Bashiir Raage loses strongholds?

[General Duke]

Garabka Abuukar C. Cadaan oo saxaafadda u ogolaaday in ay arkaan goobihii ay qabsadeen.

 

Mogadishu 26 March. 06 ( Sh.M.Network) Garabka Xaaji Abuukar Cumar Cadaan ayaa maanta saxaafadda shir jaraa'id ugu qabtey goobihii ay gacanta ku dhigeen ee Ceel-Cadde, Ciisaleey iyo Galgalato, ka dib dagaalka qaraar oo socday 4 maalmood oo shalay soo gabogaboobay.

 

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[General Duke]

Horn Afrik i think this will support your argument concerning Bootaan..

 

Bootaan Ciise oo beeniyay inay beeshiisa heshiis la gashay Maxkamadaha

 

Muqdisho (YOL 26, Maarso 06) Bootaan Ciise Caalin oo ka mida xubnaha asaasayaasha isbaheysiga argagixiso la dirirka wasiirna ka ah dowladda Federaalka ayaa beeniyay inuu jiro wax heshiis ah oo uu la galay Maxkamadaha, wuxuuna caddeeyay inay weerar ku soo qaadeen ciidamadiisa, kuwo maxkamado sheeganaya wax heshiis ahna aanu jirin.

 

Wuxuu sii raaciyay inuusan ka war heynin heshiiska la shaaciyay ee beeshiisa Duduble ay la gashay, wuxuuna caddeeyay in iyagu weerar lagu ahaa oo difaac ay ku jiraan weli, dagaalada istaagayna ay u joogsadeen iskood markii tabar la isku waayay oo la isku riiqaday sida uu sheegay.

 

 

 

Isagoo u warramayay Idaacadda Banaadir ayuu sheegay Bootaan Ciise inuu diyaar u yahay nabadda iyo in la joojiyo dagaalka, isla markaana xaaladda nabad lagu soo dabaalo, isagoo si cad u sheegay inuu ka mid yahay Isbaheysiga, oo weerar aanay ahayn balse la soo weeraray.

 

Waxaa soo ururiyay

Shariif Macallin

Muqdisho-Somalia

[Gabbal]

Just what I thought. All these warlords care about is their person. Waxa loogu baxshe Xaaraan-ku-naax ayuu heysta.

 

Pictures that proof Abubakar Cadaan/Islamic Courts' has bested Bashir Raage/Isbahaysiga Shaydaanka.

[codetalker]

^

 

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Since both groups are claiming "victory," where are the pictures of victory from the other side? Radio Shabelle is simply reporting one side [Maxkamadaha] of the conflict.

 

The good news is that the fighting has stopped.

 

I'm convinced that Baydhabo remain the temporary Capital. Absolutely convinced.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by codetalker:

^

 

That's

exactly what I'm talking about. Since both groups are claiming "victory," where are the pictures of victory from the other side? Radio Shabelle is simply reporting one side [

Maxkamadaha

] of the conflict.

I find Shabelle to be one of the most objective and media savvy Somali news sources out there. If you disagree, you are more then welcome to sxb. Waa shirkad madaxbanaan, iyadeena u taal.

 

As for the other side's call for "victory" (so far only carried by Puntlandpost which I have noticed is not exactly one of the most reliable sites out there), call it a bluff. This is the proof.

[General Duke]

^^^ Horn, Puntlandpost did not report a victory for Raage, only that his men reclaimed their areas... It seems conclusive that the Banadir company has gained an advantage..So Shabele wile biased has not been inaccurate in their reporting.

[Gabbal]

So Shabele wile biased has not been inaccurate in their reporting.

Well it was "this" reporting aan isku haysane.

[General Duke]

^^^ Horn Afrik & Shabele do have a tendency to side with their kinsmen in all issues. However I do not dispute that their [shabele] coverage of recent events has been competent.

[Gabbal]

I am not here to defend HornAfrik or Shabelle sxb. They are independent news boradcasts and it's not in my position to defend them.

[General Duke]

^^^ Nor did I expect you to defend them..

Now let me ask you and others here how do you see this playing out?

 

It seems the warlords for the fisrt time are on a back foot..

