Balcad falls & Hiran under attack

[Illyria]

This is technically the northern outskirts of Xamar.

 

 

[Dhagax-Tuur]

Hope they take over.  No other way out. 

[Illyria]

 

 

[Illyria]

Al-Shabaab is gearing up to seize Mogadishu and establish its own government within the next two weeks, capitalizing on the ongoing political tensions within the Federal Government and the capital itself.

Intel Briefing:
1. Al-Shabaab has stationed 3,000 foot soldiers and 200 elite units near the Dara Salaam, Afgooye, and Jaseera areas.

2. Their strategy involves capturing Mogadishu and enticing several ministers from President Hassan’s administration, as well as parliamentarians, to join them in forming a new government.

3. According to military intelligence sources, this operation is set to unfold within the next two weeks.  

Intel Judgement:
Al-Shabaab has already taken control of several key towns in Middle Shabelle, and the President of Hirshabelle has fled Jowhar, seeking refuge in Ali Guduud village after striking a deal with Al-Shabaab to take over Jowhar and Mahadayweyne districts. Furthermore, Al-Shabaab has captured the Balcad district, just 30 kilometers from Mogadishu. They appear to be emulating the Syrian model, aiming to force the current government into negotiations and secure a 30% share of government ministers and the Prime Minister post.  

President Hassan Sheikh's administration is grappling with domestic political challenges, including the normalization of relations with Ethiopia and internal conflicts with Federal Member States and opposition parties. This turbulent environment has created a fertile ground for Al-Shabaab's maneuvers. If the Somali government fails to respond decisively, we could witness a dramatic downfall of the current regime within the next two months.

 

 

 

[Dhagax-Tuur]

Faster already!

[Qurac&qansax]

Intelligence report: Mogadishu is at risk to fall hand of Al Shabaab militant group – Idil News

WWW.IDILNEWS.COM

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Al-Shabaab is gearing up to seize Mogadishu and establish its own government within the next two weeks, capitalizing on the ongoing political tensions within the Federal Government and the capital …

 

[maakhiri1]

It will fall like house of cards, I believe faster than Afghanistan 

[Illyria]

This is relevant re Hudson institute, a DoD outlet released its September report. Its conclusion:

Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity.

Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations.

[ ]

In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak.

[ ]

At present this looks to be the best-case scenario, though unfortunately not the most likely one. But policymakers would do well to consider scenarios that might be acceptable to their interests rather than buy into unrealistic claims about the impending defeat of Africa’s most powerful jihadist group.