Ethiopia’s Political Paradox of Choice in Somalia

[Deeq A.]

Abiy Ahmed (left),Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (middle) and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Ankara last week.

Mogadishu (PP Editorial) — The former Somaliland administration’s Foreign Minister, Essa Keyd, told the BBC Somali Service that the former government had handed over the files on the maritime Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that former Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi signed with Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. “Experts from the Somaliland administration and the Ethiopian government held several technical meetings on the maritime MoU. The recent Türkiye-facilitated Somalia-Ethiopia talks have no bearing on the MoU,” said Keyd.

In Ankara, the Ethiopian Prime Minister committed to respecting the territorial integrity of Somalia and stated that he would deal with the Federal Government of Somalia on anything to do with leasing a coastal district in Somalia.

Ethiopia finds itself saddled with what can be described as a political paradox of choice in Somalia: every Somali political entity — be it the Federal Government of Somalia, a Federal Member State, or a secessionist administration — is seeking to co-opt Ethiopia to politically outmanoeuvre a rival entity.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry published details on the Ankara Agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia. “They [(President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia)] acknowledged the potentially diverse benefits that could be derived from Ethiopia’s assured access to and from the sea, whilst respecting the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia. They further agreed to closely work together to finalise mutually advantageous commercial arrangements through bilateral agreements, including contract, lease, and similar modalities, which will allow the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia to enjoy reliable, secure and sustainable access to and from the sea, under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia.” 

Ethiopia is undecided about which strategy to pursue: to promote a quixotic secession in northern Somalia in the hope of gaining a lease on a coastal part of the Awdal region, or to throw its weight behind the feeble Federal Government of Somalia, which can legally lease a coastal area to Ethiopia for sea access.

The word “lease” was the bone of contention in the 2024 maritime agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland administration, yet it cropped up in the Ankara Agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia. Upon returning to Hargeisa from Ethiopia in January 2024, Muse Bihi accused President Hassan Sheikh of wishing to sign the MoU in the name of Somalia to lease a coastal district to Ethiopia. He might have had a point.

© Puntland Post, 2024

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