Countering alarmist narratives on Al-Shabaab’s ‘power grab’

[Deeq A.]

In response to Adam Daud Ahmed’s op-ed, “From Insurgency to Power Grab: Al-Shabaab’s Deadly Advance on Mogadishu Signals Somalia’s Descent into Disaster,” published in the Addis Standard on March 21, 2025, a critical examination of its central assertions is warranted. Ahmed’s analysis, while aiming to highlight Somalia’s security challenges, presents an oversimplified and alarmist portrayal of Al-Shabaab’s capabilities and the Somali government’s resilience, necessitating a more nuanced and evidence-based assessment.

Ahmed’s core argument, positing Al-Shabaab’s transition from an insurgency to a governing entity poised for the capture of Mogadishu, is fundamentally flawed. This narrative disregards the established pattern of Al-Shabaab’s fluctuating territorial control, characterized by a reliance on asymmetric warfare rather than sustained conventional dominance. This pattern indicates an insurgency focused on disruption, not the establishment of enduring governance.

Furthermore, Ahmed’s analysis omits crucial context regarding the counterterrorism efforts of the Somali National Army (SNA) and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Recent military operations have yielded demonstrable successes, reclaiming strategic territories and disrupting Al-Shabaab’s operational capacity, directly contradicting the notion of an imminent takeover.

The depiction of the Somali federal government as a “failing entity” consumed by internal strife necessitates a more nuanced perspective. Political tensions within Somalia’s federal system, such as those with Puntland and Jubaland, reflect the inherent complexities of a developing federal structure. While significant, these disputes do not necessarily signify systemic collapse. The current administration’s efforts to unify regional states under a national security framework, alongside intensified military operations and increased civilian-military cooperation, demonstrate a proactive approach to security challenges.

The assertion that the fall of Mogadishu would destabilize the Horn of Africa and lead to the establishment of a radical Islamist state is an overstatement. Unlike the Taliban, Al-Shabaab lacks widespread popular support, maintaining control through coercion rather than voluntary allegiance. The Somali population largely rejects the group’s extremist ideology. ¹ Moreover, Somalia benefits from substantial military, intelligence, and financial support from international allies, including the United States, Turkey, Qatar, and the African Union, mitigating the risk of regional destabilization. ² Simplistic comparisons with the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan fail to acknowledge the fundamentally different socio-political context in Somalia, characterized by a stronger tradition of resistance to extremist rule and a robust network of international support.

Instead of alarmist pronouncements, a constructive approach necessitates a balanced analysis that acknowledges both the challenges and the progress in Somalia. This includes recognizing the government’s efforts to strengthen its security apparatus and address governance issues. The international community should prioritize sustained support for Somalia’s stabilization efforts, including military assistance, capacity building, and governance reforms. Emphasizing the resilience of the Somali people and the vital role of community-led resistance in countering Al-Shabaab’s influence is crucial. Sensationalist narratives undermine stability efforts and can create a self-fulfilling prophecy of despair.

In conclusion, Ahmed’s op-ed, while intended to raise awareness, presents a distorted and counterproductive narrative. A more nuanced and evidence-based analysis is essential to inform effective policy and support Somalia’s progress towards stability. The focus must remain on fostering constructive engagement and recognizing the resilience of the Somali people.

About the Author

Prof. Abdinasir Ali Osman is a senior researcher, consultant, and trainer with over 35 years of experience in the humanitarian, development, and institutional capacity-building sectors. His expertise spans the private, public, and non-profit sectors, where he has played a critical role in shaping policies, building institutions, and implementing large-scale programs in Somalia and beyond. A leading expert in migration, governance, peacebuilding, and development, Prof. Osman has dedicated his career to advancing local capacity, institutional resilience, and sustainable development in fragile and conflict-affected environments.

Contact: ipi2024@hotmail.com

Reference:

• Ahmed, A. D. (2025, March 21). From Insurgency to Power Grab: Al-Shabaab’s Deadly Advance on Mogadishu Signals Somalia’s Descent into Disaster. Addis Standard. Retrieved from: https://addisstandard.com/from-insurgency-to-power-grab-al-shabaabs-deadly-advance-on-mogadishu-signals-somalias-descent-into-disaster/#