Great Somali Chess Game: Diplomacy, Desperation, Delusions of Control

[Deeq A.]

Ah, Somalia, the land of misunderstanding which by now has one of the world’s most interesting definitions of unity, that of a government. In the last chapter of this political drama, Somalia has brought a new twist by offering share of ports and military base in areas famously known that it has no control over. This has been described as diplomatic, desperate and downright original and has left those observing this political game of chess scratching their heads and chuckling nervously and asking the age-old question: is this really the best performance art piece available out there?

The Generosity of Offering What You Don’t Own

Just for the record, there is something somewhat amusing about Mogadishu’s cantonment’s buxomness in leasing out real estate that it has not directly governed for several decades. Puntland that state in the northeastern part of Somalia declared in 2024 that it would not entertain federalism as it chooses the life of adventure. The self-acclaimed state of Somaliland has been governing itself since 1991 including conducting of elections, having its distinct passports and flag though it is not recognised by international community. Yet here comes Somalia’s federal government, waving a map and saying to America, “Hey guy, this is the place to have a naval base in Berbera”. How about a port in Bosaso?” It is as if they are selling tickets to a mansion, which they lost due to a divorce. One might appreciate it as a positive state of mind, although it seems to be quite unrealistic in real life.

Puntland and Somaliland, on the other hand, have opened their mouths and replied to the Kismayu statement with an eyeroll of a response. Both parties immediately dismissed Mogadishu’s offer in what could be best translated to mean, “No, thanks, we got this”. Somaliland was not wasting any time and had negotiated the best deal with the Americans too, our base for recognition. This point of view can be described as ironic – even more ironic than a Somali sandstorm. The Somali government, which is barely able to exercise power within its confines even within Mogadishu, is now gradually trying to become the representative and coordinator of territories that consider it, at best, a tolerable nuisance.

A Counteroffer? Distraction? Or Just Chaos?

Well, let me tell you this and that: the timing of Mogadishu’s proposal is what would best be described as you know what now. Somaliland’s recognition bid has been still in the process of on and off, especially during the Trump administration when the term ‘unpredictable’ as foreign policy meant ‘hold my beer.’ In Mogadishu there is that rather ominous thought which runs through the population’s vein: What if one fine day the U.S looked at the map and decided to recognize Somaliland? The horror! Therefore, the port-for-patronage model seems less about partnering and more about frustrating Somaliland’s pursuit. It is the diplomatic way of cutting the brakes of your neighbor’s car presuming that he will be an achiever in a race you are not interested in anyway.

Used to being called cynical, some analysts damned Somalia for preparing for the arrival of another foreign actor, especially for a country that has been hosting AU troops, Turkish drones, and occasionally American drones’ attacks. However, it would be beneficial to know that there is no need to have sovereignty when one can hire an outsider for protection? The underlying message is oh so delectable little text: Dear America, please assist us to retrieve these rebellious areas again.’ Furthermore, do not also consider the fact that we cannot control ourselves over them as well. Or maybe Mogadishu has the impression that the perceived appetite for the strategic locations in Somalia is bigger thanks to the allergy the US has towards more entangling nation-building operations.

The Domestic Circus: Al-Shabaab, Federal Feuds, and the Art of Distraction

That reminds us not to forget the domestic origins of this drama. The government of Somalia must face the attacks of Al-Shabaab insurgents, clan conflicts, and federal states that pay lip service to Mogadishu’s control. Both Puntland and Jubaland have mastered the politics of both loyalty and treachery towards the central government in Mogadishu. This could be done not necessarily as a part of a grand strategy, but rather to draw Americans’ attention away from a certain issue. However, one thing that has been proven to bring people together, especially a divided nation, is an enemy, or well, a friend in this case.

Sinha makes one final salient observation before shifting to the pretense of the current reality After all, one must ask the $ 64 question: What does the United States want? For a long time, Washington’s interest in the Horn of Africa has been security-based particularly counterterrorism as well as checking China’s influence in the Red Sea region. Having a base in Berbera or Bosaso might not be a bad thing, but do they really want to deal with the Somali internal problems? It is believed that the willingness of the Trump administration to speak to and even recognize Somaliland at one point was not a matter of principles but was more of business. In Biden’s America, the U.S. has returned to the cautious indecision favoring ‘Somali unity,’ but one cannot expect for how long if Ethiopia, Turkey, or UAE formally recognize Somaliland.

The Open-Ended Question: Masterstroke or Misadventure?

So, what are Somalia’s intentions? The advantage of this situation, if any, is that no one, least of all Somalis, appears to know. Among the theories is one that avails Mogadishu a master mind fully aware of a civil war’s destructive potential and who uses the U.S to recapture lost territories. The other sees it as one last stand for the self to remain relevant in an area that has shifted trajectory. A third opines that it is just another act in a tragedy that has been running for several decades but the script has not been written.

Meanwhile, Somaliland persists in its endless efforts to be recognized with it offering that relative stability accompanied by complement democratic processes to outweigh political apathy. Puntland just stays an observer of the situation in the Somalia’s port capital of Mogadishu and its northwest neighbor Hargeisa. And the U.S.? He might be bogged down with the paperwork of whether it is worth having a base in Somaliland.

Finally, Somalia comes as a desperation card, a prayer, an arrogance and a lucky guess all in one. It is true that it can be celebrated as genius action or can be referred to as folly depending upon the perspective view of the observers. But it was in a place where disorder is the status quo, it becomes not about the intentions involved. It is the question of whether it is possible to know and note the thin line between strategy and survival.

Abdul R Afzal

Afzal is from Pakistan and is Editor in Chief of an international magazine, The Advocate Post. He is also Pakistan’s youngest international journalist, activist, and law student. He currently writes in 12 countries around the world about international relations, geopolitics, legal affairs, etc.

 

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