Fait accompli!

[xiinfaniin]

The emergence of Islamic Courts in Mogadishu has fundamentally altered Somalia’s political settings. By defeating well armed warlords who successfully prevented any government to form and maintained their grip on Mogadishu for the good part of last two decades, Islamic Courts achieved a quick (one might say accidental) victory. Soon they embarked on a security and political campaign to reverse what has been the norm in the south throughout the civil war era; chaos and anarchy. First time since the fall of Somali state, Mogadishu is run today by one political and security entity, its main commercial channels are safe and operational, and above all peace reigns supreme in Mogadishu’s infamous aisles of death. Despite attention-grapping news headlines resulting from a deliberate media framing to defame and vilify what these men have done, Mogadishu’s Islamic Courts has surprisingly commenced with a triumph note on its local achievements. Any casual observer who assesses them holistically could attest their successful pacification of Mogadishu, a city so complex that even great powers of our time failed to overcome its deadly intricacies. But what’s more astonishing than that is how rapidly this organization managed to get handle on its political track. They moved, simultaneously, on two front political arrangements, and with all indications, seem to have succeeded on both! On a one hand, Islamic Courts are engaged in a political process with their subjects in Mogadishu to find consensus on their policies and legitimize particular security operations. On the other hand, they are involved with a marked passion with the TFG, albeit through third party venue, to reach a negotiated settlement for Somalia’s long-drawn-out and costly civil war. On both fronts, they come across as a clever and reasonable bunch.

 

Their emergence also resurrected and, and in essence, emitted a new life into Mogadishu’s silent majority community. If we were accustomed to see scenes of armed nomads stripping buildings naked and gutting and trampling private and public premises, today with Islamic Courts we instead see and witness different dynamics of social renewal beginning to emerge. Learned scholars and educated expatriates are rushing back in, not with cash to buy more weapons, but with ideas and initiatives. Entire block of Somalis who didn’t have political voice before now feel that they can make a difference and their ideas worth something. Moreover, the sense of purpose and unity in Mogadishu is a clear contrast to the not-so-distant era that preceded it. When you look at these trends (chaos city pacified and people, both in side and out side, feeling that they can make difference on the ground) you clearly see that something fundamental has changed in southern politics. Something that’s irreversible, that is.

 

When the cries of war abate and clannish emotions subside, reasonable people would agree that the day when Mogadishu warlords were utterly defeated marked a political turning point in our contemporary Somali history. Needlessly to say those who still wear pre Islamic Courts lenses to view Somali politics will be greatly mistaken, and their effort to foolishly welcome defeated warlords and host them in their land , in essence to sow dragon's teeth, will be in sure vain.

 

Islamic Courts is fait accompli, i say!

[Xoogsade]

Xiinfaniin for president Puntlanders should nominate you and be done with men like Cadde Muse and A/Y. You are a man I can proudly call my president lol.

[Paragon]

^^^ I second that.

 

Xiinfiniin:

Islamic Courts is fait accompli, i say!

Fait accompli, indeed! Today's dynamics of Somali Politics sure reminds me of the ancient Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta and Thucydides' Melian Dialogue between the Athenians and the Melians...where the Athenians give a superb justification for wanting to occupy the Melos Islands. The Athenian Generals (Cleodes and Tisias) believed that neutrality in any war isn't to the advantage of their imperialist desires,thus, must bring Melos under the control. In their dialgue with the Melians, Thucydides narrates:

 

The Council of the Melians replied as follows

: We see that you have come prepared to judge the argument yourselves, and the likely end of it all will be either war, if we prove that we are in the right, and so refuse to surrender, or else slavery.

 

Atheneans

: If you are going to spend the time in enumerating your suspicions about the future, or if you have met here for any other reason except to lood the facts in the face and on the basis of these facts to consider how you can save your city from destruction, there is no point in our going on with this discussion. If however, you wil do as we suggest, then we will speak on.

