A holy war in the Horn? --the Economist

[NASSIR]

A holy war in the Horn?

Oct 10th 2006 | NAIROBI

From Economist.com

 

Islamist rulers in Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, have declared a holy war against Ethiopia, after hundreds of Ethiopian soldiers reportedly invaded Somalia. The risk of a regional conflict is growing

 

 

 

IS A regional war about to erupt in Somalia? Eyewitness reports on Monday October 9th suggested that “several hundred†Ethiopian soldiers, perhaps three battalions, had entered the small town of Burhakaba, well inside Somali territory. There have long been reports of Ethiopian troops at the town of Baidoa, 65km to the north, where a UN-recognised (but not widely Somali-recognised) transitional government sits. And there have been regular and credible reports of Ethiopian military planes landing on dirt strips up and down the country.

 

Ethiopia has claimed, not very convincingly, that it has no soldiers inside Somalia. In fact it seems that the soldiers were sent in as a response to an approach by Islamist forces, soldiers under the control of a de facto government in Mogadishu, known as the Islamic courts, to within 20km of Baidoa late last week. There has been no fighting, yet. The Islamists were undermanned in the town and retreated without a shot being fired. But such calm is unlikely to last. Burhakaba is a strategically useful forward base for any attack on Mogadishu. Islamist leaders have vowed to take back the town; some unconfirmed accounts say they already have.

 

In any event, the Ethiopian involvement may have already triggered a conflict. The Islamists have consolidated their remarkable hold over central and south Somalia by appealing to nationalist as well as religious sentiment. By denouncing Ethiopia at every turn, the Islamists are reaching beyond the country's divisive clan politics. In response to the Ethiopian incursion, the Islamists in Mogadishu have declared a jihad, or holy war, against Ethiopia.

 

Particularly worrying, that declaration came from a leading moderate in the Mogadishu camp, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed. Mr Ahmed had been involved in negotiations for a power-sharing deal with the transitional government in Baidoa. That now looks very much in doubt. A usually peaceful character, Mr Ahmed was seen dressed in combat fatigues and brandishing an AK-47 as he declared war. He told Somalis to “await orders†and announced the raising of a force to drive Ethiopians and foreign peacekeepers, including a few Ugandans, out of Somalia. He denounced some members of the transitional government as traitors.

 

Some of this is undoubtedly bluster, designed to keep a fractious coalition happy. Although they confiscated weaponry and armoured jeeps from the Mogadishu warlords routed earlier this year, the Islamists have no conventional army to speak of. Intelligence reports suggest that Eritrea and shady Arab sponsors may have passed the Islamists heavy anti-aircraft guns and bits of other air defence systems made in Russia and Ukraine. Should the fighting escalate, these may deter Ethiopian planes from striking at targets in Mogadishu. In other respects the Islamists are ill-equipped to take on the larger Ethiopian force in conventional warfare. Instead, radicals among the Islamists may respond to the Ethiopian incursions with terrorist strikes.

 

A bombing campaign inside Ethiopia, where a large Muslim population exists, or even attacks in Kenya, could prove devastating for the region. It could also give weight to Osama bin Laden's call for the Horn of Africa to become the world’s third jihadist front, after Iraq and Afghanistan. Of particular interest to the jihadists is luring Ethiopia, an ancient Christian civilisation, into a war against Muslims.

 

Ethiopia’s motivation is mixed. It worries that Eritrea, an old foe, is supporting the Islamists in Somalia. It blames Somali Islamists for a number of bomb attacks in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, and elsewhere in central Ethiopia. Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, a former rebel leader himself, has promised a hard response to further bombings in an effort to put off any potential new rebel groups inside Ethiopia. That is risky, but his government is worried by the threat from Mogadishu. Mr Zenawi should know about that: he once sheltered in Mogadishu as a rebel fighter seeking to bring down the regime in Addis Ababa.

