Jendayi Frazer Arrives Somaliland

[Suldaanka]

Markaa, waxaan uga jeedaa, nimankan, markey toodii, keeni kari waayeen, oo ay noqdeen, mid xabashida u muusanaaba, sidii ay wax uga dhigi lahaayeen, oo ah, Ina Yey iyo Tolkiisii, kabo-qaadka Amxaarada gudoon guud, oo wadareed, oo tolku u dhanyahay, isku raacey.

LOOOL

 

Aleyle waan xasuusta alalagtii iyo ciyaartii ka dhacday Ina Yey's home turf when the tanks rolled in Mogadishu's Int'l Airport.

[Baashi]

Uncle Sam's bottom line has not been changed. US vote for UN security council declaration about Somalia is loud and clear. Can't get more crystal than that.

 

Frazer's visit to secessionists stronghold has been billed as part of shoring up effort to settle the conflict in a piece-meal fashion.

 

Support the recovery zones, choose regional bulldog over the other anarchic territories, maintain military presence in the area -- all are in line with the Neocon's strategy.

 

Same old tune buddies.

 

To my man Oodweyne I remind him Mel Brook's memorable line and I'm paraphrasing here -- Tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is when you fall into an open sewer and die. I guess as an old soul fully conversant with nomadic lingo he will get the gist of the phrase in the context of the stuff we're talking about here.

 

All in all the deck is unshuffled, the ace is missing, and the table is not even set.

[Juje]

Originally posted by Oodweyne:

But, I fear, notwithstanding, the assertion of

Mr. Juje

and

Mr. Xiinfaniin

, which is so far is so

bogus

, that they, themselves find it difficult to substantiated, that, if anything, the visit of the lady in question to Somaliland could be the beginning of the end for that rickety sham of a government call the

TFG

.

Considering the time that has elapsed since the Lady's visit in which no inroads to recognition has been made - then obviously anything else other than my assertion is bogus.

And yes I agree with you -it is the beginning of the end of the sham TFG government - and thus the lady's visit could be qualified to be a well spirited mission in which the columns to hold a strong and representative government is being structured for the state.

Dont worry Ood as time goes by more hints will be dropped for you to digest and comprehend the big picture.

[Fabregas]

Originally posted by Juje:

quote:Originally posted by GJ_Goate:

What is out of the picture is the Americans somehow telling Somaliland to create a unity government with the T.F.G or any other Somali entity!

On the contrary that is the 'in' question. Jendayi is trying her best to harness weight and credibility for the TFG in which her government has backed it with full support. Geedi has been shown the door and his replacement is making all the right moves. Head of the TFG and notably the obstacle to any development in the recreation of Somali State is hospitalized and incapacitated in London. Plans are been devised to minimize if not eradicate the presence of Ethiopian troops in the country. In all aspects a whole new approach is been pursued in the region regarding Somalia, and the thought to dismember them is not on the agenda. But consider this for one moment 'Riayaale to replace Yeey'. It might sound absurd, so does the word 'if'.

Recognizing S/land as an independent state will not in anyway help the war against terror but vice versa. And the newly found JB's girlfriend is aware of that but her hubby aint.

Juje Bro, do you know something we don't know? All the open evidence points to a continuation of the current approach, ie a prolongement of Ethiopian involvement and interference in Somalia. Americans look like they are encouraging Ethiopians to stay for a little longer. This will probably be all the way up until there are so called elections(2009) in Somalia and maybe even beyond. With all respect to Mr Nur, his going forth between the opposition and T.F.G are not particularly important. That is to say He doesn't have the knowhow, political experience or outright power to ask for a reduction of troops or perhaps a withdrawl to Adiss Ababa. The parliament speaker said that Ethiopians will stay so long as there are armed groups in Somalia. More importantly for us:

 

quote:Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence, also told U.S. lawmakers that Somalia's transitional government would likely collapse if Ethiopian troops pulled out of the country.