 

Then we will on our side use no fine phrases saying, for example, that we have a right to our empire because we defeated the Persians, or that we have come against you now because of the injuries you have done us--a great mass of words that nobody would believe. And we ask you on your side not to imagine that you will influence us by saying that you, though a colony of Sparta, have not joined Sparta in the war, or that you have never done us any harm. Instead we recommend that you should try to get what is possible for you to get, taking into consideration what we both really do think;

since you know as well as we do that, when these matters are discussed by practical people, the standard of justice depends on the equality of power to compel and that in fact the strong do what thay have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.

For the Melian oligarchs, this signalled a fait accompli. Fight or don't fight, the basic undisputable fact meant that the march of war against them was irreversable.

 

Today, the Islamic Courts have set a president that is here to stay. Whether we like it or not, their success in Mogadishu is likely to be duplicated in other parts of Somalia. Whether local elders or authorities (or even overly dehumanized and clanist souls) object to the spread of the UIC or not, such resistance is futile . My advice to all other regions of Somalia is to prepare themselves for what is coming in the coming months. They would either accept the UIC as the single dominant power in the arena of Somali Politics or they would be made to accept it by other means. Time to build courts all over the country, and replace the TFG's so-called parliament to Baidoa's Islamic Court.

[Che -Guevara]

Fait accompli eh

 

Aren't we being little premature here. There are both external and internal forces that the courts have to deal. Give the courts few more months before we declare the kings of the new horn.

 

web page

[Paragon]

^^ You could speak of external or internal difficulties that may be facing the UIC, however, according to current power distribution, these difficulties would disappear into the thin air. Eight-thousand or even eighteen-thousand African troops is really nothing. There once was over twenty three thousand more sophisticated troops in Mogadishu-if external troops would make any change. Plus the AU hasn't got a dime to support this mission. As for the internal difficulties the UIC may faces, they aren't worth worrying about that much. Those opposing the UIC seem to have their own internal conflicts that would see to their self-destruction.

[Che -Guevara]

Saaxib Qabiil rules supreme at the end day. The internal issues would be difficult one for the courts atleast as it relates to Pland, Jubba/Gedo, and Somaliland. I don't see how the courts would extend their authority into these areas without confronting the current administrations or without resigning to the fact that they might have to share the stage with others. The externals do matter as well since Ethiopia and co mastered the art of exploiting Somalis along tribal lines.

[Paragon]

Originally posted by Che-Guevara:

Saaxib Qabiil rules supreme at the end day. The internal issues would be difficult one for the courts atleast as it relates to Pland, Jubba/Gedo, and Somaliland. I don't see how the courts would extend their authority into these areas without confronting the current administrations or without resigning to the fact that they might have to share the stage with others. The externals do matter as well since Ethiopia and co mastered the art of exploiting Somalis along tribal lines.

Che, Puntland as signs show has very serious internal conflicts coming to the surface. Cade is in LaasCaanood to solve an issue that has proved problematic-the issue here is the decleration of an Islamic Court in Laas-Caanood. His meetings with the Issimada and Cuqaasha reer-Laas-Caanood are to the effect. On another front, Cuqaasha reer Sanaag Barri have warned Cade Muse not to visit Badhan, owing to that fact that there are outstanding and unresolved issues concerning the failed Majiyahan project. As for Jubba, well today's news headlines contains the UIC's possible invassion of Kismaayo. That should've signaled something to you, if at least. As for reer-Gedo, the occupants of this region are known for their patriotic resistance to Ethiopian and since UIC is as fierce in their opposition to Ethiopia, I think there is a common denominator there. What this means is that except for Gedo, in other regions, there exist tensions that have the potential to result their fall.

 

Last but not least, as far as Somaliland is concerned, I think, when other regions are pacified, you may be in for a big surprise. Contrary to the image Somaliland state portrays, there are sleeper agents within its framework-the very sleeper agents who declared an Islamic court in Laas-Caanood. UIC is more likely to find supporters in Somaliland that it would in all other regions combined.

[General Duke]

How on earth do intelligent men get fooled so easily? Its an interesting question.

