Oil Nationalism

[BiLaaL]

Given our country's reputation as one of the last remaining under-explored countries for oil, one which holds significant reserves; and given the recent debate over the shady deals entered into with foreign oil firms - perhaps our country could use a dose of 'resource nationalism'. No, i'm not kidding.

 

Oil or resource nationalism in general, one not seen since the last oil boom of the 1970's is said to have made a comeback. From Hugo Chaze's Venezuela to Ahmedinijad's Iran, countries are side-lining large Western firms in favor of local, state-run ones. The reason behind this new wave of resource nationalism is quite simple: higher energy prices mean governments could reap better rewards by limiting foreign involvement in their oil fields / production.

 

Granted, Somalia has no oil fields in operation let alone in a position to dictate how its reserves are managed. Having said that, however, the current trend of resource nationalism coupled with the squeeze being felt by foreign oil companies means that we can cut a good deal in terms of initial infrastructure development, if we play our cards right.

 

Fiscal policies aside for a moment - could resource nationalism catch on in Somalia? When will the Somali public raise their voice against the reckless policies of Geedi? Its odd, but after all these years of disunity, could resource nationalism have the potential to finally break the mold of clan rivalries? Wouldn't it be in the best interest of all Somalis to unite as one in defense of our common resources?

 

 

Resource Nationalism On the Rise as Russia Mulls Changes to Sakhalin Deals, Subsoil Legislation

 

Western firms feel a pinch from oil nationalism

 

Risks of rising oil nationalism

[ElPunto]

^I'm not sure we will be able to acheive oil 'nationalism' if we have no process for for the sharing of revenues within regions, between regions and with the central government. What you will get is oil clannism or resource clannism unless fair agreements can be worked out that have responsibilities attached to them.

[Jacaylbaro]

Somalia need to form the state first then start the oil nationalism or wateva it is called. There is no such oil nationalism where there is no state, working/effective government and nothing.

 

We have the best example when we look at the last develepments between the tfg and buglad ,,,,,

[ANWAR]

Originally posted by Jacaylbaro:

We have the best example when we look at the last develepments between the tfg and buglad ,,,,,

I SEE YOU HATE PUNTLAND LOOOOL

[BiLaaL]

Originally posted by ThePoint:

^I'm not sure we will be able to acheive oil 'nationalism' if we have no process for for the sharing of revenues within regions, between regions and with the central government. What you will get is oil clannism or resource clannism unless fair agreements can be worked out that have responsibilities attached to them.

I'm glad that you commenced your reply by referring to regions rather than clans. Equitable revenue sharing can only be accomplished by shifting emphasis from clan-based distribution to a region-based one. Not only would this eliminate the 'resource clannism' that you speak of but it would also ensure that regions lacking oil fields of their own would also benefit.

 

Resource nationalism thrives on a nationwide emotion - every Somali citizen needs to feel ownership before it can truly take hold. Bringing clans into the management of oil revenue would frustrate this ownership. It would also present foreign oil firms with the opportunity to do deals with and manipulate the different tribal stakeholders.

 

Rather, an inter-regional Council with the Prime Minister as its head would be best suited to carry out the task of allocating oil revenue between regions. Inevitable differences (e.g. geographic location, population size etc) between regions would be taken into account with regards to allocation size. Put simply, oil revenue sharing (considering Somali has oil) is of national significance and as such would require cooperative action between National and state/regional governments. I doubt that many Somalis would have a problem with such a framework.

 

No single region/state in Somalia is the exclusive territory of any clan. This reality is acknowledged by most Somalis. As such, we should be weary of adopting the views of an ever shrinking minority. This minority has already been given too much credit. We've reached a stage where no facet of life can be examined without throwing the issue of clans into the mix.

 

In my view, tribalism is tantamount to a shadow minister who doesn't cast a shadow. It plays no significant role in the daily life of most Somalis. In fact, most Somalis abhor the favoritism it projects sometimes even within the same clan. More and more Somalis are starting to understand that tribalism is nothing more than a mosaic of concealed misfortune.

 

As overwhelming as tribalism may seem in our society, what out people lack most is due process. An alternative policy with clear guidelines. Its the absence of these guidelines that forces the majority to be dicated to by the minority. So far, we haven't produced men with the intestinal fortitude to quash the idea of tribalism playing a role in the fiscal policies of our country.

 

Oil exploration, free of foreign exploitation, carries great potentional for post-conflict Somalia. This potential economic saviour should never be allowed to fall into the hands of clannists.

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by BiLaaL:

I'm glad that you commenced your reply by referring to regions rather than clans. Equitable revenue sharing can only be accomplished by shifting emphasis from clan-based distribution to a region-based one. Not only would this eliminate the 'resource clannism' that you speak of but it would also ensure that regions lacking oil fields of their own would also benefit.

