The death of the TFG is imminent

[Xoogsade]

It is a matter of how long the US and Zenawi are willing to continue funding the massacre and displacement of Somalis in Muqdisho. The TFG never had any significant support among Somalis to begin with and their legitimacy comes from interested foreign powers. Remove the Xabashi Army and get the US to stop sponsoring the warlords and you will never hear a word about the TFG. They will exist in a far away town protected by Zenawi just as they were, rejected and despised by the their society at large. They won't survive a day in Muqdisho.

[Socod_badne]

There's little doubting that the TFG failed to live up to it's mandate. A mandate that stipulated reconcilation, des-escalation of tensions by bringing distrusting somalis closer together and laying the ground work for future national government. If anything the TFG has added to the sum total Somalia's problems.

 

From it's inception it's been plagued by incompetency, poor institutionalism/administration, corruption, lack of planning, lack of strategy, lack of direction. Essentially they were and still are clueless buffoons.

 

The highlights of it's 1st two years are as follows: globetrotting for pointless photo-ops, political procrastination, embarrassing brawl in the "parliament", more procrastination and pointless photo-ops, resignations and fractionalism, childish arguements over provisional capital, more political procrastination and globetrotting. And that's about it. I can't recall a single hospital, school or road they built. I don't think they even visited any of regions devastated by the worst mass flooding in 50 years. So the TFG has spectacularly failed to meet the tasks assisgned to them.

 

But I find no solace in the anti-TFG camp either. They have no identitfiable group to replace the TFG, no acceptable and realistic alternative to the TFG and no game plan on how to achieve this end. All I hear is the TFG is duds (of which they undoubtely are) and Ethiopia must be fought but deafening silence follows when you get beyond the emotional arguements put forth. There's glaring dearth of realistic and viable alternatives to the TFG.

 

If Ethiopia withraws today it will leave a political and security vacuum that will undoutedly be filled by warlords and marauding gunmen who's likely deeds are foreknown. I know this is not what the anti-TFG camp wants but that's what is going to happen.

 

Enough time has passed for emotions to subside and for people to rationally think through things.

 

I'm all ears for realistic alternatives to the TFG.

[xiinfaniin]

^^You may want to formulate your question again yaa Socodka! Perhaps you meant what are the necessary ingredients of bringing about genuine reconciliation so Somalis could have a modest but viable framework to govern themselves?

 

Ethiopia has exacerbated our conflict, and as long its there I don’t see any alternate course other than to fight them. The tfg has many choices to make, and in fact it’s the only entity that has the luxury to influence events on the ground. So far they have chosen to take a path of destruction. There are versions of achieving peace after Ethiopia’s withdrawal. The good Samatar published one such version not long ago.

[RedSea]

Nin ayaa maalin iga qosliyey oo yidhi. Maadamo ay Somalida mid kasta oo kamid ah uu rabo in uu Madaxwayne noqto, waa in aan jago kasta madaxwayne usamayno. Macnihii xagii wasiirka la odhan lahaa, waa in layidhaa 'madaxwaynaha reer miyiga' ka beeraha, ka diyaaradaha, ka ciidanaka loool...

 

Good solution wouldn't you say, since Somalis aren't complex thinkers to begin with?

[roobleh]

Good solution wouldn't you say, since Somalis aren't complex thinkers to begin with?

This reminds me why each guy who was elected as president in Somalia for the last sixteen years has not succeeded. We saw Ali Mahdi followed by Abdikasim Salat and now A. Yussuf. They all share one thing, short sightedness. I liked Abdikasim but he committed a political suicide once he talked like Qadafi. He could have pulled Somalia out of the mess if he could have strained his tongue and talked more about regional cooperation instead of war. He was a nice guy but he understimated Ethiopia and the western countries. He went straight to the trap when he started to act like Sudan. Nothing wrong to be a firm leader but not when it leads you to a political suicide.

 

Abdilahi Yussuf is the opposite. He knows what the regional powers and western countries want to hear. But, he is soft to nepotism. He does not act as the president of Somalia, but sees himself as an uncle and concerns more about the legacy of his clan than his legacy as president of Somalia.

[Socod_badne]

Badacas,

 

^On the contrary, Somalis are willing to let others lead. If you recall when the TFG was first formed a lot of Somalis of all stripes warmly welcomed the them. There's even a window of oppurtunity for A/yuusuf to recieve cheery welcome in his capital but of course being rank coward he dodged the chance.

