US funding freeze threatens Somalia’s war on terror

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – The Trump administration’s abrupt suspension of US foreign aid programs has sparked alarm among security experts and defense officials, who warn that the move could weaken counterterrorism efforts in Somalia, particularly against militant groups such as al-Shabab and the Islamic State (IS).

Last month, the White House issued an executive order pausing all foreign aid programs for 90 days, citing concerns that the “foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests” and “serve to destabilize world peace.”

However, several current and former US officials, speaking anonymously, argue that the suspension is counterproductive, jeopardizing security partnerships and endangering American personnel stationed abroad.

The US spends nearly $10 billion annually on foreign security assistance. While major allies such as Israel, Egypt, and Ukraine were exempted from the freeze, numerous security programs across Africa and the Middle East have been brought to a standstill.

Among them is the Anti-Terrorism Assistance program, which had a $264 million budget in 2023 to strengthen the counterterrorism capabilities of partner nations.

“This is not The Apprentice. You can’t just tell your partners: ‘You’re fired,'” a former US security official said. “Everything we provide—training, equipment, and operational support—is foreign assistance, and many of these nations rely on it to sustain operations that directly protect U.S. interests.”

Impact on counterterrorism in Somalia

One of the hardest-hit regions is Somalia, where the US has played a critical role in the fight against al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked insurgent group responsible for numerous deadly attacks. The funding freeze has led to immediate operational disruptions for Danab, U.S.-trained Somali special forces crucial to counterterrorism missions.

A US defense official revealed that private contractors responsible for building and maintaining Danab bases withdrew abruptly, forcing American troops to take over logistical duties.

Additionally, nearly 400 newly graduated Danab soldiers were left stranded outside an American military base without provisions for food, fuel, or electricity.

Further complicating the situation, medical evacuation (medevac) services for injured Somali soldiers were halted mid-operation.

“Personnel were in a remote combat zone when the stop-work order was issued,” said the defense official. “It remains unclear whether they will be reimbursed for the return flight or any future medevacs.”

Somalia’s forensic capabilities have also suffered. U.S.-supported crime laboratories in Mogadishu and Garowe—which analyze bomb fragments, DNA, and ballistic evidence—have been forced to shut down due to funding cuts.

Lt. Col. Mohamed Mohamud Ahmed, head of Somalia’s police forensics unit, said the closures have disrupted intelligence-sharing with Interpol and the FBI.

“Our mentors have left, and our IT licenses have expired,” Ahmed stated. “Last year, we worked on about 120 terrorism cases. Now, everything has collapsed within a month.”

Expanding security vacuum in Africa

Beyond Somalia, security experts warn that the aid freeze could worsen instability across Africa. A United Nations report this month highlighted that al-Shabab, IS, and other extremist groups remain highly active across the continent, exploiting weak state security structures.

Al-Shabab has carried out high-profile attacks in Kenya, including the deadly 2013 Westgate Mall siege, which killed over 60 people, and the 2019 attack on Nairobi’s DusitD2 Hotel, which left 21 dead.

In northern Somalia, IS fighters have established an operational and financial hub, raising fears of a broader regional insurgency. Local forces battling the group have struggled to secure external military assistance, making them increasingly vulnerable to militant advances.

“If all U.S. funding stops indefinitely, this war [against al-Shabab] will end very fast—and not in our favor,” warned a security expert with extensive experience in Somalia.

Global security ramifications

The White House has not provided a clear timeline for the conclusion of the aid review. However, critics argue that the freeze has strained relationships with key security partners.

With U.S.-backed initiatives stalling, adversaries such as Russia and China may seek to expand their influence in regions traditionally aligned with Washington.

A recent UN report also highlighted increasing ties between al-Shabab and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have targeted global shipping lanes.

Analysts suggest that weakening Somalia’s security forces could inadvertently strengthen these groups, complicating US efforts to contain transnational terrorist threats.

As uncertainty looms over the fate of US foreign assistance, military officials and security experts caution that the long-term consequences could be severe.

“Terrorist organizations exploit power vacuums,” a senior counterterrorism analyst said. “The U.S. risks undoing years of progress in counterterrorism operations, which could come back to haunt us.”