Fragmented federalism: Puntland and Jubaland’s quest for autonomy and its impact on Somali sovereignty

[Deeq A.]

Summary:

This article will examine how Puntland and Jubaland’s quest for greater autonomy has strained Somalia’s fragile federal framework, with a particular focus on security, economy, and legitimacy. It would examine the historical foundations of Puntland and Jubaland’s desire for self-government, their justifications for remaining independent of Mogadishu’s authority, and the impact on Somalia’s stability and sovereignty. The security and counterterrorism coordination part would investigate how fragmented federalism impedes coordinated responses to security challenges. Economic fragmentation would handle trade, resource management, and revenue distribution issues interfering with national cohesion. The legitimacy and political alignment part would evaluate competing regional and national interests. Furthermore, investigating the involvement of foreign players would demonstrate how external factors influence internal power dynamics. The paper will finish with a policy-focused road forward, noting potential opportunities for Somalia to establish trust, foster cooperation, and reinforce its national identity.

Challenges to National Unity: Security and Counterterrorism Coordination

Somalia’s federal system was designed to promote unity while preserving the sovereignty of its many regions. However, the experiences of Puntland and Jubaland demonstrate how federalism has occasionally exacerbated rather than healed divides within Somalia. In the northeast, Puntland and Jubaland in the south have both sought extensive autonomy from Mogadishu, focussing on local government and resource management. While these quests for independence have contributed to regional peace and self-government, they also offer substantial difficulties to Somalia’s national sovereignty, notably regarding security and counterterrorism coordination.

The campaigns for autonomy in Puntland and Jubaland have political and historical foundations. Puntland became an autonomous province in 1998, partially due to the turmoil in Mogadishu and a desire to rule autonomously. With its closeness to Kenya’s border and significant links to cross-border commerce, Jubaland has preserved its independence, emphasising the necessity for locally directed security and administration. These areas see themselves as separate entities inside Somalia, frequently demanding their autonomy at the expense of national unity. This autonomy hinders the federal government’s efforts to build a cohesive and autonomous Somali state capable of addressing security and governance concerns.

Puntland and Jubaland want independence for political and economic reasons. Politically, these regions have strong clan ties and local power structures that oppose federal intervention. Economically, Puntland and Jubaland want to control local resources, including trade income and possible oil deposits, which has significant consequences for national revenue-sharing policies. This quest for economic self-sufficiency frequently clashes with Mogadishu over resource management, causing economic friction and further separating these areas from the central authority.

These contradictions become even more pronounced in the realms of security and counterterrorism. Groups like Al-Shabaab, which take advantage of Somalia’s fragmented federal government, continue to pose a threat to the country. Puntland and Jubaland have established their own security forces, frequently outside the federal military, creating operational problems that impede collaborative counterterrorism activities. In Puntland, security forces periodically conflict with federal soldiers, but regional forces prioritise border security concerns over national objectives in Jubaland. This dispersion of security organisations exposes loopholes that extremist groups might exploit, threatening the federal government’s capacity to coordinate a national response to terrorism.

Foreign influence exacerbates these issues. Puntland and Jubaland have tight relations with regional actors like Kenya and Ethiopia and financial help from the UAE. While these partnerships give economic and political assistance, they also allow regional leaders to act more independently, often at the price of Somalia’s sovereignty. Kenya, for example, is involved in Jubaland’s security activities, which strengthens Jubaland’s independence and causes issues with Mogadishu. Similarly, Puntland’s financial and political links with the UAE generate external dependencies that impede Somalia’s efforts to establish federal sovereignty over its territories. These external ties undermine Somalia’s sovereignty, putting the federal government in a difficult position to balance regional autonomy with national cohesiveness.