[me]

hahahaha, the economist for one of the best informed news organizations in the world they write allot of rubbish. I expcted this kind of crap from METRO or London Lite.

[NASSIR]

It is a very conservative News Magazine, so you should expect that. But I like this quote,

 

"Intelligence reports suggest that Eritrea and shady Arab sponsors may have passed the Islamists heavy anti-aircraft guns and bits of other air defence systems made in Russia and Ukraine. Should the fighting escalate, these may deter Ethiopian planes from striking at targets in Mogadishu. "

[General Duke]

^^^I agree with ME. this is rubish..Metro , so ME you are a Londoner?

[NASSIR]

What is so rubbish about this more than those you post from AllPuntland.com

[General Duke]

^^^Saxib, Allpuntland has more info than this. Even the tabload Idamaale is more informative. The trouble with the oustide media is they do not understand the internal situation. Thus yesterday they used to call the warlords of Mogadishu powerful and today they use the same term for the clan courts.

 

The fact that they make out that Ethiopia is fighting Somalia, while it is a struggle between two major clans one allied to Ethiopia and the other to Eritria. The idea that bombers would be required to take out Mogadishu is another fallacy.

 

Caamir, dont take it prsonally since you do not work for the Economist and I dont work for Allpuntland.

[me]

Originally posted by General Duke:

^^^I agree with ME. this is rubish..Metro , so ME you are a Londoner?

No I am a traveler, nomad etc etc.

 

Aarhus

Alicante

Amsterdam

Athens

Barcelona

Bologna

Bordeaux

Budapest

Castilla-La Mancha

Copenhagen

Dublin

Elche

Florence

Galicia

Genoa

Gothenburg

Helsinki

Lille

Lisbon

Lyon

Madrid

Málaga

Malmö

Marseille

Milan

Nantes

Paris

Porto

Prague

Rennes

Rome

Rotterdam

Seville

St.Petersburg

Stockholm

Strasbourg

Toulouse

Turin

Valencia

Veneto

Verona

Warsaw

Zagreb

Zaragosa

 

got METRO too and London Lite was recently launched with allot of hooohaaaaaaaaaa!

[Allamagan]

^^^ for sure, ME apart from he is from Hargeisa, Somalia he is a londoner too and from south London, I guess!

[me]

meesha waa ka aamusayaa, C.I.A iyo ex-wifeku inay i helaan baan diidayaa. Labaduba lacag bey igu leeyhiin.

[Allamagan]

^^^ loooooooool @ lacagta. they contracted you too adaba is qarxiyey dee

[me]

I am not for sale man. Genuine Somali nooh, Wiil Waal, Axmed Guray, Sayid Maxamed, General Daud, ME .

 

Its evolution man and I and the likes of me are the new breed that will turn the world upside down.

[Allamagan]

^^^^ Duqa, you forgot macalinka nooh! and re. the new evolution, duqa let me know when you are about to start to turn this world upside down, I will be the 1st to join in ur crew!

[me]

Macalinka politically sensitive waaye nooh. Laakiin maalintiisa way iman doontaa.

[Allamagan]

^^^^ looooooool yeah and all hell breaks loose then, waan ku fahmay!

[me]

It’s all about how the legend goes, Axmed Guray was accepted by the whole Somali nation for his heroism and no one knows about any of his mistakes. Sayid Maxamed was forgiven for his mistakes because he was consistent and he was fighting for what was just. General Daud the dude must have been a saint, it seems like he hasn't put a foot wrong. For Siyaad Bare, well if the Somali Galbeed war was a success no one would say anything about him and he would have been the greatest Somali hero ever. His legacy is now being over shadowed by the consequences of his rule. Maybe in the future his name could be cleared from many crimes and he can be rehabilitated in Somali history.

 

The man or woman that gets back Somali Galbeed and NFD for Somalia will be the biggest hero in Somali history and as long as that prize is for the taking I have something to live for.