Somalia under mandated "Bide" occupation, the worse sort

[Illyria]

There is the propaganda to sustain and maintain the status quo, seek funding for [the] project, but then there is the reality on the ground.

The reality:

4. The Joint Technical Assessment (JTA) report of March 2024 and the Joint
Strategic Assessment (JSA) of May 2024 underscored the point that Al-Shabaab and
other armed groups cannot be defeated by military means alone. As ATMIS
implements its drawdown, Al-Shabaab continues to increase its numbers and maintain
its capabilities.

And the falsehood:

15. Since 2022, the FGS has developed a new strategy to counter Al-Shabab
militarily, financially, and ideologically while preparing to take over security
responsibilities from ATMIS. This has translated to the recovery of over 65,000
Square Kms and a marked improvement of the security in Mogadishu. To this end,
the FGS recognises that ATMIS and international partners support have contributed
to gains made. On the other hand, the SSF continue to increasingly demonstrate ability
to maintain security responsibilities in handed over FOBs and critical facilities.
However, this situation may significantly deteriorate with the planned exit of ATMIS
on 31 December 2024. ATMIS’ exit will stretch SSF thin on the ground resulting to
minimal manning strength, a situation that should be addressed by a follow -on
mission with the support of partners.

 

-------------------------------------

VII. POLITICAL DIRECTIVE (Mandated "Bide" occupation with no end in sight)
21. Political Objective. The Mission will support FGS in fulfilling its security and
stabilisation objectives and contribute to the following:
(a) Assist in strengthening State authority, as well as support national
authorities in the protection of civilians, the reinforcement of security and public
order through the implementation of appropriate measures and in line with human
rights and international humanitarian law principles and standards; and contribute to
the FGS stabilisation efforts.

VIII. STRATEGIC END STATE (Sustain and maintain)
22. The security conditions are re-established for Somalia to exercise full authority
over its territory and assume responsibilities for the protection of the population,
properties and livelihoods and address national and regional security concerns, and
allow the FGS to continue to implement its overall stabilization and development
programmes.

X. EXIT STRATEGY (No exit strategy, but an extension to 2029)
25. The SSDP establishes a comprehensive plan for Somalia’s security transition
and stabilization with the overarching goal for Somalia to assume full ownership and
responsibility for its security.
26. The Mission’s exit strategy is, therefore, linked to the successful
implementation of the SSDP and achievement of the Mission’s benchmarks, focusing
on enhancing the capacity of the SSF to maintain a sustainable security environment
in the country. The performance of the Mission and its exit strategy will, therefore,
be based on progressive steps in SSF capacity to take over full responsibility for
security in Somalia.

 

SC_2024_597-EN.pdf

[Illyria]

Occupying  forces from Kismayo to Baydhaba to Beledweyn to Dhuusamareeb:

 

 

XIII. MISSION COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE
31. Strength: The authorized strength of the Mission is up to 11,911 personnel, comprising of 85 civilians, 11,146 military and 680 police personnel, deployed in 4 Sectors with 14 Main Operating Bases (MOBs) and 9 Tactical Operating Bases(TOBs).

32. Sectors: Sector I: Mogadishu; Sector II: Kismayo; Sector III: Baidoa; Sector IV:Jowhar.

33. Main and Tactical Operating Bases (MOBs/TOBs) layout per Sector are as follows:

Sector I: MOB 1 (Mogadishu FHQ, Mogadishu (Sector HQ); MOB 2
(Mogadishu Aden Adde International Airport, Mogadishu Seaport); MOB 3
(Baledogle Airfield); MOB 4 (Barawe Airport); TOB 1 (Aljazeera II); TOB 2
(Aljazeera III); TOB 3 (Barawe Seaport); TOB 4 (Arbiska).

Sector II: MOB 5 (Kismayo: Sector HQ, Kismayo New Airport); MOB 6
(Kismayo Seaport). MOB 7 (Garbaharey); TOB 5 (Baardheere).

Sector III: MOB 8 (Baidoa: Sector HQ, ; Baidoa Airport); MOB 9 (Xudur); TOB
6 (Waajid); TOB 7 (Berdale); TOB 8 (Dinsoor)

Sector IV: MOB 10 (Jowhar: Sector HQ; Jowhar Airport); MOB 11 (Mahaday);
MOB 12 (Beletweyne); MOB 13 (Dhusamareeb); MOB 14 (Bulo Burto); TOB
9 (Xawadleey)

34. The above disposition may be revised as per the prevailing security situation

 

[Illyria]

IV. OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION IN SOMALIA
AND RELATED ANALYSIS

A. Political Landscape
9. Since the African Union’s deployment of a mission in Somalia in 2007, the country has been engaged in state-building and peacebuilding efforts. Key initiatives include the constitutional review process, finalizing the implementation of the national security architecture, developing a unified democratic electoral model, and achieving political and social reconciliation to fully implement a federal system. Since the election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in May 2022, significant progress has been made in these critical areas, including the Somalia ’s accession to the East African Community, the lifting of the arms embargo, its election to the United Nations Security Council for the 2025–2026 term, and finalization of the debt relief.