The implications of Puntland and Jubaland’s autonomy go beyond security, affecting the federal system’s capacity to unite the country. As these areas establish independence, they risk setting a precedent that may inspire other states to follow suit, undermining Somalia’s unity. The idea of a divided Somalia erodes popular faith in the federal system, fuelling a cycle of regionalism that hinders efforts to establish a united Somali identity. Citizens who see the inequalities between autonomous regions and federal territories may feel estranged from the national government, resulting in a weak state subject to internal conflict and external interference.

Somalia must balance regional autonomy (such as Puntland and Jubaland) and national unity to solve these difficulties. Collaborative security frameworks might provide a more integrated approach to counterterrorism by allowing regional forces to work with federal soldiers as part of a nationally coordinated effort. Joint security structures, backed by regional and federal governments, might build confidence and facilitate effective intelligence sharing, eliminating weaknesses that extremist organisations could exploit.

International mediation might also help define the functions of regional and federal administrations in Somalia. A mediated approach might provide a neutral platform for Mogadishu and regional leaders to make accords that respect regional autonomy while strengthening Somalia’s sovereignty. These agreements might resolve economic issues, clarify resource management, and provide the groundwork for a more integrated federal government that fosters security and governance in all areas.

Finally, Puntland and Jubaland’s push for autonomy underscores Somalia’s federalism issues. Without a determined effort to bridge these gaps, Somalia risks becoming fragmented and subject to internal and external forces. The route forward is to build a federal system that respects regional identities while assuring a cohesive approach to government and security. This results in a resilient Somalia capable of defending its sovereignty in a complex regional terrain.

Legitimacy and Political Alignment

Somalia’s federal system has made achieving political cohesion and legitimacy difficult. Puntland and Jubaland’s desire for autonomy, motivated by diverse regional identities and historical grievances, has hindered efforts to form a unified national government. These areas function with a high degree of independence, causing political conflict with the federal administration in Mogadishu, which aspires to consolidate Somali authority. As Puntland and Jubaland establish their right to self-government, Mogadishu’s central authority is undermined, resulting in rival claims of legitimacy and split loyalties among Somali residents.

These legitimacy challenges are partly caused by the lack of an inclusive federal accord that addresses regional ambitions while promoting national unity. Puntland and Jubaland regularly criticise the federal government for overreach, claiming that their regional administrations are more responsive to local concerns and, hence, more legitimate in the eyes of their constituents. This discrepancy affects the formation of a national vision since Mogadishu frequently interprets the region’s activities as direct threats to its authority. The ongoing impasse on political alignment demonstrates the significant distrust between the core and the periphery, which prevents effective collaboration on security, development, and governance. Efforts to strengthen Somalia’s sovereignty are thwarted without alignment, making long-term stability impossible.

The Role of International Stakeholders

International stakeholders have an intricate role in the interactions between Somalia’s federal government and its semi-autonomous provinces. External players, such as surrounding states, international organisations, and foreign governments, have a vested interest in Puntland and Jubaland, and they frequently provide economic, security, and political support. This support occasionally allows Puntland and Jubaland to exercise their autonomy more aggressively, hindering Somalia’s efforts to develop a unified national policy. The engagement of surrounding governments, like as Kenya and Ethiopia, is especially significant since they frequently work with Puntland and Jubaland to handle cross-border security issues. However, such partnerships may be interpreted as compromising Somalia’s sovereignty since they give regional leaders resources and recognition, thereby weakening Mogadishu’s central authority.

The presence of foreign players can further exacerbate differences in Somalia since various governments and organisations frequently assist opposing factions or prioritise rival strategic objectives. This international fragmentation enables Puntland and Jubaland to function more freely, knowing that foreign assistance would protect them from Mogadishu’s pressure. Furthermore, while foreign players advocate for Somalia’s stability, their activities frequently unintentionally promote regional autonomy, contributing to a fractured approach to nation-building. A cohesive Somalia needs internal alignment and a coordinated and supportive international approach that upholds the country’s sovereignty. Without a change towards such a policy, foreign stakeholders’ influence may remain a double-edged sword, ensuring stability while fostering fragmentation.