 

The above probably sums what Jenday Frazer is adovocating for: a continuation of Ethiopian occupation as they believe the T.F.G is not fit to run things. Secondly, this more or less what the Ethiopians are saying( there are islamists we will stay and T.F.G is divided). So who exactly is making this plan you speak of?

 

 

Obviously the U.S.A isn't going to officially recognise Somaliland and appear as if they are supporting the partition of Somalia. But they will most likely pour funds, aid and military training to make Somaliland more powerful. Somaliland would also have to give something in return. I haven't worked this one out yet, but I find if far fetched to believe it is for Somaliland to sit with gang in Badioa and make a unity government with them!

[NASSIR]

^ Your marginal estimation is way out of the tangent line. The U.S. administration would have supported the African Union or at least redirected sufficient resources to the TFG's stated goals in building up its institutions. Ever since the intervention in favor of the TFG, the United States and EU placed national reconciliation and co-opting the moderate elements of the ICU as the overriding condition for receiving a direct aid. Even Zenawi complains of such political stand.

 

It is what I stated in my first post that captures Frazier's visit to Hargeisa, Somalia, and I am sure in the upcoming weeks or months, I presume the contradictory speculation exchanged here on the direction of U.S. foreign policy towards Somalia will be proved wrong .

[Juje]

Originally posted by Oodweyne:

it's best that I should stop in here with you.

I think that will be a good idea. Obviously it is apparent even with your extensive writing you are not open to any other thoughts. Hence it is better you stay in your cocoon while I entertain other concepts that sound absurd and radical to you - but are on the other hand in retrospect more coherent than your adapted one.

Salaam sxb.

 

GJ sxb I know nothing more than the ordinarry nomad - am simply stating the obvious. Right indeed TFG will crumble without the Ethiopian presence and Jendayi & Co. are aware of this - but they also know that they erred in their outright support for the Ethiopian invassion and the weightless TFG. It might have helped and succeded in their initial war against terror but has failed to eradicate it, and on the contrary as a result the animosity and the grounds whereby the creation of more terrorist elements was persistantly on the rise. In other words the Americans were loosing the battle for the hearts and minds in the region - and this was due to the factors they used to wage their war for them. Namely the Ethiopians and the TFG, cause both these two entities had own agenda which was contrast to that of their sponsors. Steps have been taken since end of last year to amend those mistakes - Nuur Cadde is one of them - and gradually the replacement of Ethiopian forces with other AU troops is another change in the horizon.

[Baashi]

Delusional Oodweyne keeps keeping on. We were unfortunate to see him make premature declaration that Somaliland has marked a date to announce, jointly with Senegal, its first touchdown. That was 2003. Never happened! He assured us that he had "the" inside scoop. He was pretty sure back then as he is today. We learned later that marqaan was the culprit that made him see stars. My man Oodweyne is known to have a missive of sort with unfounded jumbo mumbo excitement. Just same delusional man doing what he does the best post propaganda on forums.

 

Check! So far no official change as far as US policy toward horn is concerned. Uncle Sam deals Somalia as a failed state. US recognizes the recovery zones as part and parcel of that failed state. US have reaffirmed again and again (seventeen times) by official vote in UN Security Council -- mind you -- the territorial integrity, unity, and sovereignty of this failed state. Any dealing with your Bantustan should be seen through that prism.

 

Did I hear you say US has indicated that there is “no strategic objection” to Somalia’s dismemberment? Nonsense! Pure rubbish! Oh boy! You and I know what “referral” means -- in diplomatic lexicon. It is polite rejection. In plain language what that means is that US’s position toward Somalia is unchanged; there’s no plan to change it. Uncle Sam is not pushing for a change and he is not asking other countries to change their position either (no arm twisting).

 

In other words the pitiful Riyale is sent back to Addis for help. In short his case is not referred to AU. Nooo buddy. US are not asking AU to consider the matter. No buddy. He’s -- Riyale that is -- asked to take up the matter to whom the case may concern. Pretty straight forward stuff!

