The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash

[Juje]

Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash

Nov 27, 2006

 

Summary

 

Militias of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) reinforced the central Somalian town of Abudwaaq on Nov. 27 to seal off the region from Ethiopian forces bogged down by flooding farther south. War between Ethiopia and the SICC remains imminent, though not likely before the rainy season ends in mid-December.

 

Analysis

 

Militias loyal to Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) reinforced the Somalian town of Abudwaaq on Nov. 27, a move meant to prevent Ethiopian forces facing severe flooding farther south from moving into central Somalia. Seasonal rains, expected to continue until mid-December, will delay a clash between Ethiopian and SICC forces

 

Greater than normal seasonal rains, known as the Deyr, have made many roads almost impassable in parts of southern Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia. This situation is particularly acute in Ethiopia, which must maintain an overland supply route to its forces protecting Somalia's interim government in Baidoa. On the other side, the SICC faces the easier task of supplying its militias in areas of southern and central Somalia that are relatively unaffected by flooding. The first Somalian town north of the flood-affected areas, Abudwaaq has become a military focal point and potential battleground in the brewing conflict.

 

Facing the threat of a full Ethiopian invasion -- a threat that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi alluded to Nov. 23 when he addressed his country's parliament, calling Somalia's Islamists a clear and present danger -- the SICC made the first move to Abudwaaq. The reinforcement of Abudwaaq also holds out the promise of creating stronger linkages between the SICC and ethnic Somalis in Ethiopia's ****** region, which lies just across the border from Abudwaaq. Gaining support among anti-Ethiopian insurgents in the ****** is a declared goal of the SICC in its efforts to create a Greater Somalia. However, this goal exacerbates Addis Ababa's dire fears over regime survival that have provoked its continued intervention in Somalia.

 

Although the severe Deyr rains mean that war is unlikely to occur before mid-December, Ethiopia is not likely to wait long after the rains end to attack the SICC. From Addis Ababa's perspective, the longer it waits to attack, the better prepared the SICC will be to fight.

 

The wait is on for the floodwaters to recede.

[Gabbal]

The first Somalian town north of the flood-affected areas, Abudwaaq has become a military focal point and potential battleground in the brewing conflict.

That was the intention of the ICU when they went into Caabudwaaq, but that is not the case. I know personally that this will not be the case.

 

There is a reason why Caabudwaaq decided not to resist the ICU and why the armed militias who could have clashed with the ICU were sent out of the city and into Ethiopia itself.

 

There is also a reason why Ethiopia decided not to surround Caabudwaaq like a plague of locusts but instead decided to send over a 100 cars through Galdagob into Gaalkacyo and are now presumably just north of Bandiiradley. There is also another reason why they have reinforced to the greatest extent possible those of theirs in Balanbale area sending the ICU into a flight of panic in a bid to also reinforce their men around Guri-Ceel.

 

All this has to do with the reason why the commander of the ICU in central regions, Cago-weyne, left Caabudwaaq in a hurry when he realized their plan to make Caabudwaaq the frontline was not working and is now himself back in Bandiiradley.

 

Let me tell you that there are quite a number of smart people in Caabudwaaq who have absolutely no interest in seeing blood and carnage in their streets as a result of of a fight they neither care about nor support and have no stakes in.

 

Tell me you did not expect them to sit around without working under the scenes?

[Ahmed_Guree]

Let me tell you that there are quite a number of smart people in Caabudwaaq who have absolutely no interest in seeing blood and carnage in their streets as a result of of a fight they neither care about nor support and have no stakes in.

but arent those smart fellows responsible for inciting a blood birth in Buale which was thwarted.

[XOG-ogaal]

Horn we need to leave caabudwaq alone. they will do whatever is best for them i don't think people like bare should go into thier business.

 

read this news

Warar lagu kalsoon yahay oo aanu ka helay shaqsiyaad ku dhaw Wasiirka Gaashindhigga Barre Aaden Shire oo ka gaabsadey in la shaaciyo Magacooda ayaa u sheegay Allwadani Caawa in uu jiro Hub laga filayo Dawladda Itoobiya kaas oo la gayn doono Caabudwaaq iyo Baardheere si loogu hubeeyo Maleeshiyo daacad u ah Barre Hiiraalle oo ka soo jeeda Beesha ****.

 

Wasiirka Gaashandhigga oo hada ku sugan Baydhabo ayaa waxaa ku go'doonsan Gaalkacyo Wafdi uu u diray Deg. Caabudwaaq si ay halkaasi uga hirgaliyaan Saldhig Ciidan balse intii aanay gaarin halkaasi ayaa waxaa qabsadey Deg. Caabudwaaq Ciidamo daacad u ah Maxaakiimta Islaanka.

 

Wasiirka Gaashandhigga Mudane Barre Hiiraalle ayaa la sheegaya in uu si ba'an u diidan yahay heshiisyo nabadeed oo ka socda Deg. Caabudwaaq oo uusan waligiis waxba tarin tan iyo intii uu gacanta ku hayey Dekadda Hodanka ah ee Kismaayo.

 

isku soo wada duubo Wasiirnimadda Barre ayaa luuq ku jidha hadii uusan si degdega u keenin Ciidamo u dagaalama Mabda'a C/llaahi Yuusuf iyo Tigreega ee uu hormuudka u yahay Mr. Melaz Sanaawi.

[Gabbal]

Barre yaa Caabudwaaq ka xigo? Allwadani is a tabloid sxb. They have been anti-Barre ever since the Jamac Adden Dhere fiasco some years ago. It was in their interest to propagate themselves as Court supporters and continue to badmouth the man. I find them despicable.

[XOG-ogaal]

which mean sub sub clan owns that site and his sub clan doesnot control caabudwaq. he is welcome but don't expect for him to be the leader of the city or the people for that matter.

 

horn i'm sure you lafta qabiilkaaga oo iskaleh that website

[Gabbal]

"horn i'm sure you lafta qabiilkaaga oo iskaleh that website"

 

Ma fahmin?

[XOG-ogaal]

i'm sorry i meant you know lafta iskaleh sitekaas

 

hmmmm jamac adden dheere

[General Duke]

^^^I congradulate the people in general and elders in particular of Cabud-Waaq for not allowing battles to take place inside their city..

 

All this noise wont last, just dont destroy our city.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by xox ogaal:

i'm sorry i meant you know lafta iskaleh sitekaas

 

hmmmm jamac adden dheere

Are they the reer Abti?

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by General Duke:

All this noise wont last, just dont destroy our city.

On the money sxb.

[XOG-ogaal]

i think so

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by xox ogaal:

i think so

Thanks for confirming.

 

I have known it from the get when you alleged your family was in support of the ICU coming to Caabudwaaq. Reer abtigaa ballee raadinayeen balse alla mahadle hadii laga hortagin ee laakiin laga siyaasad badiyey.

 

Waa iga kaftan abti.

[XOG-ogaal]

bare is my abti too....he from gramma said but the really abtis are the once that working with icu are from mommy side ......i personally don't support icu because of indhacade and i also don't support because the representive of south .....waa dad aa waba qorikarin may kutaalaa hadii waqad lagu siiyo oo aadan aqrinkarin .....xoole bilaa xoole orod geela raad people like furux in the government and qanyare as longs as they are there i will not support the government