Somali Prime Minister faces no-confidence motion

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – Political efforts to unseat Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre are gaining momentum in Nairobi, Kenya, where members of Somalia’s House of the People are meeting to strategize.

Lawmakers are reportedly finalizing plans for a no-confidence motion against Barre, which they intend to submit during the 6th parliamentary session set to open in February.

The draft motion is already underway, according to sources close to the discussions. If passed, it could bring Barre’s tenure to an abrupt end. However, should he survive this challenge, he may cement his position as one of Somalia’s longest-serving prime ministers in recent history, a rare feat in the country’s tumultuous political landscape.

Rising political tensions

The looming no-confidence motion reflects mounting tensions in Somali politics. Observers note that parliamentary activity often wanes after the 6th session as the focus shifts toward preparing for national elections. This timeline adds urgency for Barre’s opponents, who aim to act swiftly before political attention dissipates.

The situation escalates hostilities between Barre and Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, widely known as Ahmed Madobe. Their feud intensified following a military confrontation in Ras Kamboni, a strategic border town, where federal forces clashed with Jubaland troops.

The incident marked a significant escalation in the long-running rivalry between Somalia’s federal government and the semi-autonomous Jubaland state.

Madobe, who is currently in Nairobi, has reportedly been rallying support for the motion among Somali lawmakers. His defiance of a federal ban on international travel further underscores the depth of his resistance to Mogadishu’s authority.

Analysts view his lobbying efforts as a key component of the broader political battle taking shape.

Federal vs. regional power struggles

The conflict between Somalia’s federal government and its regional states has long undermined political stability. Jubaland, located in southern Somalia, has been at the center of these disputes, with disagreements over resource control, security, and political autonomy frequently surfacing.

Ahmed Madobe, a pivotal figure in Somalia’s federalism debates, has consistently resisted federal efforts to centralize power. His ongoing challenge to the government, both politically and militarily, underscores the fragile nature of Somalia’s governance system.

The outcome of this no-confidence motion could have far-reaching consequences. If Barre is removed, it may deepen political instability as Somalia prepares for national elections. Conversely, his survival could strengthen his administration but risks further polarizing relations with regional leaders like Madobe.

The motion also highlights the persistent inability of Somalia’s political elite to reconcile their differences and focus on pressing national issues such as security, economic reform, and reconciliation.

The stakes are particularly high as international partners look for signs of stability in a country struggling with decades of conflict and governance challenges.

As the 6th parliamentary session approaches, all eyes will be on developments in Nairobi and Mogadishu, where the battle over Somalia’s political future unfolds.