SOO MAAL Posted February 17, 2005 Somalia Somalia, on the Horn of Africa, has been beset by civil war for over a decade and has no real government. The outside world has largely avoided involvement after the failure of United Nations missions in the early 1990s. The persistence of polio is one legacy of the conflict. Since then, Somalia has recovered somewhat: the power of rival warlords has slightly diminished and many Somalis are doing quite well, thanks in part to enterprising businessmen. Two northern regions, Somaliland and Puntland, have declared independence (they remain internationally unrecognised) in the hope of establishing effective governance away from the chaotic south. A government of sorts was established in 2000 but collapsed in October 2001. After the attacks on America in September 2001, suspicions that Somalia is a terrorist haven have grown (the influence of Islam has certainly increased). American-led restrictions on financial networks that are thought to support terrorism have harmed businesses and ordinary people, by cutting off their access to funding (largely from expatriate Somalis). This will probably strengthen the warlords and destabilise the region further. Yusuf the uniter? Feb 17th 2005 | MOGADISHU AND NAIROBI From The Economist print edition NEXT week, Somalia's exiled government is due to return home. At least, that was the optimistic timetable its new president, Abdullah Yusuf, drew up earlier this month. The trouble is, Mr Yusuf has no army, no budget and no guarantee that he won't be shot as soon as he sets foot in the capital, Mogadishu. Even one of his ministers is calling for war. Somalia is not an easy place to govern. It fell apart in 1991, when several tribal militias clubbed together to remove a dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre, and then turned on each other. Since then, the country has been ruled by warlords, whose sparring has cost perhaps half a million lives and driven over 750,000 people from their homes. Thirteen attempts to restore order, mostly backed by rich-country donors, have failed. The fourteenth is now reaching a crunch point. Mr Yusuf heads a transitional Somali government, created with EU cash in neighbouring Kenya last year. Unlike some previous attempts at nation-building, this one includes most of the people who matter in Somalia—ie, the warlords—as well as elders, local politicians and people who work for non-governmental organisations. When and if the transitional government tries to go home, Mr Yusuf thinks, it will need foreign protection. He has asked the African Union to send 15,000 peacekeepers to help him. He will be lucky to get half that. Mr Yusuf says he “cannot function†without foreign military back-up, which is probably true, but the peacekeepers could themselves create problems. One of the five African nations offering to send troops is Ethiopia, a neighbour with a long history of fomenting discord in Somalia. The International Crisis Group, a think-tank, warned that the arrival of foreign troops, especially Ethiopians, might rekindle Somalia's civil war. On February 14th, thousands of people gathered in Mogadishu to protest against what many saw as a looming foreign invasion. Even Mr Yusuf's government is divided over whether Somalia needs peacekeepers. His housing minister has urged Somalis to take up arms against them. The atmosphere in Mogadishu is agitated and xenophobic. A Muslim cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa against foreigners, and there are rumours of a $5,000 reward for anyone who kills one. Last week, a BBC producer was assassinated outside her hotel in Mogadishu, and a government delegation was shot at. This week, a bomb apparently aimed at visiting African Union envoys killed a bystander. The precedent for peacekeeping in Somalia is grim. In 1992, America dispatched troops to protect famine-relief workers, and ended up embroiled in local factional warfare. After a bitter night of fighting in 1993, in which 18 American soldiers and around 1,000 Somalis were killed, American troops pulled out. The new Somali government faces an extraordinary challenge, to secure a lawless country with minimal foreign military or financial assistance. In timing its return to Mogadishu, Mr Yusuf is caught between the inflexible timetables that foreign donors often demand and the depressingly flexible record of African armies for delivering what they have promised. On top of this, he must placate those warlords who remain outside his government, and the government of Kenya, which has grown fed up with hosting so many Somali politicians. Mr Yusuf's recent performance has not been encouraging. He does not seem to have thought hard enough about how he can coax his countrymen to disarm, reconcile and recognise some form of authority besides the gun. A soft-spoken former militia boss, he speaks of returning to Mogadishu as if a soldier on the warpath. And yet, for all Mr Yusuf's failings, his government is exciting some hope of success. Earlier this month, a delegation of its members persuaded militiamen to vacate Mogadishu's port, presidential palace and other government buildings. Mr Yusuf credits these triumphs to the government's policy of including the brigands. “We have militia and faction leaders participating in the new government,†he told The Economist. “Since they are now part and parcel of the government they will disarm voluntarily as soon as we relocate the government.†This seems over-optimistic. Even if Mr Yusuf succeeds in taking control of Mogadishu, he must then disarm some 50,000 militiamen, stop the influx of weapons, set up some kind of justice system and try to resurrect a stricken economy. Those who see their power threatened will probably try to stop him. Somalia is home not only for a confusion of warlords, but also for smugglers and probably terrorists, too: America is actively searching for al-Qaeda operatives in the north. But despite all this, the exiled president remains sunny. His return to Mogadishu, he says, could hardly make the place more unstable than it already is. economist Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
