Is it over for Mogadishu's warlords?

[Wiilo]

IRIN) - The Islamic courts in Somalia may have taken control of the capital, Mogadishu, but they face immediate challenges of whether to set up an administration in the city or hold talks with the Baidoa-based transitional government, analysts said.

 

"They are not immune from Somali politics," said Suliman Baldo, Africa programme director for the International Crisis Group (ICG). "In the past, they have been hardline. It is doubtful that they have become more moderate. For them, the hard part is just beginning."

 

With most of Mogadishu under the control of the courts, the city's residents were cautiously optimistic on Tuesday that the days when "warlords" held sway over the strife-torn Horn of Africa country were, at last, coming to an end. One such warlord, Mohammed Qanyare Afrah - a key member of the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism, which was ousted from Mogadishu on Sunday - declined to discuss the alliance's loss of the Somali capital when reached by IRIN via telephone.

 

Qanyare said he was in the town of Jowhar, 90km north of Mogadishu. He was one of four powerful Mogadishu-based faction leaders serving as ministers in Somalia's transitional government who was sacked on Sunday by Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Gedi. The sackings came as alliance forces were being beaten back from Mogadishu.

 

Militias loyal to the Islamic courts have been fighting against the secular faction leaders since February. More than 300 people are believed to have died in the violence, some 1,500 others have been wounded and many thousands displaced.

 

The end of the fighting has brought respite to Mogadishu residents. "Everybody is happy. If the business community, the Islamic courts and the civil society come to a consensus on how to restore and maintain law and order, then there will be no return to warlordism," said Abdulahi Shirwa, the head the Somali Peace Line, a local advocacy group. Shirwa cautioned, however, that "security in Mogadishu is still fragile. If the the Islamic leaders go around claiming that they are the victorious group, then we could see the return of the warlords."

 

Baldo, however, said the development did not necessarily mark the end of warlordism, partly because some of the Islamic court leaders have their own agendas. "Even the [faction leaders] who have been defeated still have forces and command clan loyalty," he said. "Therefore, it is not excluded that they may try to organise a comeback. Only when we have a broad-based effective government throughout Somalia [the end of warlordism] can happen."

 

The power of the Islamic Courts is not absolute in Mogadishu, however, with members of the Abgal sub-clan of the larger ****** group holding a rally in north Mogadishu on Tuesday, during which they declared that their community would not accept the authority of the courts. The protestors, numbering several hundred, chanted, "We will defend northern Mogadishu from any attack," and "We want our own Islamic courts," sources said. Defeated faction leaders Musa Sudi Yalahow and Bashir Raghe Shirar also insisted the anti-terrorism alliance was still strong.

 

The sources said hundreds of heavily militiamen allied to the Islamic courts had taken up defensive positions in the event that gunmen loyal to the faction leader who controls Jowhar, Mohamad Dheere, decided to launch a counter-attack on the capital. "Things appear to be taking a clannish dimension again," commented a member of a civil society organisation, who requested anonymity for security reasons. "The Abgal are complaining that they have lost land [to the Islamic court supporters of the Habr Gedir clan]," he told IRIN by telephone from Mogadishu. "They want to establish their own Islamic court independent of the other courts," he added, warning that the court leaders could fail if they chose to resolve this through force.

 

Baldo, however, said this was unlikely. "Much will depend on how they will go about this, if they try. But they are a very heterogenous group and have so far said this is not what they want to do."

 

Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has called for talks with the Islamic court leaders to chart a way forward, but observers say this could prove difficult because President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed is perceived as having an anti-Islamist agenda. "The TFG had very little to say during the fighting," Baldo said. "It played safe and only congratulated the winner. By calling for talks, they have taken a wise decision, but it may be difficult to actually hold talks until both sides overcome mutual suspicion."

 

In the United States, a State Department spokesman told reporters, "We do not want to see Somalia turn into a safe haven for foreign terrorists." African Union chairman, Denis Sassou Nguesso of Congo, discussed the situation on Monday with President George W Bush. United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged those concerned to resolve their differences through talks in accordance with the country's Transitional Federal Charter.

 

The Islamic courts are trying to promote Islamic law rather than clan allegiance, which has divided Somalis since the fall of the government of Siyad Barre 15 years ago, observers say.

 

"The courts moved quickly because they wanted to assert control before the alliance could consolidate itself," Baldo said. "They will probably want to consolidate authority outside Mogadishu, unless they talk with the TFG."

[RedSea]

Hello,

I say,

finish them all off and show no mercy to them as they showed no mercy to anyone including women and children for the last 15 years or so. May be give the teenagers who have been abducted to fight for the warlords a chance at life by letting them surrender. I have heard there are scores who have already surrendered and now in Islamic schools learning the Quran and basic human needs that has been missing from their lives for over a decade.

