U.S. aggression," said a Chinese source close to the diplomatic establishment.

 

He added hard-line elements in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had advocated providing weapons to North Korea to help Pyongyang defend itself against a possible U.S. missile strike at its nuclear facilities. Forestalling the challenge Hu was elected president of China by the NPC this month. Hu was elected president of China by the NPC this month.

 

Even less hawkish experts are advocating beefing up the national security apparatus.

 

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) economist Yang Fan pointed out the recent global flare-ups had alerted China to the imperative of improving national security and cohesiveness.

 

"Equal weight should be given to economic development and national security," Yang said. "As we become more prosperous, we must concentrate our forces [on safeguarding national safety]."

 

What is China doing to forestall the perceived U.S. challenge?

 

Firstly, the CCP leadership is fostering nationalistic sentiments, a sure-fire way to promote much-needed cohesiveness.

 

While not encouraging anti-U.S. demonstrations, Beijing has informed the people of what the media calls "increasingly treacherous international developments."

 

This explains what analysts including Beijing scholars considered the unexpectedly virulent official reaction to the start of the Iraq war.

 

Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said the U.S.-led military campaign had "trampled on the U.N. constitution and international law" and that it would lead to regional and global instability.

 

Equally tough statements were issued by the National People's Congress (NPC) and the advisory Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

 

Major official media such as Xinhua and People's Daily have run dozens of articles and analyses whose gist is that, in the words of commentator Li Xuejiang, the invasion of Iraq had "damaged the international order."

 

In an apparent departure from Beijing's cautious attitude at the beginning of the Iraqi crisis, authorities last weekend allowed a group of nationalist intellectuals to hold a conference condemning U.S. "hegemonism."

 

The corollary of boosting national cohesiveness could be the suppression of dissent, particularly politically incorrect views expressed by "pro- West" intellectuals.

 

The warning and punishment that party authorities recently meted out to several Beijing and provincial publications may augur a relatively prolonged period of ideological control in the interest of promoting "unity of thinking."

 

On the economic front, the authorities may play up the imperative of concentrating resources to boost China's "economic security" and "energy security."

 

"The Wen leadership is checking out why earlier plans to build up a strategic oil reserve failed to materialize last year, when prices were much lower," said a Beijing-based party source.

 

"It is possible that bucking the overall trend of market reforms, Beijing may bring back more government fiats to sectors deemed to have strategic and national-security implications."

 

It is instructive that in his 90-minute long interview with the international media last week, Wen was quite reticent about boosting economic reform such as the liberalization of state-owned enterprises.

 

In accordance with the theory of "the synthesis of [the needs of] war and peace," civilian economic projects in areas including infrastructure may be planned will the requirements of the defense forces in mind.

 

On the military front, the Iraqi conflict will kick start another season of accelerated modernization of weaponry.

 

Diplomatic analysts in Beijing said PLA officers and strategists had been scrutinizing the latest hardware used by American and British forces.

 

They pointed out the PLA's astonishment at the wizardry of American firearms used in the 1991 Gulf War was a major factor behind the Chinese army's aggressive modernization drive through the 1990s.

 

Academy of Military Sciences (AMS) expert Peng Guanqian pointed out that the Iraqi war would provide the Pentagon with "a testing ground for new military equipment and strategies."

 

The Liberation Army Daily last Friday quoted unnamed officers from the Army and the People's Armed Police as saying the PLA must "quicken the pace of military modernization."

 

Such developments could in turn hasten a possible showdown between the two countries that harbor deep-seated mistrust of each other even in relatively tranquil times.

[life101]

I wont be around to see war between China and the US,lol. Can u imagine how it would be like?

[X]

China is the next superpower to reckon with; the Americans can't do anything about China's ascension to that elite status. China might even surpass America in every front; it's economy is uneffected by global happenings and is growing at a formidable and respectable rate. If things worldwide continue with the current state and pace, China will emerge as the next undisputable superpower in the next 5 decades.

[Paltalk]

TO: X

 

If the U.S does not collapse as a result of major economic downturn, It would be hard to reckon China to emerge as undisputable super power. U.S has massive arsenal of modern weapons. In the event of war there is no any other nation that can challenge American's fire power. Interms of modern weaponry China is very behind. But no doubt both countries posses formidable nuclear arsenal,It would be unlikely for them to use conventional War. China's ambition of ascension with the pace of modern world is closely being watched. China is reckoned to have about 26 nuclear war heads where the U.S has as much as it can destroy the whole world twenty times. can you imagine that kind of scenario.!

[X]

Paltalk,

 

In the event of war between China and America, there will be no survivor; it will be mutual self-destruction for both. America might have more conventional and unconventional weaponry than China, but China has enough unconventional weaponry which ensures that itself and America (and maybe the world) dig their own graves. In fact, China has more chances to survive from an unconventional war; it has more than 3 times of America's population.

[DAD]

Originally posted by X:

Paltalk,

 

In the event of war between China and America, there will be no survivor; it will be mutual self-destruction for both. America might have more conventional and unconventional weaponry than China, but China has enough unconventional weaponry which ensures that itself and America (and maybe the world) dig their own graves. In fact, China has more chances to survive from an unconventional war; it has more than 3 times of America's population.

Hi X.

