Somaliland is Quietly Become a Regional Flashpoint

[Deeq A.]

Somaliland is Quietly Become a Regional Flashpoint
The would-be state could leverage its location to achieve recognition.
By Julian McBride |

Somaliland is a breakaway state in Somalia that has spent the past few decades fighting and pushing for independence from the unstable turbulence in Somalia.
Somaliland’s people have also suffered from the Horn of Africa’s destabilization resulting from the wars and ethnic cleansing in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan.

Currently, several ongoing conflicts are intertwined with Somaliland’s fight for international legitimacy, and the people of the unrecognized state could suffer the most if this regional cataclysm isn’t contained.

Somaliland’s Status
Against the backdrop of the European scramble for Africa, Somaliland came under the control of British rule, while the rest of Somalia fell under the Kingdom of Italy. In the aftermath of World War II and decolonization, the British Empire granted Somaliland brief independence only if it united with the former Trust Territories of Italy.

After uniting with the Italian protectorate, Somaliland was marginalized in the newly formed constitution, and the northerners gradually rose up against various regimes that controlled Mogadishu. Having reached their threshold of oppression and marginalization, Somalilanders launched a war of independence in 1981 against the federal government.

The Siad Barre regime, which ruled during this time, crushed the uprising, leading to the Isaaq genocide that killed 200,000 people. Somaliland, with its capital in Hargeisa, achieved nominal independence in the early 1990s, albeit without international recognition.

Tensions Between Ethiopia and Somalia
Ethiopia, which once had a presence on the Red Sea during its imperial days, is now a landlocked country without a sovereign trade route. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has looked for access to the Red Sea as Ethiopia’s population continues to rise.

Somaliland could be the key to this strategy. In January 2024, Addis Ababa signed a recognition memorandum with Hargeisa in return for Red Sea access, which triggered condemnation from rivals Mogadishu and Cairo. Somalia already has territorial disputes with Ethiopia, and Egypt is in a state of diplomatic conflict with the latter over the Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam (GERD).

Somalia, which actively lobbies against Somaliland’s self-determination, formed an alliance with the militarily powerful Egypt. In mid-2024, Cairo sent several thousand forces to reinforce Somalia’s position in an effort to coerce Ethiopia and Somaliland into negotiations favorable to Mogadishu.

Turkey quietly intervened as a power broker and lead negotiator, bringing Somalia and Ethiopia to the negotiating table in Ankara in December 2024. Though tensions have subsided, if negotiations break down between Ethiopia and Sudan, a war with Somaliland caught in the middle becomes considerably more likely.

Staging Ground against Houthis and Iran?
Somaliland’s fight for international recognition is picking up support from the Trump administration. Somaliland was one of the places that the administration mentioned as a possible site of relocation of Palestinians displaced from Gaza as part of Trump’s plan to turn the strip into a luxury resort. But Somaliland, which sits adjacent to Yemen along the Red Sea, is also connected to the current conflict involving the Houthis.

Over the past year and a half, the Houthis in Yemen have sustained a frequent campaign against commercial shipping in the Red Sea in support of Hamas, hoping the international community would pressure Israel into stopping the war. Simultaneously, the Houthis are an Iranian proxy that receives funding and weapons directly from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Operation Prosperity Guardian, the U.S. military campaign in 2024, failed to deter Ansar Allah from attacking naval vessels, and the new administration now wants a firmer strategy of containment. In mid-March 2025, the U.S. Fifth Fleet began a sustained bombing campaign to take out Houthi command posts and storage sites.

Reports surfaced in late 2024 that Israel plans to open a military base in Somaliland. Somaliland’s geography would give a further advantage to Israel in its shadow war against Iran by providing launch pads to quickly strike Houthis before their ballistic missiles and drones reach Israel.

With U.S. backing for independence and Israeli military support for its base, any retaliation against Somaliland would almost certainly have repercussions diplomatically and militarily by either the U.S. or Israel. Furthermore, Somaliland does not have any geographic neighbors to their East, except the Red Sea. One of Iran’s key nuclear reactors, the Bouchehr, is located near the Persian Gulf in the vicinity of the coast. If Israel were to one day strike one of Iran’s nuclear reactors, the F-35 Adir squadron could take off from Somaliland and strike Bouchehr directly without flying over Arab land borders, which further gives Israeli pilots opportunities to evade enemy air defense systems.

Although Somaliland has suffered decades of oppression, its fight for recognition may come with ultimatums and coercion from various countries that wish to use Hargeisa geographically to achieve regional goals. If any of those larger geopolitical plans go awry, the people of Somaliland would suffer the most.

FPIF

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