The Case for U.S. Recognition of Somaliland: A Strategic Shift in the Horn of Africa Opinion

[Deeq A.]

The Horn of Africa has become a focal point for global power rivalries, with countries establishing military bases and leveraging economic investments and trade partnerships to secure their interests through soft diplomacy. China, a major power, established a military base in Djibouti in 2017 and continues to expand its influence through economic cooperation. Similarly, the United States operates its largest military base in Africa, Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti, a key hub for AFRICOM operations. However, the U.S. has been seeking an alternative military post to Djibouti as China expands its influence in the tiny strategic republic. Somaliland became the relevant candidate in this quest.

Somaliland maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan and hosts representative offices of several Western countries as well as Djibouti, Kenya, and the UAE. presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. to its credit. Somaliland has its military, flag, currency, and functioning institutions, making it a distinctive and stable entity in a region often plagued by instability. Following the November 13, 2024, presidential and political association elections which were widely regarded as free, fair, and peaceful by international observers, Somaliland elected its sixth president and reaffirmed its commitment to democratic governance. This election bolstered hopes for global recognition, a goal that Somalilanders have tirelessly pursued for decades.

Notably, recent developments in the United States suggest a potential shift in policy toward Somaliland. In December 2024, Congressman Scott Perry of Pennsylvania introduced a bill in the House Foreign Affairs committee, advocating for U.S. recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. Additionally, reports indicate that the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump may be more receptive to this idea, given his administration’s interest in countering China’s growing influence globally.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa marked by maritime and border disputes and Somalia’s relentless efforts to obstruct Somaliland’s independence aspirations, recognizing Somaliland could yield significant strategic advantages for the U.S.. Formal recognition would not only solidify security cooperation between Somaliland and the U.S. but also provide a crucial foothold to counter China’s influence in the region. By becoming the first country to recognize Somaliland, the U.S. could reshape the geopolitical dynamics of the Horn of Africa, while advancing its strategic interests. In this regard,

Evolving U.S.- Somaliland Relations: A History of Strategic Collaborations

The relationship between Somaliland and the United States has sparked considerable optimism, driven by shared interests and mutual benefits. While the current ties remain informal, a history of collaboration, particularly in security and democratic governance, underscores the potential for more strategic partnerships.

Somaliland’s first two presidents Abdirahman Aw Ali Farah and Mohamed Haji Egal spent the bulk of their time dealing with internal instability and consolidation of state power. Despite President Egal becoming the first Somaliland leader to visit the U.S. in 1998, nonetheless, relations remained cordial and not significant. Things changed at the start of the U.S. global war on terror where Somaliland under President Rayale presented itself as an ally to the U.S. and Ethiopia in fending off terrorists in Somalia.

A significant milestone in this relationship was achieved in January 2008, when Rayale led a historic high delegation to Washington D.C. This visit marked the first time a Somaliland president engaged directly with senior U.S. officials, including representatives from the Department of State, USAID, the Department of Defense, and the National Security Council. These discussions explored avenues for cooperation on regional security, economic development, and democracy promotion, key areas of mutual interest.

Somaliland further demonstrated its growing significance to Washington by hosting a high-level Congressional staff delegation, welcomed by President Muse Bihi. The delegation included members from the influential committee, and the House Appropriations and Conservation Committee, along with senior policy advisors from Washington, D.C.Their visit included a tour of the Port of Berbera, a strategically critical infrastructure hub in the region. These engagements highlighted Somaliland’s emerging role as a key partner for the U.S. in advancing regional security and development.

This momentum continued with President Bihi’s visit to Washington where he pitched Somaliland’s strategic importance and democratic credentials to U.S. officials and lawmakers. As a result, lawmakers in Congress proposed a bi-partisan bill called the “Somaliland Partnership Act” which called for the U.S. government to explore ways to engage with Somaliland more directly. Influential names in Washington’s Africa circle including Peter Pham and Tibor Nagy later visited Hargeisa and openly called for the U.S. to deepen ties with Somaliland. Both names are poised to play management while Pham is expected to take the role of assistant secretary of state for African affairs building on his extensive experience in the continent.

This steady increase in high-level exchanges reflects growing recognition of Somaliland’s strategic importance and its potential as a stable partner for advancing U.S. objectives in the region, including countering China’s influence, fostering regional security , and promoting democratic values.

Leveraging Somaliland as a counterbalance to China

Geopolitical competition is a defining force in global affairs, as powerful nations compete to exert political and diplomatic influence over strategically vital regions. The Horn of Africa stands at the heart of this competition, serving as a pivotal geopolitical hub. Positioned at the crossroads of global trade, with 30% of maritime traffic passing through its waters. Over the years, this strategic significance has attracted military bases from global powers, including China, the United States, and Turkey. Somaliland, occupying a key position in this region, is emerging as a natural counterbalance to China’s increasing influence in Africa.

In recent developments, the U.S. House Select Committee has urged the U.S. State Department to open a diplomatic office in Hargeisa, to strategically counter China’s expansionist activities in the Horn of Africa. China does not maintain diplomatic relations with Somaliland as the latter engages in bilateral relations with Taiwan.

Reports have also indicated that the Trump administration recognized the potential of Somaliland’s international recognition as an available strategic partnership. Such a partnership would align with U.S. interests in the Horn of Africa, enabling democratic collaboration that could serve to balance China’s growing presence in the region.

Why is Somaliland so important?

Situated along one of the world’s busiest and most strategically significant maritime trade routes, Somaliland stands as a beacon of stability and peaceful governance in a region historically marked by conflict. Its commitment to free, fair elections based on security, and its peaceful transfer of power, underscores its potential as a reliable partner in regional peacekeeping efforts. Somaliland must forge strong alliances, particularly in the areas of maritime security and counterterrorism, to ensure the continued safety and economic prosperity of the region.

However, the political dynamics in the Horn of Africa have seen significant shifts, especially with the recent maritime agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia, signed on January 1, 2024. This agreement has redefined the foreign policy landscape in the region, sparking tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia. Somalia’s objections, claiming the infringement of its territorial sovereignty, are noteworthy, yet it remains clear that Somaliland has maintained full administrative independence since its separation from Somalia in 1991. Despite Ethiopia and Somalia recently experiencing a rapprochement potentially shelving the MoU, however, there is an underlying sense that Ethiopia will keep the MoU with Somaliland in its pocket in the event of the detente with Somalia unraveling.

In this context, U.S. recognition of Somaliland could act as a pivotal turning point for both security and diplomatic relations in the Horn of Africa. With recognition, Somaliland would be better positioned to collaborate with the United States and its regional neighbors to bolster security, enhance trade relations, and attract investments, all of which would contribute to the region’s overall stability and cooperation.

While it is acknowledge that U.S. recognition could stir disputes and create new challenges, it is equally compelling to argue that acknowledging a nation that has built peace, democracy, and order in the absence of international recognition is not only a rational decision but one that supports the broader goal of promoting stability and democratic values in the Horn of Africa.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Fathi Jama is a researcher with a Master’s degree in Political Science and International Relations, specializing in the political dynamics of the Horn of Africa and Somaliland. His work explores regional security, peace-building efforts, and the quest for international recognition of Somaliland. You can reach him at fathijamd2087@gmail.com.

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