 

What people need is assurances that the past malfeasances of previous central government will not repeat itself. It's issue of confidence building that can be addressed by instituting strict regimes of trasparancy, accountability and defering great deal of decision making to regions and districts.

 

Of course all this hinges on the one towering pre-condition: genuine reconcilation. There have been a dozen or so peace and "reconcillation" conferences but not a single one of them dealt with the thorny issues that alienated so many somalis against each other. Issues over past grievances that clans harbour against each other over just about everything are what fuels animosities and mistrust. It can't be over stressed that without some resolution over grievances ranging from land disputes to resource allocation to fear of autocratic central authority, sustained peace will forever illude Somalis. There should be genuine reconcillation conferance where all sensitive issues that have been hitherto avoided/delayed are put on the table and frankly discussed. People need a frame of reference of what's expected of them and what they can expect from others. It's asking too much for complete or even partial resolution of all outstanding differences but a genuine reconcillation will at least give people clear picture of grievances others hold against them, make their grievances known to others publically and how they can be resolved. Until genuine reconcillation conference is held I'm very pessimistic they'll be sustained peace and central government in Somalia.

 

 

Xiin,

 

All I'm asking is for you and other vocal anti-TFG folks to put forth concrete action plan on not only how Ethiopia should be fought off of Somalia but who should replace them.

 

I like to read Prof. Samatar's proposal but I don't know where to find it. If someone could post it here or the link to it, I'll appreciate it.

[xiinfaniin]

^^ You can find the article here..

 

I cant access it now! I dont recall the points he listed but it was a good read.

[XOG-ogaal]

socod badane here is the article

 

Introduction

 

The European Union (EU) and the United States have “urged” Somalia’s weak and illegitimate Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to negotiate with ‘moderate’ elements of the Islamic Courts and other stakeholders in order to form a broad-based and inclusive transitional authority which can advance reconciliation and secure peace. Such a push by the USA and EU is a tacit recognition that the TFG is illegitimate. The EU, unlike the United States which has supported Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia and which has endorsed the TFG, informed the latter that it was not prepared to release funds to help the country unless the latter committed itself to the creation of an inclusive government. In response to the EU’s demand several TFG ministers traveled to Brussels and reported to the EU that the regime was ready to organize the reconciliation conference in Mogadishu. Although all the details are not known it is clear from the regime’s proposal that it will invite 3000 delegates and manage the convention. The EU appears to have accepted the proposal and the ministers returned to Nairobi/Baidoa in a cheery mood. Since then, the TFG leader has declared that the invitees will be solely clan elders and representatives, and a sprinkling of others. These developments have generated some excitement among the TFG and donors, however, if the reconciliation project proceeds along the lines imagined by the TFG and the funders it is highly unlikely that the affair will bear fruitful peace and garner legitimacy for the regime. This dim prospect for reconciliation has further been destroyed by the indiscriminate mass murder of Somalis by the Ethiopian forces in and around Mogadishu. The Ethiopian offensive has completely shattered any possibility for the TFG gaining any acceptance from the Somali people. In other words, the TFG is dead but Somalis must still move forward and work towards genuine reconciliation.

 

Sterile Reconciliation

 

Such grim prognosis is now vindicated by the brutality visited on Mogadishu by Ethiopian troops with the consent of the West. Thoughtful observers who were familiar with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)-led Kenya-based Somali peace process in 2002/4 will recognize the un-mistakable congruence between the proposed congress, the formula put forward for selecting delegates, the attitude of the donors, and the modalities of the previous convention which produced the TFG. The original argument for holding the Kenya conference in the first place was the assumption that the Arta caucus, 1999-2000, that established the former Transitional National Government (TNG) was not inclusive as the warlords who were invited chose not to participate. IGAD and its international partners claimed then that the 2002/4 conference was inclusive since all the merchants of violence were present. Despite ample evidence to the contrary, the donors refused to heed the warning that they were courting disaster by endorsing a fraudulent process that excluded genuine representatives of the major stakeholders, such as civic groups and religious leaders.

