Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe eyes Somalia presidency in 2026

[Deeq A.]

KISMAYO, Somalia – Ahmed Mohamed Islam, commonly known as Ahmed Madobe, the long-standing President of Somalia’s semi-autonomous Jubaland state, has indicated his intention to run for the presidency of Somalia in the 2026 national elections, according to sources familiar with his plans.

During a two-week stay in Nairobi, Madobe reportedly confided in select Somali parliamentarians, political figures, and business leaders about his presidential aspirations. These discussions, held behind closed doors, suggest a strategic move by Madobe to transition from regional leadership to the national stage.

A decade of regional leadership

Ahmed Madobe has led Jubaland since 2013, securing re-election for a third term in November 2024. His tenure has been marked by both development initiatives and ongoing security challenges, particularly in combating the al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabaab.

Despite efforts by successive federal administrations to unseat him, Madobe has maintained his position, often clashing with Mogadishu over governance and resource control.

Tensions between Jubaland and Somalia’s federal government have escalated in recent months. In November 2024, Jubaland announced the suspension of all relations and cooperation with the federal administration, accusing it of constitutional violations and undermining regional autonomy.

This move followed disputes over regional elections and mutual accusations of power usurpation.

The strained relationship has led to significant security and economic challenges for Jubaland. Federal-imposed sanctions and military actions have reportedly destabilized the region.

Jubaland’s Security Minister, Yusuf Dhuumaal, acknowledged the adverse effects of these measures, expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue with the federal government to restore stability.

If Madobe proceeds with his presidential bid, he will follow in the footsteps of other regional leaders who have sought national office. Notably, Said Deni, the President of Puntland, contested the presidency in the most recent election, achieving a commendable performance against the incumbent, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Looking ahead to 2026

As Somalia approaches the 2026 elections, Madobe’s potential candidacy adds a significant dimension to the nation’s complex political landscape. His leadership in Jubaland and the ongoing tensions with the federal government will likely influence his campaign and the broader electoral dynamics.

Ahmed Madobe emerged as a prominent figure in Somalia’s political scene in the early 2000s. Initially associated with Islamist movements, he later aligned with regional and international efforts to stabilize southern Somalia.

As President of Jubaland, he has been a pivotal player in the fight against al-Shabaab. He has navigated the intricate clan-based politics of the region.

Jubaland, located in southern Somalia, has a strategic border with Kenya and a coastline along the Indian Ocean. Its capital, Kismayo, is a vital port city that has historically been a commercial hub.

The region’s stability is crucial for both Somalia and neighboring countries, particularly in efforts to curb militant activities and enhance economic development.