Gul's presidential bid boosted

[Jabhad]

One of Turkey's main opposition parties, the MHP, has said it will not boycott next month's presidential election.

The move could clear the way for the Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul - a former Islamist - to become president.

 

Turkey's secular opposition and the military opposed his candidacy in May, provoking a crisis which led to early parliamentary polls.

 

Elections on 22 July were won by the ruling AKP, an Islamist-rooted party.

 

The MHP (Nationalist Action Party) could, just by turning out, give the ruling AKP (Justice and Development Party) the two-thirds quorum needed in parliament to elect the new country's president.

 

This quorum - 367 deputies out of 550 - eluded the AKP in May.

 

In the subsequent elections, the AKP was returned with a comfortable, albeit smaller majority, still shy of two thirds.

 

Controversial candidate

 

A candidate needs a two-thirds majority to be elected president in the first two rounds of voting and an absolute majority, 276, in the third round. The AKP has 340 deputies.

 

The MHP hopes, however, to be able to put pressure on the government to nominate a less controversial candidate than Mr Gul.

 

Turkish Parliament composition

 

AKP 340 seats

CHP 112 seats

MHP 71 seats

Independents 27 seats

Total 550 seats

 

The leader of the nationalists, Devlet Bahceli, has called on the ruling party to name a candidate who is not controversial. That would rule out Mr Gul.

 

The BBC's Istanbul correspondent, Sarah Rainsford says it is still far from clear that the AKP is ready to sacrifice Mr Gul after such a resounding victory at the polls.

 

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been talking about compromise and consensus - and in the end, the decision will be his, she says.

 

But on Wednesday, his right-hand man, Mr Gul, hinted he still wanted to run for president, saying he could not ignore the signals of support for him from the streets.

 

 

[Jabhad]

Kurds return to Turkey parliament

 

Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister

 

 

Erdogan called an election for July after he failed to win backing for his presidential candidate [AP]

 

 

A new Turkish parliament dominated by the Islamic-oriented ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) has been sworn in, with Kurdish representatives set to hold seats for the first time in 13 years.

 

Saturday's development prepares the way for a new government that was reminded in the opening speech to safeguard the nation's secular principles.

 

 

 

 

The AKP, to which Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, belongs, will have 341 of 550 seats in the legislature, while the Kurdish Democratic Society Party will hold 20.

 

The AKP is in firmly in control of a majority despite losing 10 seats from the outgoing parliament.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Kurdish party last had representation in parliament in 1994, when it was removed over alleged ties to groups fighting for a separate Kurdistan in southern Turkey.

 

At the start of Saturday's ceremony, Sukru Elekdag, the interim speaker of parliament who belongs to an opposition party, said Erdogan should act with common sense to prevent polarisation in politics.

 

"Pursuing a policy to protect secular and democratic values would help the country attain its goal of achieving the contemporary level of civilisation, he said.

 

Next government

 

Ahmet Necdet Sezer, the president, is expected to ask Erdogan on Monday to form the next government, the state-run Anatolia news agency said.

 

The election was due in September but was brough forward by Erdogan after he failed to win the necessary parliamentary quorum for his choice as president.

 

The closest opposition to the AKP in the new parliament comes from the Republican People's party, which will hold 99 seats.

 

 

Abdullah Gul appears set to remain as the ruling

party's choice of presidential candidate [AFP]

The Nationalist Action Party, a far-right group, will have 70 seats after a five-year absence, while the centre-left Democratic Left Party will hold 13 seats.

 

A Kurdish independent also adds to the seats held by Kurdish representatives, taking the total to 21.

 

The independent has said that he may support the larger Kurdish party.

 

For many Kurds, the Kurdish Democratic Society's return to parliament revives hopes for a fresh struggle for more rights.

 

But many Turks are afraid of a party suspected of being under the influence of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), which is deemed to be a terrorist organisation by the US and EU.

 

Presidency challenge

 

 

After the new parliament is sworn in, the process to elect a new president will begin.

 

In May, Erdogan failed to win parliamentary backing for his preferred candidate Abdullah Gul, Turkey's foreign minister.

 

Abdullah Gul failed to win backing from Turkey's main opposition in May [AFP] Opposition politicians rejected Gul over his alleged ties to political Islam, while many Turks feared that the government was trying to scrap Turkey's secular principles.

 

Widespread pro-secularist public street demonstrations came after Gul's nomination.