 

As to the lady’s visit awoowe you and I know that it has to do with deteriorating situation of the recovery zones. There is a conflict brewing there. Uncle Sam wants to urge the parties to resolve that conflict peacefully. UDUB gets a boost from securing a visit from the deputy -- a lady that regularly shuttles back and forth to Biadowa . In return she gets to tell them what Uncle Sam’s expectations are.

 

No worries pal. I understand you have an obligation to hold the line Understandable! Really, I mean it.

[Gediid]

No Baashi it has nuthing to do with that nor does it have anything to do with recognition as some would want us to believe and definately nuthin to do with pressuring Riyaale to participate in the "reconcialation efforts" as Juje/Xiin said.Oohinto orgiga mise ceesaanta ka weyn bey aheyd,like the saying goes Riyaales dash to DC and Fraziers reciprocal visit though only for a few hours to Hargeisa was for a purpose which the results we will only get to see in the coming months or so.As sad as it seems Somalis sometimes soap opera yar oo raaqiis ah ba lagu maaweliyaa and as Bush said "in Tennessee there is an old saying fool me once shame on you, fool me twice uhmmm uhmmm uhmm if you get fooled once you cant be fooled twice" but unfortunately Somalis maalin kasta someone is playing us like a fool....

[Baashi]

Gediid [edited], what transpired in the State Department conference room is public knowledge. You and I know that at the end of the day what counts is what comes out from this exaggerated jumbo mambo “exchanged trips”. Don’t you go away pal for the year will end before you know it and we’ll see how this sh*t goes down the drain. Keep posted.

 

Oodweyne,

 

Oh boy! Who effing cares about who did what. The point was you were up in arms jumping up and down like Elmo for what proved to be a hoax. You are doing the same thang now. You are known to do that sort of stuff anyway. That’s the crux of what I was alluding to.

 

Regional states prevented you to attain the golden cup huh! Is that what I’m hearing? Precisely! The same states are here and for my knowledge they haven’t changed their position. The drive is pretty tall order isn’t it?

 

Somalia is down. No question about it. There are swathes of calm and tranquility. True. Things are heating up down the South. You are right. But that’s not what we are talking about pal. At issue is whether the powers that be are prepared to balkanize this unstable region by forcibly lumping unwilling partners (tribes) into bandage-like provincial collection that drives its legitimacy from defunct colonial entity?

 

The short answer is no. We don’t know what’s in the offing. But if we are to go by what we know the unequivocal answer is simply there are no new change of direction as far as the case of Somalia is concerned.

 

I guess I heard “defeated lot” phrase thrown in the mix again. Noted. Just so you know it is the defeated lot that thwarted your plans and made it so difficult for you to make a rational case for the secession. It is more than a sticky thorn -- a sharp one -- on your side belly. Puntland and its mini one Maakhir are here to stay. They know the robes, are privy to the rituals, and know how to implant a story in the media.

 

What do you know buddy! Here in the land of honey and milk they have lined up the support of three senators and 13 congressional representatives. No way would you be able to overcome such an impressive political wall. It is time to cut your losses and save the green you are giving the lobbyists.

 

Take care fella.

[Gediid]

Baashi, Baashi you think you know what transpired but I seriously doubt if you have a iota of what took place.....I once knew of this guy who would hear something in the news and turn around and say I told you so sanaad ka hor,I dont why but you kinda remind me of him.You are indeed a true diplomat warka sanad kadib soo bixi doonaa ayaad sugeysaa before you spill the beans......

 

Intaas waa iga kaftan reer magal but here's the scope on what took place....Ever heard of the real estate term location,location,location well in this case the magic word was Chinese, Chinese Chinese.....

 

The chinese have recently shown interest in Somaliland and its strategic location on the horn plus its potential to have some oil.As you know the Chinese in this age are not interested in playing politics but are more interested in quenching their ever increasing thirst for oil and natural resources.They will go to the corners of this earth to find a new source they can stamp their name on and Somaliland is one such place.In addition to that Somaliland is ideally located on the Gulf of Aden with a natural port that requires minimal investment to turn into a huge naval port.Talk about killing 2 birds with one stone.A high but top secret Chinese delegation came to Hargeisa days before Riyaale was summoned to DC.The US decided to play tit for tat.They called him to DC and as they say the rest is history.

