Somalia ties Madobe’s role in talks to election withdrawal

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – Somalia’s federal government has barred Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, known as Ahmed Madobe, from participating in the upcoming National Consultative Forum, citing his controversial re-election last year as unconstitutional.

Federal Security Minister Gen. Abdullahi Ismail Fartaag said Madobe’s participation in the talks is conditional on his formal withdrawal from the disputed November 2024 election, which Mogadishu maintains was illegal and violated Somalia’s electoral laws.

“The process that led to Ahmed Madobe’s re-election did not comply with the country’s constitution or electoral procedures,” Fartaag said.

Long-running power struggle

The dispute stems from Madobe’s third-term victory in an election held in Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, on November 25, 2024. The federal government swiftly rejected the outcome, arguing that the process lacked transparency and excluded opposition voices.

The conflict escalated as the Banadir Regional Court in Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for Madobe on charges of treason and violating the constitution. In retaliation, a Jubaland court issued a warrant for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, accusing him of similar offenses — further fueling the political crisis between the two sides.

Jubaland subsequently suspended all ties with the federal government, marking one of the sharpest confrontations between Mogadishu and the regional administration in recent years.

The National Consultative Forum, scheduled for May 1–2 in Mogadishu, is intended to bring together federal and regional leaders to discuss key national issues, including electoral reforms and security cooperation.

Invitations have been extended to the presidents of all federal member states — with the notable exception of Madobe. The move highlights the deepening political rift between Villa Somalia, the seat of the federal government, and the Jubaland administration.  

Diplomats and analysts warn that excluding Jubaland from the talks could undermine national dialogue and consensus efforts.

Local elections press ahead

Meanwhile, the federal government has announced plans to proceed with local council elections in six districts of the Gedo region and two in Lower Juba, areas where tensions between federal and Jubaland forces remain high.

Security Minister Fartaag emphasized the government’s determination to hold the polls, even in the face of opposition from Jubaland authorities.

“If Ahmed Madobe actively obstructs the elections in Kismayo and Afmadow, the government is prepared to take alternative measures to ensure voting proceeds in other parts of Gedo,” Fartaag told Caasimada Online.

The Gedo region, located along Somalia’s southwestern border with Kenya, has been a flashpoint for federal-regional tensions. Both federal troops and Jubaland-aligned militias have vied for control, and recent reports suggest Jubaland paramilitary units have integrated local militias in the contested town of Balad Hawo.

The federal government’s hardline stance toward Jubaland reflects broader challenges in Somalia’s federal system, where disputes between Mogadishu and regional administrations have frequently stalled political progress.

The exclusion of Madobe from the national forum raises fresh concerns over the inclusivity of Somalia’s political process at a time when the country is preparing for direct elections planned for 2026.

Observers caution that efforts to achieve nationwide consensus on electoral reforms and security cooperation could be at risk unless the political impasse with Jubaland is resolved.

“Without genuine dialogue between the federal government and regional leaders, including Jubaland, Somalia’s path toward stable governance and democratic elections will remain uncertain,” said a regional analyst who requested anonymity due to the issue’s sensitivity.