 

The IGAD-led convention lasted slightly over two years and had a price tag of millions of dollars. Despite its cost in time, money, and the misery of people waiting for peace the conference produced neither peace nor reconciliation among Somalis. Instead, it sanctioned the warlords to concoct a deeply contradictory transitional charter which the international community endorsed as Somalia’s transitional constitution. A second consequence of the affair was the selection of the overwhelming majority of parliamentarians by warlords, who then chose a president and cabinet beholden to Ethiopia. The Kenyan host, IGAD, and the so-called international partners who managed and funded the conference hailed these developments as a major breakthrough. Unfortunately, before the ink dried on the documents of the agreement the warlords rekindled their conflicts and broke into two camps: those Ethiopia supported, led my Abdillahi Yusuf and Ali Geedi, moved to Jowhar, and their opponents returned to their Mogadishu base. Divisiveness among warlords and the incompetence of the key TFG leaders disabled the new regime from making any progress towards restoring peace and re-establishing public order. Consequently, Nairobi and Addis Ababa remain to be the hub of Somali politics as the former was the preferred destination of the TFG leaders as well as the headquarters of those elements of the international community involved in Somalia, while the latter city was transformed from the supplier of ammunition to some of the warlords to the virtual capital of the TFG .

 

The stalemate between the two warlord factions was foreseen by honest observers of the conference but IGAD managers and their international supporters refused to come to terms with the odious establishment they have fostered. Their contempt for the Somali people was so deep that they thought even the worst of dispensations – a warlord authority that is a lackey- was good enough for Somalis. Paradoxically, they were eager to get credit for “restoring peace” to Somalia although they were disinclined to do the heavy lifting necessary to ensure that the people’s wishes were respected. The creation of a dysfunctional regime incapable of doing anything right was due to not only mismanagement of the conference in which the mediators, Kenya and Ethiopia, were blatantly partisan, but also because the entire design of the gathering was anchored on a deeply flawed assumption. Key IGAD states such as Kenya accepted the scenario that clans are the natural political building blocs in Somalia, although Kenya has always shied away from politically Balkanizing its population into tribes. In contrast, Ethiopia, whose political structure has been constitutionally entrenched in tribal ethos since 1991, did everything possible to deepen the tribalization of Somali politics as that dovetailed with its own agenda. Further experts who advised the EU funders confounded the consequence of Somalia’s dictatorial rule with the causes of social fragmentation. That is, they felt that mismanagement of public affairs and the ruthless regime aided by corrupt elite competition was not the cause of recent social fragmentation but the neglect of genealogy as the principal base of governance. This understanding of Somalia’s political problem is identical to that of the warlords. Hence, the funders missed to appreciate that political genealogy is a product of dictatorship rather than Somali tradition and therefore they were unable to distinguish between the appearances of genealogy from its instrumentalist use by the elite who were eager to raid public resources and monopolize power.

 

Funders have not been keen to know other feasible explanation of Somalia’s catastrophe and they have been most skeptical about any Somali civic project. In essence, they do not want to be bothered with more complex analysis of the problem despite the fact that they have spent significant amount of money and energy on the matter. The author came across the prevailing attitude of the funders and their advisors. In one instance a group of European and American staff gathered for dinner in a fancy club in Eldoret and laid out what they considered to be the road map for the conference as well as the key items to be negotiated. The most critical decision of the funders was the conviction that the conference will produce a clan-based federal system. Two Somali scholars present were not even asked what they thought about the idea as the hosts assumed general agreement. Such a belief in federalism logically followed an earlier decision they made which dealt with the identity of the delegates invited to the conference. Although IGAD and the funders agreed that clan identity was the principal yardstick used to select delegates, this instrument was adjusted to reflect political loyalty to the dominant warlords. Consequently, delegates were ultimately selected by the warlords and the TNG from loyalists who ostensibly represented their clansmen. This meant that warlords and other members of the political elite used clan identity as a Trojan horse in selecting their supporters by creating the illusion of representational inclusivity of clans. Unfortunately, the so-called international democrats who funded the operation failed to recognize this contradiction and its social implications. Most Somalis who watched the process realized the farcical show the operation was, but hoped those entrusted with national responsibility will somehow miraculously give up their sectarian agenda and metamorphosize into conscientious leaders. This wishful thinking soon withered away and the reconciliation hoax fell apart.