 

Having said that what we need to ask ourselves is has he benefitted from this and how much does he stand to gain from this sudden interest by the US and the Chinese?

 

In my humble opinion I think in the short run he has gained some what a few points within Somaliland and keeping in mind the elections due sometime in the summer his candidacy stands a much better chance of winning especially in light of the fact that he now has Las Anod under his control and Miss J Frazier playing house guest if only for a few hours.In the long run I doubt if there will be any gains for Somaliland since the US ultimate goal is to keep the Chinese out who might have helped in at least building a few stadiums and a couple of highways.Haddi aad si kale u aragtaan sheekadan bal soo dayaa.....

 

Peace

[Gediid]

OOdweyne

The least we can do for Baashi is give him enough bait,tap him on the back and wish him Happy Fishing so maaha....

[Gediid]

^^^^^^

 

Word has it he's still looking for his fishing underwear....You know how superstitious they are down there and I hear in Kismaayo those actually make a big difference....

[ElPunto]

^Much ado about very little.

[Baashi]

Gediid,

 

Awoowe you are right about one thing. China’s thirsty for oil is unquenchable. The giant has been making acquaintances in unlikely places -- Sudan is case in point. However your lil extrapolation from Beijing all the way to dusty Hargeisa is bit of a stretch. Reason being SL is and remains in the foreseeable future a provincial admin operating in a failed state.

 

It has no privileges to enter bilateral agreement beyond the delivery and distribution of humanitarian assistance. Ethiopia as we all know is an exception to the rule. Much to your dismay this old soul is pretty well informed about the goings of the sand dunes in that far away land I once called home.

 

I hear you sxb and ur lil kaftan is noted. But make no mistake dismembering Somalia is not your cup of tea. As I said buddy keep posted. In the words of Inna Abdille Hassan’s loyalist who uttered the famous phrase -- upon hearing the rumors of his master’s demise through the grape vine -- war jiraaba cakaaruu iman. let's leave it that way sxb.

 

Ah! my cyber pal Mr. Oodweyne.

 

I’m here awoowe. I just stepped out for a moment. I’m back on the saddle again though. You keep cracking me up friend. You are a helluva desperado. Not to mention your capacity to spin tidbits and make mountain out of an anthill. What a talkative nutcase you are. You remind me the saying Ileyn nimanyahow af laba daan leh baan hadalka deynayn or something along those lines.

 

What we got here. Let me see. On a second look I don’t see anything worth replying to. Well well defeated lot this and that bla bla nonsense! There is nothing to wrap my arms around. Bottom line remains the same. At its darkest hour Somalia -- the textbook failed state -- remains intact (in legalesse lingo).

 

You and your secessionist colleagues have failed time and again to make the case to Ethiopia -- of all places -- let alone sophisticated machinery that America is . Melez likes the way it is and he ain’t buying your crap. Keep preaching the gospel awoowe. Recognition is coming!!! Was it Jean Jacques Rousseau who asked the interesting question that goes like and I’m paraphrasing here again ‘what you make of a doctor who exhorts his sick patients to practice patience?

 

What do you make of axadka ceynkaas ah?

 

Later

[me]

Baashi: You and your secessionist colleagues have failed time and again to make the case to Ethiopia -- of all places -- let alone sophisticated machinery that America is . Melez likes the way it is and he ain’t buying your crap. Keep preaching the gospel awoowe. Recognition is coming!!! Was it Jean Jacques Rousseau who asked the interesting question that goes like and I’m paraphrasing here again ‘what you make of a doctor who exhorts his sick patients to practice patience?

Oodweyne and his colleagues can't even make their case here on SOL, let alone to the governments of the world. He would like us to take his clownesque writing and his theatrics on SOL for serious argument.