 

The main opposition party's boycott of the presidential vote meant that a quorum could not be reached - and prompted Erdogan to call a general election four months early.

 

Nazinine Moshiri, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Ankara, said the ruling party seems set to continue supporting its previous presidential candidate in a new parliamentary vote.

 

"It looks like the AKP still want to put Abdullah Gul forward but it seems that when the vote takes place next time, opposition parties will be there to vote," she said.

 

"The army generals say they will not be supporting Gul but there is not much they can do. In 2007, we are not expecting to see tanks rolling through the streets of Ankara."

 

Officers dismissed

 

Meanwhile, Turkey's armed forces announced on Saturday that 23 officers had been dismissed for "reactionary activities" or "acts prejudicial to the discipline and prestige of the armed forces".

 

The sackings were decided during the annual meeting of the Higher Military Council, which met for four days under the chairmanship of Erdogan.

 

The army, which considers itself guardian of the country's secular tradition, has sacked dozens of men suspected of harbouring Islamist views in recent years.

 

The armed forces threatened to intervene over Erdogan's attempt to get Gul into the presidential office earlier this year.

[Jabhad]

The AKP, to which Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, belongs, will have 341 of 550 seats in the legislature, while the Kurdish Democratic Society Party will hold 20.

 

The AKP is in firmly in control of a majority despite losing 10 seats from the outgoing parliament

Wow, thats pretty impressive show of strength by the AKP.

[Jabhad]

Turkey's Ruling Islamist Party: It's Not as Moderate as Advertised

August 02, 2007

 

Barry Rubin

In Istanbul, Turks of every political position told me the same story to explain their situation: To cook a live frog, you don't put it in a pot on a high flame. You put it in cool water and raise the temperature very slowly.

This is what they fear is happening following the victory of the Islamic-oriented Justice and Development (AK) party in the July 22 parliamentary election.

 

International media coverage repeats endlessly that the AK party is really moderate now. Despite Islamist roots, they say, it's now a centrist party concerned with Turkey becoming a member of the European Union member and having a prosperous economy.

 

Certainly, such is the image the party has projected over its five years in power, and there is some evidence to accept this conclusion. Half of Turkey's voters supported AK precisely because they became convinced that it had no Islamist intentions. The economy is doing well. Turkey might benefit from having a system more balanced regarding religion.

 

At the same time, though, there is also evidence to doubt that AK is going to be so benign. Even if the party is relatively moderate, it's nothing to rejoice about. No one knows what will happen, but to conclude that Turkey will prove the virtues of Islamists-gone-moderate is somewhere between premature and naïve.

 

Consider foreign policy. If the key issue in the Mideast is the spread of radical Islamism, does the AK government want to see this defeated in Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt or among the Palestinians? No.

 

Even if the AK government doesn't want to impose radical Islamism at home, it's certainly not the enemy of radical Islamism abroad. Once pro-Western, Turkey is now neutral, at best. The U.S.-Turkish alliance, a mainstay since 1946, is dead.

 

This does not mean the two countries are enemies. They still have good relations. But the two governments are not really allies any more.

 

Turks tend to attribute the problems to the Iraq war and to what they see as American indulgence of the PKK, the Kurdish terrorist group trying to seize southeastern Turkey. But the real issue is that the two governments are on different sides regarding the most important struggle of our time.

 

An equally worrisome issue is the long-run trend. What if AK stays in power for a long time? The combination of a large parliamentary majority and choosing Turkey's next president gives it tremendous powers. By naming the judges, it can shape the country's laws; by choosing the armed forces' commander, it can reverse the traditional bar on Islamic-oriented officers and neutralize the military's ability to intervene. Filling the bureaucracy with its supporters will move policies and their implementation closer to an Islamist agenda.

 

In eastern and central Turkey, cities are moving toward the kind of Islamic forms of belief and behavior supported by political Islamists.

 

Those who do not want to face the threat of radical Islam generally are eager to say that all is fine in Turkey -- that the election was a victory for moderation and democracy, and that it's good to have a model of moderate Islamic-oriented politics governing that country. But the victory of AK is not exactly something to be celebrated, even if it can be managed.

 

To avoid the danger of it going too far, to ensure it stays moderate whether or not it wishes to do so, the regime must continue to feel under pressure to stay in the center. This means continuation of the army's power as guarantor of Turkish democracy; that the media not be intimidated; that courts remain independent. An erosion of these control mechanisms could bring disaster.