 

What you said would've sadly been true, IF it was Russia not China. China isn't really that powerful, and probably will loose any nuclear war with the US. The reason for that is, first it doesnt' have that many Nukes it can target with the US (as Paltalk pointed out), and whateva nuclear it has is based on 50yr old technology that it will be shot down before it reaches its target. And if the US builds that Missile Defense thingy, it could mean not even Russia's Missiles would work.

[Paltalk]

TO: X

 

I dont' think in the event of unconventional war between China and U.S, china would survive eventhough it has more than one billion people. Prior to Sept 11, the U.S beefed up it's security apparatus to forestall any threat with the smallest degree from any Nation Small or big. U.S has very effective security system unlike China. It is certain that U.S has the capabilites of averting missile war heads in a matter of minutes. The missile sheild that we hear from the news now days is very effective interms of destroying or intercepting another hostile missile it can be fired from commercial planes, sattlelite, war ships, or the ground. Do you think china posses all those abilities. I don't think so. not at this time of this age!

[X]

DAD & Paltalk,

 

We're only speculators; at the end of the day our speculations amount to little or nothing. We don't factually know the true strength of America or China; what we know about America or China, we know it through the West's media outlets and intelligence apparatuses which both have recently been discredited.

 

One thing is clear; America as an empire will collapse if its economy collapses. We all know America's economy today is in shamples; the result of a few factors which doesn't include a full-scale war against a formidable enemy. The Missile Shield program you're talking about haven't been proven to work. Even if it works, the Chinese could devise a technology that aborts the program's mission. North Korea's strength today can be compared to 1/10th of China's strength, yet America can't toy with North Korea. Though America will certainly win a war against North Korea (with China's blessing), it will certainly lead to the collapse of America's economy. You don't know what the North Koreans are capable of. Imagine couple nuclear warheads striking New York and the Pentagon. Even if the warheads are intercepted (Patriot missiles or others), it will leave nuclear clouds that will affect generations to come and change life in America forever.

 

America's strength is much over-hyped and over-sexed. China's strength is underestimated, but the truth is no one accurately knows its true strength.

[Thinkerman]

True X, although i would say any potential clashes that might occur between china and the established hyper-power that is now america and its multi-national corps ((who thrust for yet more and more access to more markets)) will occur on such platforms as the WTO and by proxy geo-poltical bouts as you alledued to with regards to N.Korea

 

Both america and china have quite good bi-lateral relations already and alot of senior ranking officals visit each others countries regularly so I cannot see any of the 2 dirctly challanging the other for now, however much america might 'huff' and 'puff' and threaten to blow the world up

[DAD]

Hey if China is so powerful, why havent' they not invaded Taiwan yet? The least they could do is, invade that little small island and bring it back into the Union.

 

The reason they haven't done that yet is because, the Chinese military dont have the military capability to invade or even defeat Taiwan in combat. Just shows you how much far behind the Chinese are lagging in terms of technology. What arsenal they have now is probably based on 60yr old technology, and is no match for Taiwanese, or American equipment.

[Yusufaddie]

Hey Dad have you ever thought why Taiwan doesn't completely come out and declare themselves independent, does the taiwanese Gov. know china's military is not capable, or perhaps they know something you don't.

[X]

DAD,

 

You seem to have fed yourself too much Hollywood cheap propaganda. Nothing is what it seems. If you explore history, read declassified facts and events of the past 50 years, you'll realize nothing is what it seemed to be for the average person. Some decades down the road, the truth will emerge and will sure surprise you. Most of what you read and know about the West isn't true, just as everthing that shines isn't gold.

[Zakariye]

s/alaykum

very interesting and misleading at the same time, well i hope we don't see a billion chinese crossing over every land and sea in the world, so what we need right now is to let them stay in their own land, otherwise Paltalk and Dad you two will be compelled to learn chinese language,as a first language not english walaahi, plz don't wish what you don't want.

 

c/salaam

[DAD]

Originally posted by Yusufaddie:

Hey Dad have you ever thought why Taiwan doesn't completely come out and declare themselves independent, does the taiwanese Gov. know china's military is not capable, or perhaps they know something you don't.

Hi Yussuf.

 

If the Taiwanese have managed to live 50yrs+ without any Chinese rule, I call that independence. Its been almost 50yrs, and they still havent' joined the mainland. If the Chinese had anything threating about them, they would have done something about the Taiwanese.

 

Originally posted by X:

DAD,

 

You seem to have fed yourself too much Hollywood cheap propaganda. Nothing is what it seems. If you explore history, read declassified facts and events of the past 50 years, you'll realize nothing is what it seemed to be for the average person. Some decades down the road, the truth will emerge and will sure surprise you. Most of what you read and know about the West isn't true, just as everthing that shines isn't gold.

Hi. X.

 

You have been reading up on declassified stuff huh ? How did you get your hands on these things? Does it say anywhere, the terrible defeat the Chinese have suffered on the hands of the Vietnamese? Yes, the Chinese have been defeated by the Vietnamese (can't remember the date) during a border clash.

[X]

DAD,

 

Obviously, you don't live in America, else you would have heard about FOIA (Freedom of Information Act). Under this Act, classified informations are declassified after few decades. It's no brainer; anyone can access or request informations under the FOIA.

 

About "the terrible defeat the Chinese have suffered on the hands of the Vietnamese", never heard about it. Care leave a link or two substantiating your claim? What I know is the Chinese helped the Vietnamese defeat America.