Breaking News: Turkey has finalized an agreement to establish Somalia as its protectorate

[Deeq A.]

Breaking News: It’s official—Turkey has finalized an agreement to establish Somalia as its protectorate by deploying up to 5,000 SADAT special forces, akin to the Wagner Group in Turkey. This strategic move aims to thwart Al-Shabaab’s advances on Mogadishu and ensure that Hassan Sheikh remains in power through martial law.

Military intelligence and diplomatic sources have confirmed the latest security arrangement awarded to the Erdogan government by Hassan Sheikh, which includes the following key points:

1. Hassan Sheikh will dismiss Prime Minister Hamza, dissolve the current government and parliament, and create a Government Council comprised of 25 individuals to oversee Somalia for the next five years.

2. The Turkish government, under Erdogan, will deploy 5,000 SADAT special forces to secure Mogadishu initially, push back Al-Shabaab, and implement martial law.

3. Hassan Sheikh and his new council of 25 will resort to imprisoning or assassinating key opposition figures who resist the new martial law.

4. Turkey’s renewed support for Somalia is likely to resonate positively with locals in Mogadishu, reminiscent of the Turkish presence during the 2011 famine.

5. As part of the Ankara deal, Ethiopia may support Turkey’s protectorate by sending troops to the Jubbaland region.

6. Hassan Sheikh has awarded new covert concessions, including lucrative oil deals, resource rights, and military and naval bases.

However, the challenges posed by this political shift, reminiscent of the 1969 Siad Barre coup or the Siad Barre fall in the 1989/90s, are significant:

1. Al-Shabaab has already stationed 9,000 troops within Mogadishu and its surroundings, with reinforcements of up to 8,000 expected to launch assaults, potentially turning Mogadishu into a battleground akin to Fallujah.

2. The group has encircled Baidoa and Jowhar and is committed to launching sequential attacks on major cities like Mogadishu, Baidoa, and Jowhar—where they may seize Baidoa and Jowhar in the coming weeks, although Mogadishu may offer resistance due to the presence of Turkish forces and remaining SNA troops.

3. The alliance between Hassan Sheikh and Erdogan is poised to radically alter the political landscape, potentially transforming Somalia into another Libya or Syria.

4. Egypt and Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may rally support for the resistance, mirroring the situation in Libya and potentially leading Somalia into a long-term proxy war.

Global Reactions:

1. The U.S. government, preoccupied with issues in Ukraine and Yemen, is likely to take a cautious approach, waiting to assess the evolving situation in Somalia before committing support/appose.

2. EU nations, already stretched thin with humanitarian efforts in Syria, may find relief in supporting Turkey’s protectorate in Somalia, especially as Erdogan continues his involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

3. The UK may align with the EU’s stance or hold off until the dynamics in Somalia shift.

4. Given that the new AUSUM mission in Somalia has yet to receive funding, international donors, particularly from the West, may back this new arrangement as it could prove less costly or even financially advantageous.

If this plan succeeds within the first two months, Qatar and Turkey may push Al-Shabaab to the negotiation table, leading to a “Doha Version 2.0,” wherein Al-Shabaab might agree to a political settlement, potentially obtaining a role for a prime minister. This could transform Somalia into a Lebanon-style situation, fostering a new Islamist facist regime in the Indian Ocean that could benefit Iran and its proxies in the long term.

@GuledWiliq

Qaran News