 

Few outsiders understand that one of AK's sources of appeal -- and, ironically, a cause of anti-Western feeling among domestic critics -- is its claim to enjoy support from the United States, Europe and Israel. Willingness to work with Turkey's government, even if it is an AK one, is not the same as wanting AK to be in power.

 

Western institutions, media and even governments should indicate in appropriate ways that the AK is not their client, and be ready to criticize its behavior.

 

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya and editor of Turkish Studies.

[Jabhad]

Govt faces urgent challenges on economy

Published Date: July 24, 2007

By Selcuk Gokoluk

 

 

Five years of stellar economic performance helped Turkey's ruling AK Party win key parliamentary elections, but it will urgently need to tackle stalled privatizations, social security reform and a spending overrun to keep the economy on track. Turkey has recovered from a deep financial crisis, notching up annual growth rates averaging more than 7 percent over the last four years, while per capita income and tourism proceeds doubled and foreign investments soared to $20 billion last year.

 

But analysts said that the new AK Party government would need to immediately confront urgent issues in the economy. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has already promised to quickly push ahead with reforms. "Our view is that it (AK Party) will have to reverse the pre-election fiscal slippage and reinvigorate the stalled social security reform and privatization process, particularly in the energy sector," UBS EMEA strategist Roderick Ngotho said. The centre-right government delayed implementation of critical IM

F-sought social security reforms to 2008 after a constitutional court veto forced it to revise the package.

 

Ankara has also postponed several privatizations. "The government will have to show good results in these areas if it wants to keep the current IMF programme alive, and potentially have a new program in place when the current one expires in May 2008," Ngotho said. Turkey's $10 billion loan deal with the IMF, which has helped it recover from a 2001 crisis that nearly bankrupted the country, is due to expire next year and analysts say that while Turkey does not need IMF cash, a follow-up deal with be useful.

 

 

With all the votes counted from Sunday's poll, unofficial results gave the Islamist-rooted AK Party 46.6 percent, up more than 12 points on 2002, but a more united opposition means it will get 340 out of 550 seats, slightly fewer than before. It was a personal triumph for Erdogan, a controversial but popular politician, who called the poll early after Turkey's secular elite, including army generals, torpedoed his choice of an ex-Islamist ally as next president.

 

Foreign investors - who poured $20.2 billion into Turkey in 2006 from $1.14 billion in 2002, when the AK party came to power - will watch closely how the new government shapes up. The initial reaction to AK's victory from Turkish markets was positive with the lira shooting to a 6-year high and stocks rising 5.1 percent to a record close on Monday. Investors believe that the pro-business party's second term in office will boost the country's economic and political stability, traders said.

 

Analysts also said the government would have to take measures to compensate a slippage in fiscal targets. "Now there is a 1.5 percentage point deviation in the primary surplus target. The government needs to take measures to resolve that and it will be a wise choice to make spending cuts," Fortis Bank chief economist Haluk Burumcekci. Turkey targets the primary surplus at 6.5 percent of gross national product, but monthly budget figures earlier this year failed to meet targets.

 

The government promised in its pre-election campaign to sustain high growth rates to raise Turkish per capita income to $10,000 in five years and pledged to cut tax on employment to create new jobs for Turkey's fast-growing population. Burumcekci said the government had to implement incentives for the industry to back growth and create much-needed new jobs. The improvement in the $400 billion economy has slowed this year as inflation remains well above the annual target, while manufacturers complain about

high interest rates and an overvalued lira, now at a six-year high.

 

Implementation of social security reforms is critical to stop a spiralling welfare deficit. Ankara has also postponed the sale of electricity grids and tobacco firm Tekel while changing a planned block sale of a key lender Halkbank into a 25 percent initial public offering as a way to avoid losing votes through job cuts and energy price hikes likely to accompany privatization.

 

Turkish manufacturers welcomed AK Party's victory as this means a continuation of the economic and political stability but called for new measures supporting the industry. "Now it is time for clearing the way for the real (non-financial) sector, production, exports and employment. Our most important expectation is implementation of the economic policies friendly to exporters," said Suleyman Orakcioglu, the head of Istanbul Ready-to-Wear Exporters Union (IHKIB). The textile sector is among the most importan

t in Turkey. Turkey has among the highest interest rates in emerging markets, which have crimped demand and made investment more expensive. - Reuters Local News

 

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