Somalia-Ethiopia thaw: How Abiy’s visit reshapes the region?

[Deeq A.]

Mogadishu, Somalia – Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived in Mogadishu on Thursday for an official visit to meet with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The visit follows President Mohamud’s unexpected trip to Addis Ababa last month and signals a potential thaw in diplomatic relations between the two nations.

The talks come in the wake of the December 2024 Ankara Declaration, which ended a year-long political standoff triggered by Ethiopia’s controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland.

Many analysts view Abiy’s visit as a critical step toward restoring diplomatic ties between Somalia and Ethiopia, which have remained strained since January 2024.

“We held in-depth discussions on key issues, including peace and security, economic cooperation, diplomacy, and joint infrastructure development. The Horn of Africa is rich in natural resources—fertile land, clean water, and a vast labor force. However, achieving economic self-sufficiency remains challenging,” Abiy stated in a social media post.

“This makes regional integration essential to realizing our shared aspirations. Our region has immense potential that can only be fully harnessed through cooperation. We cannot develop in isolation, but together, we can thrive. A regional approach and collaboration are imperative, and we are ready to work with Somalia to turn this vision into reality.”

The visit marks a tangible step toward implementing the Ankara Agreement and signals Ethiopia’s gradual retreat from its contentious MoU with Somaliland. This shift aligns with the stance of Somaliland’s newly elected leadership, which has shown little interest in implementing the agreement.

Meanwhile, Somalia has reversed its opposition to Ethiopia’s participation in the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

This week, it was announced that Ethiopian troops would officially join the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which was launched last month.

Major diplomatic realignment in the region

Political analysts see these developments as part of a broader realignment in the Horn of Africa’s diplomatic landscape, particularly following the collapse of the Somalia-Eritrea-Egypt alliance.

According to experts, the formation and dissolution of political alliances in the Horn of Africa are recurring patterns.

“Interstate relations in the Horn have always been fluid—sometimes allies, sometimes rivals. The only relatively stable relationship has been between Ethiopia and Kenya. Similarly, Ethiopia’s ties with Djibouti and South Sudan have remained steady. However, Ethiopia’s relationships with Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia have fluctuated over time,” said Dr. Constantinos Berhutesfa, a former African Union official and regional analyst.

He argues that the rapprochement between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa stems from the Ankara Agreement and Somaliland’s ambiguous stance on the MoU.

Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Cirro), previously announced that his administration would review the agreement. This has allowed Ethiopia to quietly distance itself from the deal, which escalated regional tensions last year.

Additionally, this diplomatic shift weakens Egypt’s strategy of isolating Ethiopia through Sudan and its military engagement in Somalia.

Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions looming

Despite Ethiopia’s warming ties with Somalia, regional analysts warn that deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea could fuel new tensions. Since Ethiopia reestablished ties with Somalia, concerns have grown that Eritrea may feel sidelined.

“The Ethiopia-Somalia rapprochement is a positive development, but Eritrea might see it as a setback. Before this new understanding, Somalia was part of a tripartite alliance with Egypt and Eritrea, signed in October 2024. Now, Somalia is aligning with Ethiopia, effectively dismantling the Asmara Agreement,” said Constantinos.

He added, “The key question now is: Can Somalia maintain stability? Given their previous efforts to isolate Ethiopia, how will Egypt and Eritrea react? Will they provide support to Al-Shabaab? Will they actively work to destabilize Somalia?”

Recently, the United States conducted airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab bases in Somalia, underscoring Washington’s continued involvement in regional security affairs.

Ethiopia’s diplomatic rebuilding efforts

Despite its rapprochement with Somalia, Ethiopia still faces diplomatic challenges, including ongoing tensions with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and persistent security concerns. The fallout from the Somaliland MoU significantly damaged Ethiopia’s international standing.

Constantinos suggested that Ethiopia take the lead in organizing an international conference focused on regional peace and security.

“With the new African Union chairperson hailing from the Horn of Africa, he could facilitate such a summit. Ethiopia must prioritize convening a high-level peace and security conference. This could lay the groundwork for stronger regional integration,” he said.

He also noted that Kenya is positioning itself to fill Ethiopia’s traditional role in regional stabilization, as evidenced by its recent peacekeeping operations along its border with Ethiopia.

“This should be Ethiopia’s role,” Constantinos asserted, highlighting that Addis Ababa is home to the African Union (AU), the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and over 120 embassies and international organizations—making it the continent’s diplomatic hub.

“It is time for Ethiopia to reclaim its leadership role in the region,” he concluded, emphasizing that a well-organized international summit could help rebuild Ethiopia’s global standing while addressing the region’s pressing security challenges.

The post Somalia-Ethiopia thaw: How Abiy’s visit reshapes the region? appeared first on Caasimada Online.