Why Kenya Views the Jubaland State Election as a Key Milestone

[Deeq A.]

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud President Mohamud, describes his rivals as “spoilers” and at one point appealed to the British government to “act decisively against spoilers.”

Kismaayo (PP Commentary) — In 2011, Kenya invaded Gedo region of Somalia after Al-Shabaab launched attacks inside Kenya. The kidnapping of a British woman near  Lamu, where her husband was killed, left no one in doubt about Al-Shabaab’s capabilities. The British woman was transported to the countryside of Adado. She was released after her family paid a ransom, from which Al-Shabaab received a cut.

In 2012, the Kenyan Navy and local forces, then known as the Ras Kamboni Brigade, captured Kismayo, a port city, and ended Al-Shabaab’s rule there. The liberation of Kismayo took place in September 2012, two weeks after Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected president. President Mohamud initially supported a six-region administration declared in Baidoa. The administration claimed that Kismayo was under its jurisdiction.

In 2024, defying Jubaland’s electoral law, President Mohamud suggested a one-year term extension for the Jubaland administration led by President Ahmed Mohamed Islam. Jubaland President left the National Consultative Council over the proposal by President Mohamud, who now describes his rivals as “spoilers” and at one point appealed to the British government to “act decisively against spoilers.”

Since 2013, Jubaland has made institutional progress despite parts of the region remaining under Al-Shabaab, whose capability to attack Kenya from Somalia has been degraded.

Jubaland President Ahmed M. Islam refused to allow Villa Somalia to interfere with the Jubaland electoral process.

Villa Somalia stumbles from one policy disaster to another, resulting in increased threats to Somalia’s national security. The Federal Government maintains no ties with Jubaland and Puntland, and it designated secession as a national threat after the Somaliland Administration signed a maritime Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia in January 2024.

President Mohamud paid an unplanned visit to Kenya to seek the assistance of his Kenyan counterpart, President William Ruto. President Ruto sent a delegation to Mogadishu and Kismayo, but their mediation efforts failed due to irreconcilable differences between Villa Somalia and Jubaland over the proposed term extension by President Mohamud, who prioritises his personal political goals over national interests and a consensus-based approach to institution-building in Somalia. Kenya expressed its support for Jubaland’s electoral process.

In the absence of an inclusive Somali national army capable of protecting borders, Kenya views political stability in Jubaland as a core element of its national security strategy. Somalis hold favourable views of Kenyan peacekeepers within ATMIS and do not view Kenya as a threat to Somalia’s sovereignty. Kenya hosts Somali refugees and remains a preferred destination for Somalis to invest, as evidenced by Eastleigh (sometimes known as ‘Little Mogadishu’).

In 2024, the Federal Government of Somalia appears to be on a diplomatic collision course with Kenya, similar to 2019, when Mogadishu imposed an aviation embargo on Kismayo over the Jubaland elections. President Mohamud should avoid repeating the mistakes of his predecessor.

© Puntland Post, 2024

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