The Risk of State Collapse Looms in Somalia

[Deeq A.]

The Somali Women’s Association in Mogadishu has urged President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to abandon his “loo joojin mayo” (“staying the course”) policy.

Mogadishu (PP Editorial) — Now that the political crisis into which the incumbent Federal Government of Somalia plunged the country two years before the end of its tenure is escalating, the need for a caretaker government is becoming politically inevitable.  The predecessor federal administration proposed a one-person, one-vote election in 2020, a year before the end of its tenure, but in the absence of consensus, its mandate was extended by the bicameral legislature in 2021. The opposition challenged the decision by forming Badbaado Qaran (“Salvation Force”), comprising militias in Mogadishu.

The split between former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and his Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble averted conflict in 2021. The federal government remained in power for another year, albeit with reduced executive powers. In 2024, the possibility of averting a political crisis diminished under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who appointed a pliant Prime Minister now waging war against Jubaland State, the federal member state he represents as an MP.

Disagreement over the electoral model has reduced the legitimacy of the incumbent federal government. In the absence of countervailing political forces, the risk of politically motivated conflict precipitating state collapse cannot be discounted. Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a former president, Hassan Ali Khaire, a former prime minister, and Abdirahman Abdishakur, a former presidential candidate, have called on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to respect the federal provisional constitution and not seek term extension through a manufactured political crisis.

Somalia, a country dependent on peacekeeping forces and donors’ generosity, has historically resolved political disagreements through consensus. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud seems to misunderstand the limited political legitimacy he enjoys as a leader, resorting to actions that undermine state-building efforts. The Somali Women’s Association in Mogadishu has urged President Mohamud to abandon his “loo joojin mayo” (“staying the course”) policy. This timely advice is worth heeding.

© Puntland Post, 2024

The post The Risk of State Collapse Looms in Somalia appeared first on Puntland Post.