Rebuttal to Prof. Abdinasir Ali’s critique of term extension proposal for President Hassan

[Deeq A.]

I. Introduction: A National Stability Imperative, Not a Power Grab

Professor Abdinasir Ali Osman presents a thoughtful critique of my article supporting the extension of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s tenure. His position is grounded in constitutionalism and democratic norms—values I wholeheartedly share. However, I respectfully disagree with his conclusion that advocating for continued leadership in the interest of national stability constitutes a threat to Somalia’s democratic development.

This rebuttal aims to clarify my original argument, respond to key points raised by Professor Osman, and reassert the view that measured, time-bound, and nationally sanctioned continuity of leadership can serve as a bridge toward a more stable and democratic Somalia.

II. Contextualizing Stability: A Practical, Not Abstract, Necessity

Professor Osman critiques the concept of “stability” as vague and open to abuse. However, in Somalia’s context—where state collapse, terrorist insurgency, natural disasters, and clan-based fragmentation are daily realities—stability is not a rhetorical construct. It is a tangible prerequisite for elections, constitutional implementation, and institutional maturity.

• Security Gains Must Be Consolidated: The government has made unprecedented advances against Al-Shabaab. Yet, gains against insurgency are reversible without continuity in strategic planning and command. A rushed transition, in the current volatile environment, could embolden spoilers.
• Institutional Maturity Requires Time: The critique assumes that Somalia’s democratic institutions are mature enough to withstand any leadership change. This is aspirational but not yet reflective of political realities on the ground. Transitions in fragile states often trigger crises, not consolidation.

III. Constitutionalism vs. Context: A False Binary

Professor Osman rightly emphasizes constitutional governance. My article does not call for a blanket suspension of constitutional norms. Rather, it calls for constitutional pragmatism—a principle used even in mature democracies during times of national emergency.

• The Somali Constitution Is Provisional: As Professor Osman himself notes, the constitution is still provisional. It lacks a binding mechanism for dispute adjudication, electoral timelines, and term interpretations. Hence, political consensus has often substituted for rigid legalism in Somalia’s transitional governance.
• Historical Precedents Support Pragmatism: Many post-conflict nations—such as South Africa during its transition or Rwanda in the aftermath of genocide—have temporarily prioritized stability and reconciliation over formalistic electoral cycles. Somalia, too, must tailor its governance to its unique realities.

IV. The Role of Leadership in Fragile States

Professor Osman warns against the “indispensability” narrative. I fully agree that no leader should be above institutions. However, leadership continuity in fragile contexts is not necessarily personalism; it can be strategic stewardship.

• Hassan Sheikh Is Uniquely Positioned: His track record of peaceful transfer of power in 2017, his public opposition to term extensions, and his ability to maintain constructive relations with international partners and federal states make him a stabilizing figure.
• Leadership ≠ Authoritarianism: Advocating for a time-bound, consensus-based extension does not equate to authoritarian drift. It is a mechanism to allow the current administration to complete critical reforms and ensure a safer, more legitimate electoral environment.

V. Legal and Political Process for Extension

Professor Osman criticizes the lack of constitutional argument for extension. While Somalia’s constitution does not explicitly provide for extensions, political agreements have often shaped transitional timelines (e.g., the 2021 Garowe and Mogadishu agreements).

• A Political Agreement, Not a Decree: Any proposal to extend the president’s term must come through inclusive political dialogue, involving Parliament, Federal Member States, the National Consultative Council, and civil society. This is consistent with Somalia’s hybrid legal-political governance model.

VI. International and Regional Considerations

The role of international partners in Somalia is indeed significant. However, stability, not just elections, is the preferred outcome for Somalia’s allies.

• Donor Confidence Is Linked to Governance Continuity: The IMF’s debt relief framework, the World Bank’s funding mechanisms, and security sector support from ATMIS and the EU all benefit from political continuity during implementation.
• Premature Elections Could Destabilize Progress: Mismanaged elections in 2021 nearly led to conflict. It is prudent to ensure that the next electoral cycle is not only timely but also peaceful, inclusive, and credible.

VII. Conclusion: A Balanced Path Forward

Professor Abdinasir Ali Osman offers a principled defense of constitutional norms, and his critique serves as a vital reminder of the risks of overreach. However, Somalia’s journey to democracy must be carefully navigated, not rushed. The proposition to extend President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s tenure is not a rejection of democracy, but a recalibration of its timing in service of its long-term survival.

I reiterate that any extension must be:

• Time-bound and transparently negotiated
• Anchored in inclusive political consensus
• Subject to parliamentary oversight and judicial review
• Paired with binding commitments to electoral reforms and a clear roadmap

This approach does not weaken Somalia’s democratic aspirations—it safeguards them.

About the Author
Abdi Hilowle (Coowle) is a political analyst and commentator specializing in governance and security. He has contributed to various regional publications and policy platforms on state-building, democratic transitions, and post-conflict recovery.