Ethiopian Jets Buzzing over Kismayo

[Castro]

Islamists vow to continue fight in Somalia

 

slamist leaders in Somalia vowed to continue fighting against pro-government forces today even as Ethiopian fighter jets buzzed over Kismayo, their last stronghold.

 

The Islamists fled from the Somali capital, Mogadishu, 260 miles north, yesterday, after being surrounded by Ethiopian troops and fighters loyal to the Somali government. Hassan Dahir Aweys and Sheik Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the top two Islamist leaders, were joined in the southern port city by several thousand militiamen and scores of "technicals" - pick-up trucks with mounted machine guns on the back.

 

“We will not run away from our enemies,” Mr Ahmed, head of the executive committee of the Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), told the Associated Press. “We will stay in Somalia.”

 

Both Ethiopia and the Somali government have pledged to rout the Islamists, who had brought order to most of southern Somalia since they rose to power in June. Speaking from the government base of Baidoa today, President Abdullahi Yusuf said that the allied forces would “go there [Kismayo] and confront them”.

 

At the same time, the government was pondering how to effectively take control of Mogadishu. After discussion with local clan elders, the Somali prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, entered the capital in a 22-vehicle convoy this afternoon, visiting the main port and airport. But though thousands of people turned out on the streets, now patrolled by government troops, Ethiopian soldiers and clan-based militias, his arrival was scarcely one of a “liberator”.

 

For while the Islamists enjoyed significant goodwill in the capital, the weak government is unpopular among the local population, who are mainly from the ****** clan. Mr Yusuf, a *****, is believed to have last visited the city in 1977, and even Mr Gedi, a ****** native of Mogadishu, narrowly survived an assassination attempt there last year.

 

Ethiopia, which fought two wars against Somalia in the 60s and 70s and which accuses the Islamists of being terrorists, is even more widely reviled. In what may be an early sign of trouble to come, several thousand people staged angry demonstrations against Ethiopia’s role, burning tyres and throwing stones in at least two neighbourhoods, according to agency reports.

 

“We do not need and clearly we do not welcome Ethiopian forces here or anywhere in Somalia,” Muhamoud Abdi, a local resident, told Agence France Presse.

 

Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s prime minister, who has already broken his pledge that his troops would not enter Mogadishu, has repeatedly stated that his forces will withdraw swiftly from Somalia - within “weeks”, he said last night. But this is unlikely to happen. Without Ethiopia’s firepower the Somali government may not be able to keep control of the territory it has captured in the past week of fighting.

 

Furthermore, Mr Yusuf’s fractured administration has no money - ministers’ salaries and transport costs are paid by the UN - and no capacity to administer a city like Mogadishu, let alone an entire country. Its strategy of using “friendly” warlords, many of whom were kicked out by the Islamists, to help in the short term is unlikely to increase its support among the population.

 

Even if the Islamists are routed in Kismayo, analysts say that the potential for a long-running guerrilla-style conflict remains. Many of the SCIC fighters did not flee south from the capital, but simply melted back into the population, discarding their uniforms but not their guns. The hardline fighters, particularly the Shabaab youth wing, who are well-trained and highly committed, may see an insurgency as the ideal outlet for their ambitions. And countries like Eritrea, which backed the Islamists as a way of agitating its arch-foe Ethiopia, are unlikely to stop their meddling, analysts say.

 

The Guardian

[Somali_Friend]

Everything tells me that Somalia (2006)and Ethiopia (1991)are very similar if not the same.

 

Ethiopia had Transitional government 1991-1995

Somalia has Transitional government (This is better for it started with what took 5 years to do in ethiopia - federal)

The capital city feels has lost or losing power and is against the new government.

Addis Ababa for the most part is against the government to this day, even now. Demonstration started first day.

The transitional president in somalia comes from the north east and has strong support from a well established state

The transitional president (Meles) came from North and had well organized and support from his organization TPLF.

 

The Transitional Government in ethiopia was most supported from those areas who have been brutally or systematically opressed and forgotten regions.

 

I don't know much about this, but from the Capitals opposition one can safely assume the outerlands will support more the TFG.

 

Somaliland and Eritrea have almost same history, which is same people to Somalia and Ethiopia respectively, but separately colonized for 50 years.