What’s on the reconciliation dirin?

[Baashi]

1. Security

 

2. Grievances (clan level)

 

3. Properties that changed hands (individual level)

 

4. Power (checks and balances – take away all incentives - modesty salary, periodic audit, financial disclosure prior taking office)

 

5. Federalism (confederation, central republic, regional autonomies, etc)

 

6. 4.5 formula (revision is in order – constituent-based for instance districts that have 20,000.00 will have parliament seat, 50% vote is minimum, if candidates fail to meet the treshold there will be runoff)

 

7. TFG’s mandate (who will replace them, how – explore the transition mechanism)

 

8. Islamists (their role - the name is for any party with political platform that advocates shari'a based constitution)

 

9. Foreign Troops (should we keep them until the trust between Somalis is restored – let’s discuss it plus replace Ethiopia with Muslim troops)

 

10. Somaliland – Puntland dispute (how to tackle the issue – explore the options - name ad-hoc committee drawn from nuetral and trusted statesmen to draft recommendation of how to proceed)

 

11. Somaliand secession issues (address their fears – give them incentives)

 

12. Constitution (revise it and address the contradictions in the draft)

 

13. Minorities – unique issue as they don’t have an influential reps at the table (national apology, compensation, give them an influential seat on the table – Baajuun, Tuni, Jiido, Jareer, Gibil-Cad, Persians, Yemenis, Omanis, Zinzibars – turn over their prime properties in Kismayo, Marka, Barawe, farms areas between rivers, and Benadir)

 

14. Emphasis on Meritocracy and Competence in national offices (enshrined in constitution – offices that handle job discrimination on the basis of clan affiliation – somewhat like equal opportunity employment laws in states but in reverse order- recourse is available for anyone who feels that he/she was overlooked because of clan affiliation)

 

15. Warlords (crimes have been committed and justice has to be served – what to do with them keeping in mind their influential position and how they can derail the reconciliation effort if they feel that their necks are on the line – blank amnesty? Explore the issue)

[Baashi]

Fussing and fighting should give way to talking and reconciling…

Waa Siday Tahay Monthly Journal

By War-San Inna Weer-San

*Commentary*

 

Cyber Mundul, May 16 – Somalia’s woes come in many forms: perpetual anarchy, starvation, piracy, cruel and inhumane extortions imposed on the poor by alternating warlords, slavery, clan-cleansings, and sinister foreign interferences. No one is for keeping Somalia in that state. Almost all Somalis are for normalcy and stability! Somalis with the help of regional and international actors have tried to reconcile the clannish differences between contesting warlords that kept this tiny nation in such sorry and pitiful state. Each and every one of them failed!

 

Today one faction of the contesting warlords appears to be in power. Foreign interest groups seem to be in command, on the ground, and running the show– more powerful and more influential than they have ever been. And Somalia is now part of Uncle Sam’s “war on terror” game plan! Looks like that Neocons have succeeded to compel Ethiopia (another regional player with its own interests in Somalia) to do what it has to do to make sure that a “friendly” regime, any except Islamists, takes the helm in the post-conflict Somalia.

 

In addition to the convergence of regional and super powers’ interest in Somalia, animosity between clans is as high as it has ever been. With recent fighting in Benadir, weakened clans in the area seem to be in a war footing! Kismayo is yet again on the verge of civil war. The control of the port is at stake! All sides are weighing their options. It looks like the differences between the sides are irreconcilable. With the defection of former shadow secretary of defense, the prospect of inter-clan wars in the Lower Juba is all time high! In short, the calculus of negative tribalism has not changed a bit. If anything it has been enhanced by recent sequences of events.

 

Up in the recovery zones politicians from the regions that fall inside the overlapping self-styled borders of these two entities continue to play on both sides of the quarrelling administrations in essence putting their constituents at risk. The recent event in Sanaag highlights their recklessness! The issue of redrawing the borders of what admin controls what district has not been explored let alone resolved. The tensions between the two zones are high but the détente of Garowe and Hargeisa continues to serve as a check to the double-faced politicians. Both sides know that using force in settling the dispute is not an option.

 

Considering all the facts mentioned above, the reconciliation route seem to be the best route open to contesting factions and their loyal clans. The lesson-learned from the sixteen years of all out war between Somalis is that no single clan or coalition of clans has been able to prevail (decisively) in the contest.

 

Past reconciliations efforts too have failed. This one is different, however. The outcome of this reconciliation effort will be binding in the sense that there are teeth behind it. Somalis can use the presence of foreigners on their soil to their advantage. The alternative is a watered down “occupation” and biased support to one faction of the conflict. If post-conflict Somalia is founded on injustice and the defeat of one faction, ten, twenty years down the road, this nation may see another “correction” in the form of another civil war.

