Saadasha Doorashada Madaxtooyada ee 2024 HORDHAC

[Deeq A.]

Saadasha Doorashada Madaxtooyada ee 2024
HORDHAC
Maqaalkan kooban waxaan kusoo bandhigayaa, odoros kooban oo aan ku sameeyay doorashada madaxweynaha ee maalin dhaw foodda innagu soo haysa. Seeska ama tixraaca ay saadaashani ku dhisan tahay, waa natiijadii doorashadii madaxtooyada ee 2017kii ee ka muuqata shaxda hoose, taas oo u qoran si heer gobol ah.
Doorashadii Madaxtooyada ee 2017kii
Region Registered
Voters in
2017 Total Votes Turn Over Ratio UCID – Votes Kulmiye – Votes Wadani – Votes
Awdal 102,571 80,030 78% 617 1% 38,454 48% 40,959 51%
Maroodijex 249,229 213,256 86% 19,795 9% 130,334 61% 63,127 30%
Saaxil 60,817 48,144 79% 563 1% 31,182 65% 16,399 34%
Togdheer 147,440 118,136 80% 1,233 1% 57,499 49% 59,404 50%
Sool 63,698 39,516 62% 383 1% 21,707 55% 17,426 44%
Sanaag 80,334 56,059 70% 550 1% 26,732 48% 28,777 51%
Totol 704,089 555,141 79% 23,141 4% 305,908 55% 226,092 41%
Shaxdan ayaa soo bandhigaysa tirada guud ee doorashada loo diwaan geliyay oo dhammayd 704,089 cod bixiye, tirada codka dhiibatay 555,141 cod iyo saamigeeda boqolay oo heer gobol ah. Sidoo kale waxay soo bandhigaysaa natiijada cod bixinta ee ay ka heleen saddexda xisbi oo heer gobol iyo wadar ba leh taas oo Kulmiye guushu ku raacday 79,816 cod.
HABRAACA SAADAASHA
Hab raaca saadaashan ayaa ku salaysan ama ay sees u tahay diiwan gelinta codbixiyaayasha 2024 iyo natiijadii doorashadii 2017kii, taas oo aan ka soo qaatay, heerka cod bixiyayaasha “turn-over rate” ee gobollada kala duwan iyo sidoo kale doorashada/natiijaada gobollada qaarkood, walow ay ka danbeeysay doorashadii 2021kii, haddana maadaama ay ahayd doorasho wakiillo iyo deegaan, si aan saamaynta xildhibaannadu aanay u majaro habaabin natiijada ayaa loo qaatay doorashadii madaxweynaha ee 2017.
Saadashan ayaa soo bandhigaysaa saddex sawir (Scenarios) oo suura-gal ah kuna salaysan xaaladaha siyaasiga ah ee is beddelay intii u dhaxaysay labada doorasho iyo sidoo kale heeshiisyada iyo dhacdooyinka siyaasadeed ee intaa dhacay. Saddexdan sawir baa ah aragtida dayro, niyad sami iyo dhexdhexaad (Pessimistic, Optimistic and Average view).
Sool: Codadka Sool ee odoroskani isticmaayaa waa degmada Caynabo oo qudha.
Sawirka Kowaad (Pessimistic view)
Tiyoo la isticmaalayo, diiwaan gelinta cod-bixiyayaasha ee 2024 iyo natiijada doorashadii madaxweynaha ee 2017kii, sawirkan waxaa ku salaysa yahay qodobada hoos ku xusan:
1. In go’aannadii shirkii Ceel-Afweyn iyo heshiiska isbahaysigu keeno saamayn ah in beesha East Burco Clan codkeedu si isleeg (50% and 50%) ugu qaybsamo labada murashax ee Cirro iyo Muuse.
2. In codka West Burco Clan (Gaar ahaan Ciidagale) ee doorashadii hore saddexda xisbi u qaybsamay uu soo laabto kalabadh ka mid ahi, marka la eego qodobbo ay ka mid yahiin, sida hadda Faysal u hawl gabmay, sida ollolaha abtinnimo ee Muuse doorkii hore u shaqaysay gebagabo u tahay iyo doorka hawlgal ee Mayor Mooge iyo hogaanka reerku.
3. In aan Awdal wax weyn iska beddelin oo ay kala helayaan, Waddani 55% iyo Kulmiye 44%. Halka ay doorkii hore ahayd 51% iyo 48% Waddani iyo Kulmiye kala ahaa.
4. In codadka reeraha musharaxiinta iyo gobollada Saaxil iyo Maroodijeex in aan waxba iska beddelin saami ahaan.
Region Registered Voters 2024 Turn Over Rate of 2017 Anticipated Voters Ucid Kulmiye Wadani
Awdal 181,801 78% 141,848 1,418 62,413 78,017
Maroodijex 497,734 86% 425,893 21,295 247,018 157,580
Saaxil 92,620 79% 73,320 733 43,992 28,595
Togdheer 236,279 80% 189,318 1,893 45,436 141,989
Sool / Caynabo 35,565 62% 22,063 221 8,825 13,238
Sanaag 119,648 70% 83,493 835 20,038 62,620
Totol 1,163,647 80% 935,935 26,395 427,723 482,038
Percentage of votes per Party/Candidate 3% 46% 52%
Sadaashan natiijadeedu waa in Waddani / Cirro ku guulaysan doono 54,315 cod.
Sawirka Labaad (Average View)