Path Forward: Building Trust and National Identity

Puntland and Jubaland’s desire for autonomy threatens Somalia’s national sovereignty, highlighting the fragility of Somalia’s federal structure. This dispute brings to light deeper structural concerns that stem from the complexity of regional identity, political independence, and the legacy of civil strife. As Puntland and Jubaland exercise greater autonomy over their political and economic affairs, their efforts put extra strain on Somalia’s sovereignty, creating serious concerns about the survival of a unified state.

This federal fragmentation is rooted in a long-standing distrust between the central authority and these autonomous areas. The lack of a unified national identity, which is still eclipsed by regional attachments, exacerbates this split. Puntland and Jubaland’s unwillingness to completely integrate into Somalia’s national framework reflects a long-standing distrust of central authority and practical concerns about resource control, security, and political representation. This climate has developed a parallel political structure, reducing Somalia’s ability to function coherently and increasing its susceptibility to external influence and internal opposition.

The economic implications of this fragmentation are as substantial. Puntland and Jubaland frequently circumvent the central government to pursue their own economic objectives, including direct international partnerships and local resource control. This financial independence has increased prosperity in certain regions but has reduced the federal government’s ability to implement a coordinated national monetary strategy. Such a system risks developing regional economic imbalances, exacerbating division and limiting the government’s ability to engage in national infrastructure and development initiatives.

Addressing these difficulties necessitates a new federal structure that values regional sovereignty while supporting common national objectives. Building confidence between the central government, Puntland, and Jubaland is critical to resolving these conflicts. This method calls for open communication and explicit power-sharing agreements that accommodate both sides’ concerns. Establishing procedures for open resource sharing, maintaining equal representation in federal institutions, and developing collaborative economic ventures are crucial to accomplishing these goals.

For national identity to take root, the government must participate in significant nation-building programs honouring regional and Somali identities. These might include educational reform, inclusive cultural initiatives, and increased investment in infrastructure projects that connect various communities. By demonstrating the real benefits of federal unity, the Somali government can foster a feeling of shared belonging and heal historical differences.

Finally, overcoming the fractured federalism that undermines Somalia’s sovereignty necessitates a long-term commitment to cultivating mutual respect, trust, and common identity. By using a collaborative and inclusive approach, Somalia has the potential to convert its patchwork of autonomous regions into a robust, cohesive federation.

Conclusion

Puntland and Jubaland’s ambition for autonomy has significantly strained Somalia’s national unity and sovereignty, highlighting crucial challenges that threaten the country’s stability. Fragmented federalism has resulted in ineffective security and counterterrorism cooperation, as regional authorities prioritise local defence over a coherent national approach. This schism undermines Somalia’s reaction to challenges such as Al-Shabaab, which exploits these divisions to maintain power. Economically, Puntland and Jubaland’s independent objectives complicate national resource management and trade strategies, hurting Somalia’s economic coherence and raising the possibility of unequal regional growth.

Politically, the regional and federal authority conflict highlights weaknesses in Somalia’s legitimacy as a centralised state. The opposing loyalties diminish trust in Mogadishu’s ability to represent and administer a diverse nation, resulting in rival power structures. Furthermore, foreign parties drawn to Somalia’s strategic position frequently engage directly with regional administrations, unwittingly increasing autonomy and undermining national unity.

The route forward is to foster mutual trust and a shared national identity. A stable Somalia requires a federal system that preserves regional authority while encouraging unification. This includes honest resource sharing, equal political representation, and initiatives that address regional gaps. By matching regional and national interests, Somalia may transform into a robust and cohesive federation capable of facing its difficulties.

Mohamed H Salad

Researcher and Analyst, Studied International Security & Peace Conflict, Specialist in the Horn of Africa, and Secretary of former President of Somalia Dr Abdikasim Salad Hassan (TNG).

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