 

To ignore the fact that Somalia is now between the jaws of big, bad, and powerful monster is not realistic view anymore. Sit down, talk it over, and come up imperfect but fair framework of managing Somalia.

[Legend of Zu]

I have quickly glanced at the list and i think it has the potential to be a good Agenda for reconciliation dirin.

 

Altho I would like the put the SL related issues at the end i.e. after some sort of progress is made in all other point.

 

Why don't we ask if the Solers can spearhead such discussion... They could be a test sample for the above model.

 

Cheers

[Som@li]

15. Warlords

 

This point should in Number one issue, They lead the country now, powers,and great influence,and will have a final say on the outcome on any government in near future! Somalia will take years to recover from has happened!

 

Anyway, great points Baasha. What can lead country forward is an economic prosperity. if every1 had money, nobody would care about politics,like in the gulf. the Q is , how do you get there! we have so much wealth!

[Baashi]

LZ,

Somaliland/Puntland issue is on the table awoowe. They are seen as clans by other stakeholders in this venture and if we are to have reconciliation of Somalis, by Somalis, for Somalis they need to show up. Of course no one can drag them to the dirin but the need is there.

 

Dabshid,

You gotta be realistic awoowe. Warlords are the ones who are sleeping with the enemy. They call the shots. The minute it becomes apparent that their necks are on line, they will do their best (collectively) to make sure this one fails.

 

Awoowe perfection is not a human attribute. Large swaths of Somalia is in a mess. It has been that way for the last sixteen years. Today we are under the thump of Ethiopia more or less!! We better move on and move this reconciliation thang forward or we will find ourself in very very difficult position.

 

We can keep on pointing fingers and shift blame around! The bottom line is: it is what it is! Ethiopia is here, Uncle Sam is in support of what the Ethiopians are doing, EU barks but no action, AL have been sidelined by the UIC group and they have lost face with the powers that be as it became apparent that they didn't any influence on UIC, and TFG thinks is winning as their nemessis are relagated to the dustbin of history.

 

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the reconciliation effort, if succeeds, is the end of TFG in its current form. If it fails to materialize, TFG will rule by default. Recognition, money, and miltary support...they will have it all.

[xiinfaniin]

Baashow ma maqashay waano abuuris baa ka horraysay! Ama tii ahayd, mar hadduu malag dhawaaqo miidaami dhega ma leh!

 

 

ps--I don’t think tfg or the powers that support it want to hold a genuine reconciliation, where the real issues, as your points allude to, can be considered and discussed! Listen to the old man’s talk in Kampala today, you would realize how visionless the man is!

[Baashi]

The old fart is but one man. he can die any minute! What then? Who are you guys gonna blame next? If willing, the concerned parties can use Uncle Sam's fears to address the reconciliation format. The will to take the negotiation route as opposed to insurgency route must be there awoowe.

[xiinfaniin]

Awoowe, the will is there for the most part! As soon as the reconciliation agenda and its scope get published we will now if it’s a sham or genuine! I have read what Ali Mahdi said and he seems to be ruling out any consideration of changing the form and the composition of the current tfg! Unless there is something we don’t know about this reconciliation thing, what has been announced is non-starter really.

 

Allow sahal!

[Baashi]

Xiin, what is this reconciliation thing good for then?

[xiinfaniin]

Baashe, it’s only good if the warring parts can truly sit down without one being dominant and calling the shots, as the case seems to be. You see it’s proposed that the meeting will take place in Mogadishu, and Mogadishu is under Ethiopian protection. Aside from the tfg, no one else is managing it as of now.

 

Baashe, why do you think Mogadishu of all places, a city that lies in ruins and lacks basic security, is proposed to hold the conference? Perhaps to control the outcome and dictate the terms?

[Fabregas]

8. Islamists (their role - the name is for any party with political platform that advocates shari'a based constitution)

 

9. Foreign Troops (should we keep them until the trust between Somalis is restored – let’s discuss it plus replace Ethiopia with Muslim troops)

 

You and I Know that this isn't going to happen!

[Baashi]

I hear ya awoowe.

 

First are you behind the reconciliation effort if the concerns you have highlighted are addressed?

 

Camel Boy,

That could happen...

[xiinfaniin]

Absolutely; there is no any other alternative. The insurgency is not working at speed needed to rescue Somalia.

[NGONGE]

^^ If you keep calling him 'awoowe' woo kaa xishoonaya, saaxib!

 

Knowing Xiin I'd say that he's 100% against this reconciliation effort and thinks it's a PR stunt by the TFG to trick everyone. He does not trust the TFG and for that reason refuses to accept that a reconciliation effort chaired by them would work.

 

I bet Castro agrees. I do.

[Castro]

^^^ He does.