Qaar ka mid ah qodobbada ay ku dhisan tahay saadaasha hore dad badan ayaa u arka in ay sidaas ka duwanaan doonto, markaa tan labaad waxa ay beddelaysaa qaar ka mid ah aragtiyaas, gaar ahaan codka Awdal iyo East Burco Clan. Hase yeeshee sawirkan labaad waxa keliya oo uu beddelay, saadaasha codka East Burco Clan oo uu kasoo qaadayo in 60% Cirro helo, Kulmiye-na 40%, taas oo lagu dabbaqay gobollada Sanaag, Sool iyo Togdheer. Waxa xusid mudan in beddelkan ay ka maqan yahiin codadka beesha East Burco Clan ee Saaxil iyo gobollada kale ee dalka.
Region Registered Voters 2024 Turn Over Rate of 2017 Anticipated Voters Ucid Kulmiye Wadani
Awdal 181,801 78% 141,848 1,094 56,739 83,691
Maroodijex 497,734 86% 425,893 21,295 247,018 157,580
Saaxil 92,620 79% 73,320 733 43,992 28,595
Togdheer 236,279 80% 189,318 1,893 37,864 149,561
Sool / Caynabo 35,565 62% 22,063 221 6,619 15,224
Sanaag 119,648 70% 83,493 835 15,864 66,795
Totol 1,163,647 80% 935,935 26,070 408,095 501,445
Percentage of votes per Party/Candidate 3% 44% 54%
Sadaashan natiijadeedu waa in Wadani / Cirro ku guulaysan doono 93,350 cod.
Sawirka Saddexaad (Optimistic View)
Sawirkan saddexaad oo ah mid ku dhisan aragtida maasha Allah-da ama optimistic-ga ah, ayaa waxa dooddiisa sal u ah dhawr qodob oo ay ka mid yahiin:
1. In Muuse Biixi ay dad badan oo markii hore reernimo ku dhisay gaar ahaan Gabiley Clan ay isa-seegaan imikana Cirro dhisayaan, ha u bataan indheer garad, siyaasiyiin iyo ganacsato, dadkaasina cod kasoo goyn doonaan. Sidoo kalena ay jiraan in badan oo niyad jabsan, heelanaantooduna hoos u dhacday oo aanay aad u codayn doonin.
2. In dad badan saluugsan yihiin mamulka Muuse Biixi iyo xaaladda dalku marayo, sidoo kalena aragtidooda mucaaridku is beddeshay ay ka codayn doonaan.
3. In Gobolka Saaxil isbeddel weyn ka jiro oo uu mucaaridku ku xoogaystay.
4. Wax iska beddelka isdiiwaan gelinta oo xagga korodhku u badan yahay mucaaradka.
5. In Awdal ay u badatay mucaarid, badi siyaasiyiintii, dhaqankii iyo aqoonyahankii gobolkuba dhisayaan mucaaradka.
6. Xaaladda gobolka Sool iyo dhacdooyinka ku gedaaman.
Tii oo qodobadaas la tix gelinayo saadashani waxa ay ku dhisan tahay isbeddalladan hoose:
– Awdal in Mucaaridku ka helo 62%, Muusena ka helo 37%.
– In Maroodijeex iyo Saaxil ay ka wareegeen Muxaafidka tiro dad ah oo u dhiganta 7%. – In East Burco Clan 60% u coday doonto Cirro, 40% u codayn doonto Muuse.
Region Registered Voters 2024 Turn Over Rate of 2017 Anticipated Voters Ucid Kulmiye Wadani
Awdal 181,801 78% 141,848 1,094 52,484 87,946
Maroodijex 497,734 86% 425,893 17,036 212,946 195,911
Saaxil 92,620 79% 73,320 733 36,660 35,927
Togdheer 236,279 80% 189,318 1,893 35,970 151,454
Sool / Caynabo 35,565 62% 22,063 221 6,619 15,224
Sanaag 119,648 70% 83,493 835 15,864 66,795
Totol 1,163,647 80% 935,935 21,811 360,543 553,256
Percentage of votes per Party/Candidate 2% 39% 59%
Sadaashan natiijadeedu waa in Wadani / Cirro ku guulaysan doono 192,713 cod.
TALOOYIN
Si loo sugo hanashada guusha guud ahaan iyo tan ay soo bandhigayso saadaashuba waxaa muhiim ah in mucaaridku sii xoojiyo hawl galkooda doorashada, hannaanka maamulidda cod bixinta, xidhiidhka iyo heeganka guddiyada taageero. Si gaar ah na waxa aan u soo jeedinayaa:
1. Deegaanka codka mucaaridku ku xooggan yahay (Waddani power houses) in aad looga shaqeeyo fududaynta cod bixinta iyo sidii dadka ugu badani u codayn lahaa.
2. In si weyn looga hawl galo gobolka Awdal, guddiyo xirfad leh iyo dhaqaale ba lagu xoojiyo, maalmaha kooban ee ka hadhay doorashada.
3. In deeganada East Burco Clan aad loogu baxo oo loo wacyi geliyo gaar ahaan guddiyada dhaqanka ee East Burco Clan, xildhibaannada, Kaah iyo siyaasiyiinta kale ee taageersan is beddelka oo heer deegaan hoose looga hawl galo.
4. Horseed/Arabka: in si dhaw loola socdo loona xoojiyo dedaallada ku aaddan Arabka, lagana taxaddiro dedaallada Kulmiye ee aadka ugu aaddan.
5. In la xoojiyo oo la tageero guddiyada iyo siyaasiyiinta ka shaqaynaya deegaaada Muuse Biixi ku xooggan yahay, dhaqaale iyo dad ba lagu taageero si loo sugo in aanay noqon taageerayaasha la hantay.
Alla Mahad Leh!
Roble Abdi Muse.

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