Over the last few months I have looked at the rise to power of the so called Islamic courts.

One conclusion that I have made is that these courts are based only on clan, if they are a union why then the need to create separate clan based courts?

 

Thus their actions are dictated by clan, for example those who have courts are determined to move into their local areas, as done by Ifka Xalin in Guriceel. Alfurqan attempts to move to south Mudug and so on. It seems they are only strengthening the hand of the clans in the courts. Who happen to be the same armed clans who had the warlords.

Thus while bringing order to the clan. Justice is still denied to the larger unarmed population of Mogadishu.

 

Even their die hard supporters have not been able to explain away the lower Shabbele occupation and the stamp of approval that Xasan Dahir has given to this horrid action by his clan. Many tend to avoid, Yusuf Inda Cade and some are even rehabilitating this fellow. Some here mention that Cade Muse of Puntland is corrupt. But is he even comparable to Inda Cade and Abukar Cadan who have become rich through pillaging?

Can one compare the Puntland model to what is taking place in Lower Shabbele and Banadir. No one elected these fellows. To sidestep, ignore and even deny these points only does a disservice to your intellects. Everything new is not better, the factions that replaced the Barre regime proved that.

 

These courts are weak in that they contain the same clan contradictions that undermined the USC faction.

[xiinfaniin]

Generale , comparing Puntland to the Islamic Courts is just missing the point adeer. They are based on two different modalities and brought by different political circumstances. The gist of my point is to conform to the actualities on the ground, and stop deluding ourselves in thinking opposing this movement is the way to go! No matter how loud you shout from the top of your lungs to highlight Islamic Court’s supposed clannish affiliation, and link them to atrocities and grievances that predates their emergence, Islamic Courts are here to stay! Significant portion of land, very important land that is, is under their direct rule, and equally important areas are within their sphere of influence. I can easily concede a point or two to your assertions of their incompetence to address the issues of Shabeelooyinka and Jubbooyinka (although you have been less forthcoming about your stance on the Kismayo rape) but what I can’t do is indict the whole movement and the positive changes they brought on a mere clannish charges. To steer this debate and center it on a questionable characters associated with the Islamic Courts is a dishonest of sort, intellectual dishonest to be sure! TFG is composed with worse men whose integrity is easily impeachable and whose background is dyed with spills of Somali blood. Yet you find no difficulties to support them when they right—and when they are not so right . You need to extend that same courtesy to this one adeer. And remember that one needs to go beyond personalities and dare address bigger points if one means to engage in a meaningful debate.

 

What have these men done differently (forget their clan for a minute) than the warlords they replaced? Do they have better ideas than the men who continue to dominate TFG? Do they deserve a chance to rule without conspiring to exact their demise, often with the help of foreign entities? If the TFG continue on the route they started to take which’s essentially undermining Islamic Courts changes and assuming adversarial role instead of capitalizing opportunities that were presented to them, what would you think the outcome would be? What are the priorities yaa Generale: addressing the issues of Shabeelooyinka and Jubbooyinka before securing national arrangement and platform for reconciliation, or working on achieving broader settlements to effect peace and security in the south?

 

^^These are but few questions that deserve, at least some reflection from you, and from me as well?

 

 

Paragon, I beg to differ from your take on this issue. The notion that what happened in Mogadishu needs be replicated in Puntland and Somaliland is equally missing the point. That, I hold, is neither necessary now nor feasible in the near future. Puntland is in a dire need for reform, to be sure, but the methods of bringing that reform should never be erecting makeshift courts within already functioning entity however corrupt saaxiib. That’s a recipe for conflict and instability. The ingredients that made Islamic Court’s success possible in Mogadishu are entirely missing or scarcely present in Puntland’s political settings. What I am arguing for is not to spark a courts movement in Puntland rather I am attempting (poorly I now realize) to highlight some delusions in some circles that assert these Courts are just clannishly motivated and will soon vanish as others before them. I am saying current trends lead to an entirely different conclusion: Kheyr aan la baddali karin baa Xamar ka dhacay .