 

Thanks wiilo for the article.

[General Duke]

Cirfo, Inda Cade, Dhuxulow, Seerar, Goobaale, just to name a few are left. Will they be dealt with? Will the occupation from Afgoye to Kismayu end????? Those are the questions of the age..

[rudy-Diiriye]

I see another Iraq killings happening soon in somali! where u will see daily killings of innocent ppl..! i always believed the best way to unite somalis was thru religion... however, the courts have displayed lack of cultural insensitivity with their arrogant behaviors so far!! they marching to a deadly drum beat.

 

horta anything is better than the stinking worlords. these ppl were basically good for nothing!

 

A new chapter of horror will begin after the upcoming meeting in Sudan...! lets hope for the best inshallah...! amiin.

[Wiilo]

ur welcome Red sea

[Allamagan]

Sxb Rudy, why not wait and see? what are all these pessimism for? give them chance. Now they are trying hard to get rid with the last remnants of the thugs and to cleanse their x**r from xamar, so we cant judge them now so lets give them chance.

[Wiilo]

Hubkii Bashir Raage iyo C/qaadir Beebe oo caawa si rasmi ah loogu wareejiyay Maxaakiimta:

 

Xalay Fiidnimadii ayaa iska hor imaad waxa uu ka dhacay Deegaanka Shibis, kaasoo u dhexeeyay Midowga Maxaakiimta Islaamiga ah iyo Maleeshiyooyin taageersan Bashiir Raage iyo C/qaadir Beebe.

 

Iska hor-imaadkaas oo dhowr daqiiqo socday ayaa markii dambe warar kala duwan ka soo baxayaan sababihii uu ku bilowday, warar ayaa waxay sheegayaan in Midowga Maxaakiimta lagu wargeliyay in lagu wareejinayo hubkii Bashiir Raage iyo C/qaadir Beebe, hase yeeshee kooxo diidan ayaa Maxkamadihii halkaasi tagay is rasaaseyn dhex martay.

 

Warar kale ayaa waxay sheegayaan in Midowga Maxaakiimta Islaamiga ah ay ku wargeliyeen Maleeshiyada Bashiir Raage, Muuse Suudi iyo C/qaadir Beebe in ay si dhaqsi leh ku soo wareejiyaan hubka, balse arrintaasi way ku madax adeegeen, waxaana dhacday is rasaaseyn, iyadoo la sheegay in ay soo dhex galeen Odoyaal iyo Waxgarad ka tirsan Beesha Mudullood.

 

Warar hada na soo gaaray waxay sheegayaan in hubkii bashiir raage iyo c/qadir beebe caawa si rasmi ah loogu wareejiyay golaha maxaakiimta islaamiga, waxaana goob joog ka ahaa mas’uuliyeen ka tirsan golaha maxaakiimta oo u mahad celiyay intii ka soo shaqeysay in si nabad galyo ah hubkaas loogu soo wareejiyo maxkaamiimta.

 

Sheekh Shariif oo digniin u jeediyay kooxihii ka haray isbahaysiga:

 

Maalintii shalay ahay ayaa hubkii Cabdi Qaybdiid oo gaaraya 43 Tikiniko ah waxaa lagu wareejiyay Golaha Maxaakiimta Islaamiga ah kadib markii looga awood roonaaday dagaalkii ka dhacay Deegaanka Ex. Control ilaa iyo Saybiyaano. Hubkaan oo lagu soo bandhigay Ex. Filo Baydhabo ayaa waxaa ka qaybgalay madaxdii Golaha Maxaakiimta Islaamiga ah oo uu ugu horeeyo Sheekh Shariif Sheekh Axmed, waxa uuna isagoo ka hadlaya arrintaasi yiri “Waa Ilaah mahaddii maanta waxaa noo sugnaaday mid ka mid ah rabitaankii Shacabka Soomaaliyeedcâ€, waxa uuna intaasi raaciyay “Cabdi Qaybdiid mudo fog ayaan ka codsaneynay in uu dagaal baajiyo, basle Cabdi waa uu ka madax adeegayâ€, waxa uuna sheegay Sheekh Shariif in xitaa ay u direen Odoyaal iyo Waxgarad hase yeeshee uu ku gacansayray. Sheekh Shariif waxa uu sheegay in Golaha Maxaakiimtu ay aad uga xumaadeen dhibkii uu keenay dagaalkaasi, isagoo uga tacsiyeeyay Bulshada Soomaaliyeed dhibaatadaasi. Sheekh Shariif waxa uu u soo jeediyay Kooxaha weli ku sugan Muqdisho kana haray Isbahaysigii Shaydaanka in ay hubkooda soo wareejiyaan, waxaana Magaalada Muqdisho weli hubkoodii aan wareejin Bashiir Raage, Muuse Suudi iyo C/qaadir Beebe (Waa ka hor intii aanu soo bixin warkii caawa ee ahaa in ay hubkii wareejiyeen).