 

In the midst of this stalemate, an unexpected Somali force came to the fore and changed the political landscape of the country for a while. The Union of Islamic Courts took control of most parts of Southern Somalia in 2006 until they were defeated by the American sanctioned invading Ethiopian forces in December. Despite their setback, the Courts left behind a legacy of legitimacy that is in sharp contrast to the illegitimacy of the Ethiopian backed TFG. Those members of the international community who either endorsed the Ethiopian invasion or supported the TFG have been scrambling to find a way to fabricate legitimacy for the regime and continue to down-play the Ethiopian occupation of Somalia. The United States and the European Union, despite their differential stances on the Ethiopian intervention, share the idea that a government of national unity can be an instrument for reconciliation and legitimacy for the TFG. Neither the EU nor the USA has articulated how a genuine reconciliation process could be possible in the presence of the Ethiopian occupation force and sectarian TFG militias and the carnage in Mogadishu.

 

The idea of reconciliation and a coalition government sounds appealing on its face value but a closer examination of the proposed process almost guarantees that it will replicate the enterprise that created the TFG which lacked popular support. First, the TFG reconciliation proposal is an ill-drafted document that is at best vague on many of the key issues. Second, the selection of delegates to the reconciliation conference will be done by the leadership of the TFG. Such a scheme will be a mirror image of what transpired in the Kenya-based conference where the warlords selected their clients to create the TFG. It also appears doubtful, just as was the case in Kenya, that any of the major donors is prepared to demand that non-TFG stakeholders freely choose their representatives to the reconciliation conference. Third, the TFG leader announced that delegates to the conference will number 3000 individuals. This unwieldy congregation is inspired by the TFG and donor idea that the Somali conflict is clan based and therefore the widest representation of all genealogical groups is necessary. Fourth, the TFG’s reconciliation document does not directly state what the nature of the Somali conflict is and who exactly the combatants are that need to be reconciled. It fleetingly refers to its military victory without specifying who it defeated and who might need to be brought into the reconciliation process. It also completely avoids the fact that the TFG needs to be reconciled with the majority of the Somali people who have consistently rejected it. Fifth, the TFG’s tribalist reconciliation strategy contradicts its claim that important lessons can be learned from reconciliation processes in Rwanda and South Africa. Ironically, Rwanda and South Africa have rejected the ethnic explanation of their conflict and the TFG does not seem to understand this. Finally, in addition to all of the above problems, the horrors on the population by the Ethiopian forces in the last few weeks have turned the entire proposition into a grotesque parody. It is no longer a viable option.

 

Genuine Route to Reconciliation

 

The only alternative that had the potential of bringing desperately needed legitimacy to the TFG institutions and peace to the country was the expulsion of Ethiopia’s illegal occupation of the country, and by bringing onboard genuine representative of the country’s most legitimate stakeholders: the Islamic courts and their followers, and members of civil society groups. Mogadishu’s “killing fields” has blown asunder the chances that the TFG will gain legitimacy through reconciliation. Ethiopia’s heinous assault on the Somali capital has literally killed the TFG. Despite the demise of the TFG Somalis must come together and reconcile to restore their dignity and independence. Such a gathering must be held soon and should involve 30 delegates whose integrity and love for the Somali people are beyond the shadow of doubt. These individuals must produce a national charter based on the 1960 constitution and nominate a small cabinet that will be a caretaker government for two years. The delegates who nominate the caretaker cabinet will not be able to appoint themselves nor will the cabinet be able to extend its mandate or be eligible for the first post-caretaker dispensation. The only way this will succeed is if the Somali people who have moved by the horrors visited on them by the Ethiopian regime and their Somali supplicants enthusiastically support this effort.

 

Members of the international community who have been implicated in the events of the past four years, particularly those of the last eight months, and who have been shamelessly silent about Ethiopian atrocities must drop their disingenuous practice and earnestly support genuine reconciliation via this new departure.

 

The principal task of the caretaker administration is to organize a genuine political reconciliation focused on the creation of just system and responsible government. Second, they will organize an independent constitutional commission that will produce a genuine Somali charter to be voted on by the people before the two years term is over. For this strategy to work and to secure the peace and common citizenship, a program of institution building should commence immediately.

