After the bombings ... what now for Somalia?

[Jabhad]

After the bombings ... what now for Somalia?

 

 

/Stephanie Wolters speaks to Richard Cornwell, senior research fellow of

the African Security Analysis Programme at the Institute for Security

Studies, about the evolving crisis in Somalia./

 

*Would Ethiopia have gone into Somalia if it had not had United States

support?*

It would have been possible, but the provision of satellite intelligence

[by the Americans] is a massive force multiplier -- drones, real-time

intelligence … they’ve had them flying over Mogadishu, everything.

 

 

*Why now?*

I think it was decided at least a month before they went ... But

interestingly, we’re picking up distinct signs of discord between [the

department of] state and the Pentagon … I think that the state

department is secretly upset. I think that there must have been a lot of

people in state saying, ‘Look, we’ve got to get these guys talking,

that’s the only way forward.’ And now the military, having put its size

11 boots in there, is turning around saying, ‘Well now, we’ve got to

have a peace and stabilisation mission’ and state are turning around and

saying, ‘How are we going to do that? What sort of political and

diplomatic hook do we have?’

 

 

The securocrats in the administration [supported the warlords]. Then

they burnt their fingers, so they handed it back to the diplomats to see

what they could sort out. Then the Islamic Courts over-reached

themselves and the hardliners started to get more and more of a say and

they started to besiege the Transitional Federal Government [TFG] and

started to think about knocking it over instead of talking to it, so

they put Ethiopia up against a wall: what do we do? Do we come in and

say, ‘No you don’t’ or do we take them out? And they decided, let’s take

them out.

[b/]

*What if Ethiopia did withdraw in the coming weeks? Is that likely?*

Yes it is likely, especially if its people start getting sniped and shot

at. Yes, it will have to leave some forces in to back up the TFG because

it hasn’t got anything of its own … There is no reason why Ethiopia

should continue to stay. It can keep in a training unit, and advising

unit, but basically it’s done what it wanted to do and it can go back

and do it again any time.

 

 

*What should happen next?*

Some people are saying that there is consensus now in the international

community that we need a stabilised Somalia -- I am not sure I believe

that.

 

There are two things here. Are we taking about a stabilised Somalia for

the Somalis’ sake, or are we talking about denying a base to al-Qaeda?

These are two entirely different things. And in my view, Ethiopia and

the Americans, though they have to pay lip service to the creation of a

stable Somali state, would be quite happy to have a fairly weak state

capable of policing its borders or its territory with a bit of

international help. Ethiopia either needs Somalia as a protectorate or

as a zone into which it can go and do the necessary from time to time

and that is not going to harbour Ethiopia’s enemies, domestic or foreign [/]

... And if you’ve got to weigh up as an international diplomat ... if

you’ve got a choice to make … if you’re stuck with a decision, do we

push on Darfur or do we push on Somalia? Darfur is the one.

 

 

*What would it take to stabilise Somalia?*

First you have to get Abdullahi Yusuf [President of the Somali TFG] and

his people to talk to elements within the Islamic Courts and the **Southern clans**

. The fact that they’ve now got the old prime minister, Abdul Kassim

Salaad, who was the head of the Transitional National Government [TNG],

saying that the Mogadishu people must come in behind the TFG now, that’s

a step in the right direction … There are also some Islamic Courts’

leaders who have gone off to Yemen, who are willing to talk. But with

the American action one has to ask: what now? Does this not make it

rather difficult to act as honest broker? I’d have thought it makes it

impossible. Abdullahi Yusuf doesn’t really see why he should negotiate

away power. He can use the al-Qaeda card, as he’s used it rather

successfully in the past, and can walk away with goodies -- or at least

he doesn’t lose them.

 

 

*What is the state of the Union of Islamic Courts?*

They’re dispersed … I don’t know to what extent they were an operational

threat. I don’t think anybody does -- it’s like the weapons of mass

destruction. When the American military starts talking about credible

intelligence the only sensible thing to do is roll your eyes. And the

fact that the intelligence [about the location of the al-Qaeda

operatives] was provided by Ethiopians on the ground should have made

them do a double take, especially before using weapons that would turn

anything into a a pulpy mess that won’t be identifiable except through DNA.

 

 

*What should happen now to stabilise the situation?*

You’ve got to get a force in there quickly, they say, but under what

conditions? We know that the political situation on the ground is likely

to defy analysis by outsiders. It’s a rapidly shifting kaleidoscope of

alliances of convenience. It’s not just clan versus clan, it’s clan

versus sub-clan, and not to forget the business interests.

 

 

Everybody looks at religion and clan, but everybody forgets that the

Islamic Courts were set up by certain business interests in Mogadishu

and these business interests were at odds with the business interests of

the Mogadishu warlords. Now the Mogadishu warlords are back in their

mansions.

 

 

The real urgency of the situation is to make sure that there is

sufficient stability and safety for humanitarian agencies to get to the

people on the ground. It’s not happening and it’s not featuring very

prominently in the debate.

 

 

The European Union is taking the most sensible stance. They are saying,

‘Yes we need a force, but as a precondition for assistance to the TFG,

it has to broaden its base by talking to everybody.’ The Americans, of

course, have said no such thing and [british Prime Minister Tony] Blair

has been notably stuck in mid-Atlantic.