 

Sheekh Shariif waxa uu sheegay in ciidamo ka tirsan Itoobiya ay soo galeen gudaha wadanka Soomaaliya, isla markaana ay dhibaato ku hayaan bulshada Soomaaliyeed, waxa uuna Beesha caalamka ka codsaday in ay il gaar ah ku hayaan dhaqdhaqaaqa ciidamada Itoobiya ka wadaan gudaha wadanka Soomaaliya. Ugu dambeyniita waxa uu Sheekh shariif sheegay in ay diyaar u yihiin in ay ka qaybgalaan shirka todobaadka soo socda ka furmi doona Magaalada Khartuum ayna isugu imaan doonaan Golaha Maxaakiimta iyo Dowladda Federaalka.

 

Culuma’u-diinka Baydhabo oo u hanjabay Max’ed Dheere:

 

Wararka naga soo gaaraya Magaalada Baydhabo waxay sheegayaan in markii uu Magaalada Baydhabo soo galay Max’ed Dheere ay isla markiiba qoraal soo saareen Culuma’u-diinka ku nool Magaalada Baydhabo, waxayna qoraalkooda ku sheegeen in aysan marnaba ogolaan doonin in deegaankooda lagu martigeliyo xubno ka tirsan Isbahaysiga la dagaalanka Argagixisada, waxayna sheegeen in ay dagaal la gali doonaan cid kasta oo martigelisa raggaasi, waxayna ku tilmaameen xubnihii Isbahaysiga ee laga adkaaday kuwo dalkooda iyo Diintooda dambi weyn ka galay.

 

Xildhibaanada Baarla-maanka ayaa dowladda horey ugu eedeeyay in ay ka gaabisay in ay wax ka qaban weyday Wasiiradii hubeysnaa ee gumaadka ka waday Magaalada Muqdisho, aaqiritaankii waxay keentay in markii uu batay cadaadiskii Baarlamaanka uu Ra’isul Wasaare Cali Max’ed Geeddi uu xilkii ka qaaday Wasiiradii Hubeysnaa ee Muqdisho.

 

43-Gaari oo Tikniko ah oo Golaha Maxaakiimtu kala wareegeen Cabdi Qaybdiid:

 

 

Hubkii lagala wareegey C/Qaybdiid | Sawirka: Jiisow (Sawiro badan hoos ka eeg)

 

Shalay subaxnimadii ayaa Golaha Maxaakiimtu waxa ay kala wareegeen 43 Gaari oo Tikniko ah oo uu lahaa Cabdi Xasan Cawaale (Qaybdiid) kadib markii si weyn loogu jabiyay dagaalkii ka dhacay deegaanka Cakaaro.

 

Gaaridaan Tiknikada ah oo isugu jira kuwo waa weyn iyo kuwo yar yar ayaa waxaa ka qaybgalay wareejintooda Mas’uuliyiin ka tirsan Golaha Maxaakiimta iyo Dadweyne aad u fara badan oo daawanayay markii la wareejinayay hubkaasi.

 

Cabdi Qaybdiid waa hogaamiye kooxeedkii ugu dambeeyay ee ka tirsanaa Isbahaysiga la dagaalanka Argagixisada, waxayna Wargeysyada ka soo baxa shalay dhamaantood hal ku dhigyo uga dhigeen ("Qabqable Calmaani ah oo Maxaakiimta isugu dhiibayâ€).

 

Hub ay Dowladdu u soo waday Cabdi Qaydiid oo gacanta lagu dhigay.

 

Intii uu socday dagaalkii u dhexeeyay Midowga Maxaakiimta Isalaamiga ah iyo Maleeshiyadii Cabdi Qaybdiid ayaa waxaa la sheegay in Gaari Xamuul ah oo siday rasaas iyo hub kale lagu qabtay meel ku dhow Deegaanka Leego.

 

Gaarigaasi oo si xamuul ah loo soo raray ayaa waxa uu doonayay in uu soo maro deegaanka Dayniile, kadibna jid u dhexeeyay Jaamacadda iyo Dayniile in uu ka soo galo, hase yeeshee taasi ma dhicin.

 

Dowladda Federaalka waxay si weyn u cambaareysay dagaalkii dhawaan ka dhacay Magaalada Muqdisho, waxayna ku tilmaantay in Golaha Maxaakiimta Islaamiga ah ay ku xadgudbeen heshiiskii Khartuum, isla markaana aysan wax wada hadal ah la gali doonin.

 

W/D Amiin Yuusuf Khasaaro

Somalitalk.com