 

Xoogsade, you and good Paragon need to do better than that adeer ! It’s not cheap to get to the top of Puntland’s political summit. I need a lot of money, and more of it indeed, to get there.

 

edit: Che, although I admire your caution you still seem to be wearing wrong lenses adeer.

[Gabbal]

Xiin-

 

Adeer ma wali baad u fadhisaa Kismaayo qaban waayee hala ii qabto?

[General Duke]

Xiin, with all due respect lets come back to the real world

the clan courts foundation and structure is quite is simple to fathom. Let me make it simple for you there are three main structures…

1.The clan of Inda Cade, with Seerar, Goobanle, and Abdiqasin playing a key role. The reason behind Xasan Dahir's takeover..This clan provided the Technicals..

2. The other clans of the confederacy notably Chircoole..This clan provided the foot soldiers.

3. The Banadir company..Reer Abukar Cumar Cadaan. This group brought in he finances... The rest are toast, the real power lies in these three groups, hence you have Xasan Dahir, Inda Cade as real players and Shiekh Sharif coming in due to his relationship by marriage to the latter two and his close clan kinship with the reer Cadan..

 

This combination of business and powerful sub-clans was too much for the frictitious warlords of Mogadishu, but in no way represents a clear paradigm shift in Somali politics.

 

There is no system outside these clans and their master’s interest. For example Inda Cade is security chief, his control over the lower Shabbele has the blessing of the courts.

Abkar Cadaan is in charge of the sea-port. Shiekh Sharif takes with him Abdiqasin. Goobanle, Seeraar are all members of the ICU.

 

So comparing Puntland with its Parliament, executive and power sharing mechanism to these clans is quite amusing. But I have noticed you do see these courts in your own way.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Who’s comparing what and with whom, saaxiib?

 

Reducing the whole Islamic Courts to a mafia-like group brought together by clannish and marital connections is beyond conspiracy---it’s like the typical Starbuck talk that I’ve accustomed hearing lately.

 

I believe there’s much more to Islamic Courts than that caricature you depicted. Drop this hostile posture of yours and be more objective. In politics or otherwise, no entity can function in a flawless manner. Critique if you wish but acknowledge the good that’s done!

[Che -Guevara]

Paragon...I don't know Somaliland, but the courts certainly can capitalize on the divisions, and the political incompatency of the Cadde regime. The question here is do Planders support change from outside, or would they institute their own changes. Mind you, the reason they are stuck with Cadde, and Yeey cuz Planders sincerely believed these military men will thwart any militristic campaigns emanating from the south. With their chioce in leadership, and that kind of mentality, I don't know how well would the masses in Pland recieve the courts.

One thing is clear the current leadership needs to go as it lacks the vision, and skills to lead anything.

 

Xiin.....I don't know what are you talking. But I see things just fine.

[Paragon]

^^^ Che check this out...

 

"Boosaaso, Hargeysa, Burco, Gaalkacyo iyo Baydhabo waxay dhex jiifaan webi soo socda" ayuu yiri Sh. Xasan Turki oo ula jeeday in Maxaakiimta ay tegayaan goobahaasi.-

Not my words, but the courts' words. So when I spoke as I did yesterday, I wasn't just talking for the sake of it. Something is coming...we just have to be patient.

 

[EDIT]About the AU's troops to Somalia, the estimated cost is $931m. How the AU gets that amount of money beats me. And if they get that amount, much awaits for these troops within Somalia.

[General Duke]

Reducing the whole Islamic Courts to a mafia-like group brought together by clannish and marital connections is beyond conspiracy---it’s like the typical Starbuck talk that I’ve accustomed hearing lately.

Well give us the real view point, you have not confirmed nor denied all the points I made. Again you sidestepped the issue.

The reply one gets is peppered with wonderful words placing us in an idealized utopian fantasy world parallel to the one we all inhabit .Apart from the name what are these courts? Who are the power brokers?

 

Xiin, Paragon, Castro and others this is for you…