Somalia: The Impending Battle. Baido Vs Mogadishu

[General Duke]

Somalia: The Impending Battle

Posted to the MOL October 27, 2006, 7:52 am

 

Summary

 

Troops in Somalia are digging in for an anticipated battle between the country's interim government and its allies on one side and the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) on the other. Despite recent successes, a SICC victory is not assured, since the Islamists have yet to prove themselves in a pitched battle. The interim government and its allies face their own logistical obstacles, however. Regardless of who emerges victorious, fears are running high among Somalian civilians that clan reprisals will result from this struggle.

 

Analysis

 

Troops in Somalia are digging in for an anticipated battle between the country's interim government and its allies on one side and the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) on the other.

 

Despite recent successes, a SICC victory is not assured, since the Islamists have yet to prove themselves in a pitched battle. The interim government and its allies face their own logistical obstacles, however. Regardless of who emerges victorious, fears are running high among Somalian civilians that clan reprisals will result from this struggle.

 

 

Somalia's secular interim government and its Ethiopian and regional backers have so far blocked SICC from its goal of preserving and expanding its authority. The SICC now appears to be gearing up to overcome this obstacle. Thus, SICC leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys said Oct. 24 that the time for negotiations with the interim government was over. Aweys dared the interim government's backer, Ethiopia, to invade. Ethiopia's taking up the challenge would benefit SICC since increased Ethiopian involvement would motivate Somalians to support SICC against Christian foreigners.

 

The Islamists began rallying 2,000 troops just east of the interim government's base, Baidoa, on Oct. 26. This move came a day after the Islamists cut off the delivery of fuel from Mogadishu to Baidoa to deny government forces mobility. Aweys intends to hold massive rallies in Mogadishu and other cities under SICC control Oct. 27, a strategy designed to mobilize additional fighters.

 

A SICC victory over Baidoa and Ethiopian and allied troops is not assured, however. First, its base of power is the professed loyalty of Somalian warlords, many of whom could have professed that loyalty for political reasons. There is a substantial difference between convincing warlords engaged in a perpetual power struggle to profess a potentially beneficial loyalty and actually getting them to act on it by deploying their own militias far from their personal centers of power. Second, even if the warlords can be mobilized, finding sufficient transportation to project their forces en masse in southern and central Somalia could prove problematic -- to say nothing of the logistics needed to sustain combat operations. And third, getting those militias to coordinate and operate on the same level as a uniformed military force poses great challenges to the Islamists.

 

Baidoa has the benefit of Ethiopia's backing -- a country with a structured, equipped military, which could prove decisive in any conflict with the fairly ragtag Somalian militias. With additional support from Uganda and Kenya, even logistical support alone, will shift the balance of power even further to Baidoa's corner.

 

Dependency comes at a cost for Baidoa, though. Addis Ababa and its allies face major hurdles, which imperils Baidoa's likelihood of success. Ethiopia has reportedly had trouble in the past supplying its troops on the Somalian border with food and water. Supplying engaged, advancing units would prove even more problematic. Although Ethiopian troops are operating near their own border, their supply lines run much deeper into Ethiopia. Though Ethiopia does field a number of transport aircraft capable of operating from improvised airfields like those in Baidoa, it is probably not capable of supporting a large presence in Somalia solely by air.

 

War in Somalia will involve infantry, trucks and "technicals" -- pickups with heavy machine guns and recoilless rifles mounted in the truck beds. Ethiopia does have some 250 old Soviet-era tanks (T-54s and T-62s) and 300-plus armored reconnaissance/fighting vehicles, not to mention artillery, artillery rockets and air defense. It also would enjoy undisputed control of airspace, fielding 25 Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters and a number of combat fighter jets that could be used to engage massed Somalian militias or bombard a small town in which those militias might shelter.

 

To counter the Ethiopian armed forces, SICC militia and its assortment of warlords riding on technicals reportedly continue to receive weapons from Ethiopia's rival Eritrea, including surface-to-air missile systems, anti-tank recoilless rifles and rocket-propelled grenade weapons systems, heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft artillery cannons. More menacingly than these conventional armaments is the likelihood that hard-liners within the SICC led by Adan Hashi Ayro, an extremist trained in Afghanistan, will recruit foreign jihadists to boost their fighting force. It is believed Yemen will become a transit point for the recruitment of jihadists fighting in Iraq to join the fray in Somalia.

 

The battle for Baidoa is not the ultimate prize, though. To achieve their goals, the Islamists must hold Mogadishu and eject the secular government and its allies from Baidoa. For their part, the interim government and its Ethiopian and Ugandan allies have to hold Baidoa and eject the Islamists from Mogadishu. Neither of these goals is realistically achievable, however. The Islamists cannot project force to take Baidoa from the already-entrenched interim government and its Ethiopian backers. And the Ethiopians would be foolish to try fighting their way into Mogadishu.

 

And while Somalian and neighboring political actors mobilize and maneuver their forces, however, Somalian civilians fear they will bear the brunt of the looming battle. Reprisals against rival clans, especially between the ****** and ****** clans in central Somalia --the clans of Aweys and Interim President Abdullahi Yusuf, respectively -- is a fear that resonates deeply ahead of Somalia's battle.

 

 

Source: Stratfor

[Alle-ubaahne]

[qoute] Baidoa has the benefit of Ethiopia's backing -- a country with a structured, equipped military, which could prove decisive in any conflict with the fairly ragtag Somalian militias. With additional support from Uganda and Kenya, even logistical support alone, will shift the balance of power even further to Baidoa's corner.

[/qoute]

 

That is all you had to dream about, Mr. Duke, the destruction of Allah's forces by those infidels attacking us from the outside.

 

You are now acting as your grandfathers who were the main reason for the colonial powers to invade Somalia, the two kings in Puntland who broke the back of our nation at times of difficult.

[General Duke]

You are now acting as your grandfathers who were the main reason for the colonial powers to invade Somalia, the two kings in Puntland who broke the back of our nation at times of difficult.

 

Ubahane, falsehood is not required, my grandfather was a religious man who did not dable in politics. My kisnmen are also noted as fighting of the Italians both in Hobyo and Bargaal, hence why those regions were the last to be colonised. 1927 was the date when the Kismgdom came to an end.

 

Who were the fighters of the Italians when they attacked the Muslim sultinate of Hobyo? I guess you dont know the history, or maybe you do.

 

As for another point, General Aydeed, had the support of the Ethiopians when he topled the regime of Siyad, right or wrong?

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

heretics are all ways the first to declare they are the agents of God. I for one would like to see a document signed by God before I accept you as gods fighters.

[Alle-ubaahne]

^^General Duke is better than you, in terms of propoganda and knowledge of what he is doing, saaxiib.

 

So, you need to stop pretending him, or the Islamic Courts must whip you 27 times for discipline grounds.