Somali operative now global ISIS chief – UN report

[Deeq A.]

WASHINGTON – A growing number of countries are convinced that Abduqadir Mumin, already the leader of the Islamic State (IS) group’s Somalia affiliate, is now also directing the organization’s global operations, according to a United Nations report.

A recent report by the UN Security Council’s IS, al-Qaeda, and Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Team, drawing on intelligence from UN member states, indicates a “growing consensus” that Mumin has ascended to the top leadership role within IS.

Previous intelligence assessments shared with the UN highlighted Mumin’s growing influence within the global IS network. He was previously identified as head of the “provinces” section, granting him command over IS branches across Africa.

Late last year, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) officials also informed Voice of America (VOA) of their increasing belief in reports suggesting Mumin had become the group’s overall emir, or leader.

This assessment is gaining wider acceptance as numerous UN member states concur that IS is adapting to territorial losses in Iraq and Syria by strategically redeploying key figures like Mumin to other regions.

“This shift may signal a deliberate strategy to adopt a more decentralized and geographically dispersed operational model, moving away from the original conflict zones,” the UN report stated.

However, this assessment is not universally accepted among all nations contributing intelligence.

Some remain skeptical that IS would readily abandon its traditional strongholds in Iraq and Syria. Others question whether the group would permit a leader without a verifiable lineage to the Prophet Mohammed, a historical prerequisite for IS leadership.

Nevertheless, the group’s survival instincts may be overriding such concerns.

Since the death of former IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019 and his successor in 2022, IS has increasingly concealed the identities of its leaders, minimizing their public profiles.

Currently, IS publicly identifies its leader by the assumed name Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, a designation implying he meets the lineage requirement.

“They may have now reconciled themselves to the reality that the emir, or caliph, will never be seen or heard,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former UN official with the Counter Extremism Project, told VOA.

“They may have decided Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi is simply the name they have given to the caliph,” Fitton-Brown suggested. “No one will ever discover he is Somali. His East African accent will never be heard. No one will ever see an African.”

Abu Hafs has already remained in the leadership role longer than his predecessor, who was killed six months after taking power.

If Abu Hafs is indeed Mumin, he also survived a US airstrike targeting him in May 2024.

The UN report indicates that since that strike, Mumin has been actively working to reduce the group’s visibility to external scrutiny.

The report identifies Buur Dhecad as Mumin’s operational center. This complex of caves and fortified positions in the rugged Cal Miskad mountains within Somalia’s Golis range is believed to offer natural protection against Western airstrikes.

However, recent US airstrikes this month targeting the same area are testing this assumption.

US officials reported that these strikes killed Ahmed Maeleninine, a senior external operations leader, along with 13 other fighters.

IS-Somalia: Expanding influence and revenue

The UN report highlights the growing strength of IS-Somalia under Mumin’s command, noting its expanding influence and revenue streams.

Intelligence from UN member states reveals that IS-Somalia has broadened its extortion activities within its controlled territories. The group is using these illicit funds to strengthen its military capabilities, including acquiring drones for reconnaissance and deploying suicide attacks.

Despite this growth in resources and reach, IS-Somalia, once bolstered by foreign fighters, is now facing internal challenges.

The report points to increasing defections within IS-Somalia, citing “grievances over the integration of clan-based fighters, socio-economic hardships, and harsh conditions” as primary drivers.

Furthermore, intensified efforts to intercept foreign fighters before they reach Somalia also impact the group’s recruitment.

Syria and Iraq remain IS focus  

While key IS leaders may be seeking refuge in Somalia, the group has not abandoned its ambitions to regain lost ground in Syria and Iraq.

The UN report estimates that IS still maintains a significant presence of between 1,500 and 3,000 fighters across both countries, with the majority based in Syria.

Emerging intelligence suggests IS may have exploited recent instability within Syria.

According to some UN member states’ intelligence, IS fighters mobilized during a period of setbacks for the Syrian government in December, coinciding with attacks by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant Islamist group in Syria.

Intelligence indicates that one IS operative infiltrated the al-Hol displacement camp in northern Syria. From there, the operative reportedly extracted experienced fighters while recruiting younger individuals.

This operative is believed to have reactivated an IS unit within al-Hol, which is responsible for intelligence gathering, youth training, recruitment, and financial administration.

Additionally, the report warns of increasingly sophisticated attacks carried out by IS against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

In Iraq, IS has been significantly weakened by sustained pressure from Iraqi security forces, including an operation in August that resulted in the death of the IS deputy leader and 13 other senior commanders.

However, the UN report emphasizes that IS in Iraq retains “an ability to operate and replace its battlefield commanders,” indicating resilience despite leadership losses.

Concerns over Afghan affiliate

UN member states continue to express concern regarding the IS affiliate in Afghanistan, known as Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K).

The report describes IS-K as the “most serious threat” within Afghanistan, highlighting its capacity to infiltrate the Taliban administration and exploit discontent among marginalized groups. These include hashish farmers and ethnic Tajiks, who have voiced grievances against Taliban rule.

UN intelligence estimates IS-K possesses between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters in Afghanistan and is actively expanding its capabilities, seeking new recruits from Central Asia.

The report details how IS-K has established human smuggling networks to facilitate the entry of fighters into Afghanistan through Türkiye and Iran.

The report also emphasizes IS-K’s ability to reach into Europe and recruit young individuals.

“The increasing number of foiled attempts highlights the group’s persistent intent and capacity to conduct high-profile attacks in European territory, particularly against vulnerable targets and crowded public spaces,” the report concludes.