[codetalker]

HORN -

 

Objectivity? Radio Shabelle? If you want objectivity from any of the Xamar-based radio stations, listen to Radio Banadir (MMA, I'm surprised you didn't mention Banadir along with Hiiraan + Midnimo). They don't have any interest vested in the victor of the ongoing conflict, which is more than I can say for Shabelle + HornAfrik.

 

Originally posted by General Duke:

It seems the warlords for the fisrt time are on a back foot..

Maybe you see a difference between Maxkamadaha and the warlords, but I dont. Indhocade is a warlord of the worst kind. Anyone who fights alongside him is just as guilty.

 

At the end of the day, everyone involved in this fight is a warlord. No one is fighting for a Divine ideology - everyone is willing to fight for and defend their piece of the pie (granted that the Maxkamadaha have some sort of vision or goal vis-a-vis the warlords, who are content keeping Xamar the way its been for the past 15 years).

 

How will things turn out? Allahu aclam but I think that Xamar used to have tens of dominant powers. Today, those powers have narrowed down to only two. If Xamar (and by extension, Somalia) is ever to see peace again, one power must come out victorious. Sad as it sounds, I look at this ceasefire as a temporary one (a chance to reload and get more reinforcements, like the last time after the conflict near ex-Jalle Siyaad area). I pray that I'm wrong in this depressing view.

[General Duke]

^^^ Good points indeed. On the point of difference I belive there is some major differences between the traditional clan warlords such as Qaynyere, Sudi and Co and the Courts. For one the courts are made up of different clan groupings [dominated by one] if their supporters are to be belived they have several comanders who hail from outside Banadir. The argument here is that they are ideoloical driven but to weak for now to rid themselves of the Inda Cade's and other gangsters in their midst.

 

They do like order and security and are against many vices which the warlord militias flaunt.

 

The other difference is that they have a long term vison or goal which is to bring about an Islamic state. What goal to the warlords have?

 

The question is can they transform themselves quickly enough to take advantage of the weakness of the Mogadisu strongmen?

[NASSIR]

Originally posted by General Duke:

^^^ MMA you are right to a certain extent howevr the main players are all from the same clan, Mohamed Dheere +Raage Vs Cadani + Shiekh Sharif.

 

...

The same sub clan. That is crazy

[Zaylici]

Routine disinformation is common in such period;one therefore, should take extra precausions in mixing clan propaganda with facts on the groud; facts are stubborn, as some say, soon it would resist all denials.

Advantages of wadaadada

Courts, unlike worlords, anticipate another better world; Jannah, this fanaticims have shown us time and again its instrumentality in victory; however, this only happens when it is combined with clan loyality; for instance; when Itihaad fighters confronted with SSDF in Puntland, they lost because they were not assisted by a clan, if they were assisted by a clan; they would have had the advantage of the clan and religion. a lethal mix. SSDF therefore, defeated them because it had clan advantage;

 

 

Erudite scholars tell us that particularism always defeats universalism; meaning tribalism, in Somalia, would defeat Somali nationalims: whoever fights for a clan would win against whoever fights for common Somali cause. Exposition of the reasons for this proposition is unnecessay a this stage, for you can use your own reflection to confirm them.

with this in mind, Courts would win only if they continue to enjoy their religious and moral superiority and at the sametime enjoy a clan support that is greater than the one enjoyed by their opponents. Put it simply; if Northern Mogadisho clans view this as southern naked aggression, the balance of power would be on the side of the worlords unless southern MOgadisho unites in similar fashion, if latter is the case, then it would be all out war that would have its own dynamics.

 

Advantages of Worlords

 

The dynamics could change in favor of northern mogadisho, if outsiders who harbor anxiety about the rise of Islamic fundemntalism join the fray; this scenerio would be a blow to south Mogadisho clans and courts.

 

if however, outsiders realize the unpopularity of worlords, and decide to support Baydhabo, which has more popularity, and more legitimacy, then outsiders would have another means to deal with the rise of power in Mogadisho. however, this scenerio may be construed as Clan conflict, hence once again Mogadisho would enjoy a mix of clan and religion; it is not known whether such mix would save them from Sunni fate in Iraq.

 

Nothing is more sexier and yet harmful than a compitition of men for power and wealth; we are witnessing an epitome of such premative prennial struggle in our own time.

[NASSIR]

Good analysis Zaylici. I enjoyed your input