10. Underpinning this progress has been the National Consultative Council (NCC), which since May 2022, has improved relations between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Federal Member States. Despite some challenges, the NCC has facilitated discussions aligned with the FGS’s 2022–2026 work programme, which prioritizes security, justice, reconciliation, economic self -sufficiency, social development, and international relations to protect Somalia’s sovereignty and unity. This inclusive process supports Somalia’s commitment to democratization, preparing for one-person, one-vote elections in 2026.

11. In recent years, with African Union support, successive FGS administrations have prioritized national issues and strengthened regional and international relations. Despite progress, challenges remain, including Puntland’s absence from regular NCC meetings and the unresolved dispute over the Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Member State of Somaliland and Ethiopia.

12. The FGS must engage with key stakeholders to resolve differences over national priorities, finalize the Constitution and prepare for universal elections in 2026. Continuous support from the AU and international partners is crucial to addressing these challenges. Therefore, the coming months will be pivotal for Somalia.

 

[Dhagax-Tuur]

Balkanize it.

[Illyria]

To the contrary, it is the inverse of [that] we should be thinking of. If that does not spurn you into action, and convulse your spleen, then I do not know what else would.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

5 hours ago, Dhagax-Tuur said:

Balkanize it.

best option

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

2 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

best option

This so-called 'best option' includes Awdal going on its own, not to forget the already gone Sool, parts of Togdheer and Sanaag. Mise Koonfurta kaliya moodaa sheekadaasi ka soconeyso.

[Che -Guevara]

10 hours ago, Dhagax-Tuur said:

Balkanize it.

The underlying problems will still be there.

[maakhiri1]

Believe me at current pace, they will be here in 2060

Somalis are not serious, very very bad leadership 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

9 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

This so-called 'best option' includes Awdal going on its own, not to forget the already gone Sool, parts of Togdheer and Sanaag. Mise Koonfurta kaliya moodaa sheekadaasi ka soconeyso.

Awdal and gabiley and hargeisa and the rest of Somaliland minus eastern sanaag and eastern sool, all seem to get along i dont think that will be an issue really, the amount of awdalites people  being on the side of SL is amazing. 

 

This is the president of SL in borama, Awdal

 As for the kuumbos in eastern sanaaag and eastern sool, we might find a way to demarcate the border so they can join Bugland or Somalia,  and we go our seperate ways

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

The underlying problems will still be there.

i agree but it is easier to manage the problems of Tribalism nepotism and bad governance will stil be there but it is easier to Manage. I mean till this day u have centralism Federalism and Seperatism all 3 are being entertained . Somalia has constitutional problems poverty problems and Secterian problems  and it is very difficult to manage and keep all the different sort of peoples happy,

 

[galbeedi]

There is no exit strategy. This mission is open ended.

If that is the case why this president is reshuffling  the chairs of the sinking ship. Ten years ago when they said the mission will end 2025 and despots from Uganda and Ethiopia will implement democracy, we the diaspora were shocked. Now this thing will reach 2030. 

This president must stop this fake election and go struaght to the " Teendhada Xalane" to select the next guy who might have some backbone.

[Illyria]

On 11/9/2024 at 9:46 AM, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

This so-called 'best option' includes Awdal going on its own, not to forget the already gone Sool, parts of Togdheer and Sanaag. Mise Koonfurta kaliya moodaa sheekadaasi ka soconeyso.

I know he does not read, but you could have shown him these lines just to watch him nibble, and chase his bushy tail till dawn.

• 11. In recent years, with African Union support, successive FGS administrations have prioritized national issues and strengthened regional and international relations. Despite progress, challenges remain, including Puntland’s absence from regular NCC meetings and the unresolved dispute over the Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Member State of Somaliland and Ethiopia. 

 

5 hours ago, galbeedi said:

There is no exit strategy. This mission is open ended.

If that is the case why this president is reshuffling  the chairs of the sinking ship. Ten years ago when they said the mission will end 2025 and despots from Uganda and Ethiopia will implement democracy, we the diaspora were shocked. Now this thing will reach 2030. 

This president must stop this fake election and go struaght to the " Teendhada Xalane" to select the next guy who might have some backbone.

Trouble is they are all imposters, and we are keep hoping the next one will be better than the current one, but then is found to be far worse. We are f@cked, and are losing the country at a pace faster than any in modern history: shocking the speed with which bantuzation is aggressively going on along the rivers and fertile farming land.

[Tallaabo]

On 11/9/2024 at 6:16 PM, Che -Guevara said:

The underlying problems will still be there.

Every society on earth has some kind of problems, and we are no exception. However, the vast majority of our "problems" are a mixture of perceived problems, fake problems, and manufactured ones. All these fantom problems can be vanquished if we somehow find a group of strong, determined, honest, and principled leaders.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

On 11/11/2024 at 3:09 PM, Illyria said:

I know he does not read, but you could have shown him these lines just to watch him nibble, and chase his bushy tail till dawn.

• 11. In recent years, with African Union support, successive FGS administrations have prioritized national issues and strengthened regional and international relations. Despite progress, challenges remain, including Puntland’s absence from regular NCC meetings and the unresolved dispute over the Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Member State of Somaliland and Ethiopia. 

 

Trouble is they are all imposters, and we are keep hoping the next one will be better than the current one, but then is found to be far worse. We are f@cked, and are losing the country at a pace faster than any in modern history: shocking the speed with which bantuzation is aggressively going on along the rivers and fertile farming land.

federal member state Somaliland who wrote this garowe online

 

lol