 

This will require an honest international community serious about democracy taking the lead in re-building the administrative institutions of the government. The international community which is bound to pay for a significant amount of the cost of building this establishment could do the following in tandem with the Somali driven political reconciliation process. Given that an effective public service is essential for good governance and justice, a select group of old retired but skilled Somalis and relatively younger professionals who are employed in international institutions, overseas universities, and local institutions can be paired with a small number of expatriate technicians to work on this project. None of the Somalis deployed in this manner will be eligible for political office in the period immediately after the transition. The purpose of this constraint on the professionals is to ensure that they do not use this responsibility as a political platform for their own ends. Establishing a functioning public management system that will be handed over to the post-caretaker government must operate with a high degree of professional autonomy as that is an essential prerequisite for accountable government. Without such a development, the reconciliation process is unlikely to be sustainable beyond this period. Will members of the international community who have sanctioned the warlords, the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia and the carnage in Mogadishu have the moral courage to undertake this effort? All the signals point in the wrong direction! Therefore, Somali patriots with skills and means must put their resources together to jumpstart this venture.

 

In a nut-shell, Abdullahi Yusuf has shown his true colors with his tribalist ranting and the TFG has died with the carnage in Mogadishu. It is now or never for Somali patriots to stand-up.

[Fabregas]

Socod Badane, The T.F.G is pretty strong in several aspects. Firstly, it has under it's control several towns and districts. The most promiment being Puntland and Bay and Bakool. Secondly, the International community has put alot of effort into this adminstration. Which means they will not let the boys give up without a bitter fight to the end. Waxa la yidhi, Uncle Sam is asking the Ethiopians to stay. Because otherwise the "alqaeda" will come back to Somalia. Thus i disagree that the death of the T.F.G is imminent and it is also way too early to call for somebody to "replace". Even if the Ethiopians withdraw, Abdullahi Yusuf will never negotiate with certain subclans and the Islamist orientated folks. His past shows that he is a man that likes to settle things militarily. Therefore, with or without Ethiopians he will fight it out with his opponents. Therefore, we are stuck in a cycle of violence.

[Khalaf]

Xiin,

 

"All I'm asking is for you and other vocal anti-TFG folks to put forth concrete action plan on not only how Ethiopia should be fought off Somalia but who should replace them. “

 

^^^That’s what I been asking Xiin all along, but reality is not too kind I guess. Adeer Xiin will tell u he doesn’t expect much. Why don’t u expect much horta? One hand he says fight by any means necessary, then one the other lets have reconciliation process ect. Which one is it adeer? And what makes u think the TFG corruption if it is defeated will not be replaced with some other form of corruption, after much sweat, blood, and toil if i may add?

 

Ps: You gotta love politics! The EU unlike the US they always say, we all should know its only poltics and US and EU are on the same side of the da coin, maybe not act so publicly but certainly privately.

[Gabbal]

Khalafow! Adeer Xiin, at the least is a neutralist. That is if his conscience is as a good as he displays. I am willing to bet he is on the TFG side, what say you?!

[Khalaf]

^^^^Good to see ya again yaa Horn, and on what basis would u "bet" Xiin the most vocal anti-TFG man on SOL to be on the side of an entity he loathes very much? ina abtigis, yesterday u supported Hiralle (where is he btw ), who said he would use jews even, and if i may remember correctly not long ago was saying la-jihada the ethiopians? bal ka waraan taas Hornow?

[Gabbal]

I promise you I will come back to that Khalaf but know I know Xiin better then you. People trained in a certain art are able to pick up any unconscious voice within a piece of writing (or speaking). My dear friend Xiin is a TFG'ester.

[Khalaf]

^^^Allah knows best peoples intentions, unless u know the man personally, and that is not an easy charge Horn to acusse a man with blatant hypocrisy, what reason does he have to be double-faced fear men none the less anonymous cats then to fear his Creator? maybe its a personal grudge sxb, lakiin the somali in me tells me it is has nothin more to do then with the man's blood-line that you have these suspicions. And Allah Knows Best.

[Thierry.]

Dear Khalaf right in front of your eyes lies the solution to the current problem it only a sane man to see.

 

The TFG has failed miserably even myself who wanted to se amendments to it not its destruction see that it has reached a point of no return. Like many intellectuals and even US advocates just the other day called it part of the problem and not the solution.

 

The people that are most capable of taking us out of this mess are the intellectuals both in the Diaspora and in the country, Xiin has provided us the link to the strategic plan that such professors like Sammater has laid out.

The points he has put forward in my view are the best solution to this current problem.

 

Nobody wants to go back to anarchy, not Somaliland, not Puntland and least of all the people of Mogadishu who have suffered the most under the brutal warlords and now the Ethiopians.

 

Read the link