But for the forseeable future, regions in Somalia will be clan based and I don't think that is a bad thing so long as there is a structure and processes and procedures that the region governs itself with.

 

I think the vast majority of Somalis are ready to share natural resources - the devil will be in the details.

 

Resource nationalism thrives on a nationwide emotion - every Somali citizen needs to feel ownership before it can truly take hold. Bringing clans into the management of oil revenue would frustrate this ownership. It would also present foreign oil firms with the opportunity to do deals with and manipulate the different tribal stakeholders.

This is the problem - there is little sense of nationalism in Somalia - there is a much bigger sense of clannism. And to overcome will require decades. As to deals - ultamitaly they should be struck with consensus from the particular region and the central government where the central govt represents the non regional constituents.

 

Rather, an inter-regional Council with the Prime Minister as its head would be best suited to carry out the task of allocating oil revenue between regions. Inevitable differences (e.g. geographic location, population size etc) between regions would be taken into account with regards to allocation size. Put simply, oil revenue sharing (considering Somali has oil) is of national significance and as such would require cooperative action between National and state/regional governments. I doubt that many Somalis would have a problem with such a framework.

I think that is a decent plan. I would add 2 caveats.

 

1- The region that has the oil or the natural resources must be allowed to retain a greater percentage of the moneys than a non-producing region. You shouldn't completely equalize wealth. ie. you must let some regions be richer than others within limits of course - otherwise you're looking at adding to the resentments and divisions we already have and it's not quite fair either.

 

2- The money given to other regions must be spent well - there should be checks and balances. Else why waste on non producing regions if can waste where produced.

 

No single region/state in Somalia is the exclusive territory of any clan. This reality is acknowledged by most Somalis. As such, we should be weary of adopting the views of an ever shrinking minority. This minority has already been given too much credit. We've reached a stage where no facet of life can be examined without throwing the issue of clans into the mix.

You have degaans and resources found there will be looked at in a proprietary way. A consensus process and accountability is needed to ensure that this parochial outlook diminshes over time.

 

 

As overwhelming as tribalism may seem in our society, what out people lack most is due process. An alternative policy with clear guidelines. Its the absence of these guidelines that forces the majority to be dicated to by the minority. So far, we haven't produced men with the intestinal fortitude to quash the idea of tribalism playing a role in the fiscal policies of our country.

You're right about the prescription but I think it will be a long slow road for the demise of clannism in Somalia.

[BiLaaL]

Originally posted by ThePoint:

I think the vast majority of Somalis are ready to share natural resources - the devil will be in the details.

You’re quite right. Negotiations seldom run smoothly and are always prone to dispute among parties. Having said that, however, the two caveats you presented coupled with elements of accountability and transparency would come in handy in addressing some of the fears.

 

Extremely difficult points of contention can usually be overcome by either inserting a sunset clause in the final document or by fostering a sense of competition among the stakeholders. To that end, I would reward oil producing regions that reach / maintain certain bench marks – e.g. efficiency in production, inventiveness etc. These two factors of either rewarding excellence or reassuring parties by written guarantee of a review after a certain period of time – should again allay fears.

 

You're right about the prescription but I think it will be a long slow road for the demise of clannism in Somalia.

This is where we differ. Tribalism is hardly the titanic its made out to be. The majority of Somalis have recognised the flaws inherent in tribalism and are ready to divorce it from their collective consciousness. The horrors of the last seventeen years have given rise to a population with a deep desire for change – all they require is a sincere, non-partisan, and pragmatic group of individuals armed with an alternative to tribalism. The rapid rise and success of the ICU had more to do with this sentiment than anything else. Tribalism is now largely confined to aiding immediate relatives (kin relationships), as it was initially intended.

 

I think we should distinguish between the two forms of tribalism – the first is extreme, in that it often leads to direct confrontation between clans; and the milder, more familiar second form – this one is essentially political in nature. I would argue that the latter best defines the sort of tribalism present in Somalia today. This form of tribalism (political) is common place right around the globe. It is perfectly normal. It revolves around valid questions such as structure of government, form of constitution and its indivisibility, division of resources etc.

 

As rightly highlighted by the ICU, the Free Parliament and the majority of clans; the current conflict revolves around political questions not tribal ones. This is precisely the reason why the current reconciliation conference has failed.

 

I refuse to accept the notion that Somalia is in the grip of a tribal conflict. The only groups advocating that idea are foreign powers and their agents in the TFG, both of whose interests lie in dividing Somalis. In a nutshell, this self-perpetuating myth has been planted by foreigners.

 

The decline of tribalism has been gradual for the last seventeen years and has arrived. It has been erased from the consciousness of most Somalis - all that is left is for the right political conditions to materialise.