 

*But even with the best will in the world, how quickly can you get a

force into Mogadishu? *

Months. By that time the situation has changed again. The worst thing

that we’re doing is constantly looking at this through the al-Qaeda

lens, through the terrorism lens. We are not going to make sense of

what’s happening on the ground if we do that. We are not going to make

sense of that if we say that Ethiopia intervened and prevented the

formation of a Taliban state.

[Jabhad]

At least 100 Somali nomads killed by airstrikes in south Somalia

 

Mogadishu, 12 January - Sheikh Abdullahi Ali Malabon, heading a group of elders and residents of southern Somalia said that some 100 members of local animal grooming families had been killed in airstrikes which the Ethiopian government and the US say were aimed only at al-Qaeda terrorists. From the ground it was not clear to local witnesses whether the strikes were launched by US fighter planes or by Ethiopian helicopters. Malabon said that many others had been wounded. Some of the bodies have been found burnt to the extent that they could not yet be identified. A considerable amount of livestock was also killed during what locals describe as indiscriminate attacks on the nomads. The Ethiopian government and the US declined to comment on the deaths of civilians. Meanwhile a senior US official admitted that the US airstrikes failed to kill any of the top al-Qaeda leaders accused of terror attacks in east Africa.

 

 

Ethiopian tanks at the Mogadishu airport in December

[Jabhad]

Business Day (Johannesburg)

 

EDITORIAL

January 11, 2007

Posted to the web January 11, 2007

 

Johannesburg

 

IT IS difficult to think of an upside to America's military intervention in Somalia. Despite mounting international criticism over its attack on suspected al-Qaeda targets in Somalia, US forces continue to pound villages in a self-appointed quest to root out terrorism.

 

Little good can come of it for Somalia. The absence of a properly functioning state in Somalia poses a security danger on its own. But the chance that the Islamists will regroup with foreign support and that clan violence will break out is now the real threat to the Horn of Africa. In the face of renewed uncertainty, clans in Mogadishu are re-arming and preparing to defend their turf.

 

 

The Ethiopian-led and US-backed overthrow of the Union of Islamic Courts and its replacement by the transitional government is no guarantee of stability. And the US attacks on sites where fleeing Somali Islamists and al-Qaeda operatives gathered could inflame the situation. The Islamists had been inching towards talks with the transitional government, but the US attacks could now strengthen the hands of extremists and their calls for jihad.

 

As a temporary member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, SA could be tempted to play a leading mediation role and provide troops for peacekeeping in Somalia. Government should be wary of any direct intervention in this cauldron -- our immediate interests are not at stake here and we have too much to lose from a poorly conceived involvement.

 

Ethiopia -- fully aware that its continued presence in Somalia is widely perceived as that of a foreign occupier -- is keen to exit as quickly as possible. The African Union (AU) and the UN are proposing that an African peace force fill what they view as a security gap. African countries, fearful of the dangers of any entanglement in Somali clan politics, are justifiably cautious about any involvement.

 

So far Uganda is the only country that has said it will provide troops to a peace force for Somalia, but this is by no means certain as any decision will require parliamentary approval. SA, Nigeria, and Benin have been approached by the AU and have said they will consider it.

 

The entire concept of a peace- keeping force may be misconceived. The idea is that the force should help the interim government of President Abdullahi Yusuf provide security. But there's a risk that such a force would be viewed by Somalis as taking the place of the Ethiopians, rather than as being neutral peacekeepers. SA has said it will insist on agreement among the clans before it agrees to become part of any peace mission for Somalia. The question then becomes what sort of agreement is possible and whether it will be a durable one.

 

Somali clans have traditional procedures for reaching agreement on contentious issues, although it has not helped them form a government for the past 15 years. Foreign intervention may have also disrupted the homegrown process, but the agreement of clans and their elders is a prerequisite to the formation of any functioning government.

 

 

 

Any such agreement will be a difficult exercise in the absence of a group that has credibility as a mediator. The AU has backed the transitional government and has, through its silence, sided with Ethiopia on its intervention. Somalis are likely to be suspicious of any mediation moves or any peace force coming from its neighbours. The further question that has to be raised is, if indeed the Somali clans can reach an accord, why do they need a peacekeeping force ?

 

In the face of growing international pressure for an African peacekeeping force, SA and others on the continent must be mindful of the huge challenges such a mission would pose. Many in Africa will be mindful of the failed attempt by US and UN peacekeepers to bring about order when anarchy broke out in 1991.

 

If it is to have any chance of success, it will have to support a national reconciliation process rather than propping up the government. Ultimately, the solution to Somalia's problems will have to come from within the country itself.

[Castro]

SomaliYouthLeague-ow, it's hard to read all of these news articles and not get depressed. Thank you for keeping us updated.

[Jabhad]

^True sxb. Who would have thought Somalia would be an occupied country. No warning such a dark day in Somali history was in the making.

The Ethio-American invasion of Somalia will not last sxb and I look forward confidently to the day when Somalia will be free again IA.