A Nation on the Brink: Somalia’s Security Crisis and the Rise of Daesh

[Deeq A.]

Somalia stands at a dangerous crossroads, with its security architecture unravelling under the pressures of resurgent terrorism, deep-seated corruption, and the politicisation of military resources. While Al-Shabaab has long posed the greatest threat to stability, the expansion of Daesh into northern Somalia has exacerbated an already volatile situation. Simultaneously, clan militias armed and emboldened by the federal government have turned against one another, pushing the country closer to civil war.

At the heart of this crisis is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose administration has prioritised political consolidation over national security. Instead of forging a unified counterterrorism strategy, his government has hoarded military resources in Mogadishu, depriving frontline regions such as Puntland, Jubaland, and Galmudug of critical reinforcements. Alarmingly, rather than supporting Puntland’s decisive military campaign against Daesh, Mogadishu has actively obstructed its efforts, blocking intelligence, restricting logistical assistance, and undermining Puntland’s operations through disinformation campaigns. The consequences of this negligence have been profound. Terrorist groups have exploited the security vacuum, expanding their influence and imposing oppressive taxation on businesses.

Meanwhile, regional leaders left without federal support have been forced to wage isolated battles against an escalating tide of extremism. At the same time, corruption has reached unprecedented levels, with government land, including military bases and even graveyards, being sold to the highest bidder. Thus, Somalia’s crisis is no longer just a domestic governance failure; it has become an international security threat. If the federal government continues on this trajectory, the country risks becoming a breeding ground for transnational terrorism, further destabilising the Horn of Africa. The international community must act now not only to investigate corruption but also to ensure that counterterrorism efforts receive the necessary support before it is too late.

Mogadishu’s failure to effectively utilise its military resources has exacerbated the worsening security situation. The lifting of the UN arms embargo in December 2023 was widely hailed as a turning point, offering Somalia’s armed forces access to advanced weaponry, drones, and heavy artillery. However, instead of deploying these assets to volatile regions, Hassan Sheikh’s administration stockpiled them in Mogadishu, sidelining the most needed forces.

For Puntland, where Daesh had already expanded its presence in the Galgala Mountains, repeated requests for reinforcements were ignored. A similar pattern emerged in Jubaland and Galmudug, where Al-Shabaab continued its ruthless campaign of assassinations and economic extortion. Meanwhile, soldiers in these regions were forced to rely on outdated equipment. At the same time, newly acquired weapons and armoured vehicles remained unused in Mogadishu, seemingly reserved for political leverage rather than national security.

This failure to allocate military resources has reinforced speculation that Hassan Sheikh is more focused on consolidating power than eradicating terrorism. By keeping the military under his direct control, he has ensured that regional administrations remain dependent on Mogadishu; effectively, the weapon is in security as a political tool.

Nevertheless, his strategy has backfired. Rather than waiting for federal support that never arrived, Puntland took matters into its own hands. In late 2024, its security forces launched an all-out offensive against Daesh, successfully eliminating dozens of foreign fighters and disrupting the group’s financial networks. This military campaign demonstrated that a disciplined approach could contain Somalia’s terrorist threat. However, rather than supporting Puntland’s efforts, Mogadishu responded with hostility, blocking intelligence-sharing, restricting logistical aid, and even orchestrating a social media campaign to discredit the operation.

Instead of addressing the root causes of extremism, Mogadishu resorted to a reckless approach, arming clan militias under the guise of “community defence.” This misguided policy further destabilised the country, plunging it into factional violence.

Perhaps the most reckless aspect of Hassan Sheikh’s security strategy has been his reliance on clan militias. The federal government has armed local factions, bypassing the Somali National Army and igniting inter-clan violence. In theory, these militias were intended to supplement national security forces in the fight against Al-Shabaab. In reality, they have turned their guns on each other, deepening instability rather than countering extremism.

Nowhere has this policy been more disastrous than in Hiiraan and Mudug. In Hirshabelle, rival militias armed and emboldened by Hassan Sheikh have turned against one another, torching villages and displacing over 20,000 families. In Mudug, federal-backed factions have engaged in deadly clashes, using government-supplied weapons to settle long-standing disputes. Instead of reinforcing Somalia’s security forces, this reckless approach has rekindled deep-rooted clan wars, dragging the country further into instability.

The consequences have been catastrophic. Entire communities have been uprooted, critical infrastructure has been reduced to rubble, and Al-Shabaab has seized the opportunity to expand its influence. Rather than stabilising Somalia, Mogadishu’s policies have splintered the country into a patchwork of Al-Shabaab and Daesh expansion, with armed fiefdoms locked in a desperate struggle for control.

Unlike Mogadishu’s chaotic and politicised military policies, Puntland has pursued a structured and disciplined approach to security governance (Samatar, 2022). Instead of distributing arms to clan militias, Puntland has maintained a state-controlled security apparatus prioritising military discipline and adherence to international law (Bryden, 2021).

Puntland has emphasised that only a disciplined military should engage in combat while communities focus on logistical support. This approach has enabled Puntland to maintain stability while effectively countering extremist threats. Rather than fostering lawless paramilitary groups, Puntland’s administration has mobilised financial and logistical backing from the Somali diaspora, ensuring sustained counterterrorism efforts without contributing to further fragmentation (Hoehne, 2020).

Hassan Sheikh’s failure to prioritise counterterrorism has emboldened Daesh to expand beyond its traditional strongholds. Once confined to Puntland’s remote mountains, the group has now infiltrated urban centres, using intimidation, assassinations, and economic extortion to tighten its grip. Businesses are coerced into paying taxes under threat, while local leaders who resist are swiftly eliminated. This escalation of terror is a direct consequence of Mogadishu’s refusal to provide military and logistical support to Puntland’s security forces.

Daesh has welcomed foreign operatives and intensified its recruitment efforts, preying on economic despair and political instability. Vulnerable youth, disillusioned by the lack of opportunity and weak governance, have been radicalised into extremism, advancing an agenda that aligns with Somalia’s external adversaries.

Without urgent intervention, Puntland risks becoming the epicentre of a new insurgency. Its strategic location along the Red Sea provides Daesh with a launchpad to disrupt critical maritime trade routes, escalating insecurity across the Horn of Africa.

The unchecked rise of Daesh in Puntland is not just a Somali crisis; and it is an imminent international threat. If left unaddressed, this growing instability will provide extremist factions with strategic access to international shipping routes, amplifying threats to global trade and security.

The international community must recognise that Mogadishu’s failures are no longer confined within Somalia’s borders. The United Nations and the African Union must formally investigate Somalia’s military mismanagement, systemic corruption, and deliberate obstruction of counterterrorism operations.

Somalia’s current trajectory is unsustainable. The federal government’s failure to prioritise security, its politicisation of military resources, and its rampant corruption have pushed the nation to the brink of collapse. Yet, Puntland’s determined fight against Daesh has demonstrated that regional-led security strategies can be far more effective than Mogadishu’s dysfunctional federal approach.

The time for diplomatic caution has passed. The international community must take decisive action, ensuring that counterterrorism resources reach those actively fighting to protect Somalia. If Mogadishu persists in undermining national stability, global actors must bypass it and directly support those genuinely working to defend the country’s future. Anything less would be a dereliction of duty to global security.

By Hussein Soyan

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