Kenya seeks to show its influence on the politics of Somalia

[Deeq A.]

Hamze Barre with the Kenyan delegation in Mogadishu earlier this week.

Mogadishu (PP Commentary) — When the President of Jubaland State, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, left Mogadishu after disagreements over the electoral model for 2026, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud flew to Nairobi for a summit with William Ruto, the President of Kenya. The one-sided agenda centred on a request to Kenya to apply pressure on the Jubaland President to return to Mogadishu and delay Jubaland’s presidential elections.

Kenya responded to the request from Villa Somalia by sending a three-member delegation composed of distant relatives of the Jubaland President to Kismaayo. The Jubaland President cited an electoral precedent, noting that Jubaland held its elections in 2012 and 2019. Villa Somalia opposed both elections but failed to undermine the Jubaland electoral process.

Earlier this year, the Jubaland President agreed to the suggested electoral model and amendments to the provisional federal constitution. There was a common understanding among members of the National Consultative Council that one person, one vote elections would take place in Somalia without the participation of Puntland State of Somalia and the Somaliland administration.

The rift between the Jubaland President and Villa Somalia has rendered Prime Minister Hamze Barre a lame duck. His former supporters in Mogadishu are now calling for his resignation, accusing him of alienating both Jubaland and Puntland. Hamze had planned to visit Kismaayo in defiance of the Jubaland administration. Villa Somalia is  eager to see Hamze assume a role similar to that of Barre Hirale, a former warlord who ignited conflict in Kismaayo in 2013 with support from the Federal Government of Somalia.

Kenya selected envoys from its Northeastern region to persuade the Jubaland President to endorse the political programme of the current Somalia President, who has usurped the powers of the Prime Minister he had selected for long-standing loyalty dating back to 2004. Ironically, Hamze was defending Jubaland’s electoral independence in 2019 when he was Chairman of the Jubaland Electoral Commission. When President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected in 2022, the Jubaland President submitted Hamze’s name as Jubaland’s candidate for the premiership.

The mediation offered by Kenya to defuse the tension between Jubaland and Villa Somalia reflects the Machiavellian nature of the Damuljadiid Islamist clique, who use religion as a means to attain political goals that undermine the sovereignty of Somalia. The only acceptable path to political stability in Somalia is for Prime Minister Hamze Barre to resign.

© Puntland Post, 2024

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