The strategic blunder of the hotel lobby president

[Coloow]

Day by day, hour by hour, it becomes apparent that Sheikh Sharif (better known as Hotel-jiig madaxweyne)is more concerned with the title of the president than doing something about the ills of Somalia. His selection and his appointment of his Prime minister resembles the presidency of Abdiqasim salaad Hassan (both of them were given the trust of somalia because somalis were said to want a clean man for the job).

 

If we need change (and I guess that is what most of us want) we need to look beyond substanceless tribal politics and adopt a paragmatic approach based on reconcilation, mending fences and bottom up.

 

The problems of somalia are many and complicated; but the southern part of somalia is where the problems are; where there are forces that have opposed sheikh sharif and where a political gesture would have perhaps increased the political capital and the legitimacy of the TFG II.

 

The son of Abdirashid Ali sharmarke (he is a somali and as such deserves to be named prime minister) but his appointment will not result in the TFG marching into Baydhabo, Xudur, Bardheere, Buulo Xaawo, Kismayo, Buaale and Marka.

 

In fact, the resistance to the government is likely to increase in the above areas; and before you know it, this bad copy of the TFG will only command the southern side of Mahadaay village.

 

The Hotel president should have been shrewed and appointed someone who commands political capital in say Baydhabo or Kismayo. Now this may not have solved the problem but it would surely show that there is a desire for change.

 

Alternatively, Mr. Hotel jiif would have appointed someone from Muqdisho (and stress that Muqdisho needs to be tamed and in the process become another LALALand.

 

We are doomed to continue of the same path as before. There is no change of dress; only some new faces.

 

I wish Abdirashid's son and hotel president the best of luck: but my prediction is this; a lot of traveling to western and arab capitals; some few buranburs by the diaspora; some few wasiir la magacaaba (and the drama that follows); a few clashes here and there; and finally in 6 months a change of prime minister; Xildhibaan's using " Mooshin" to do this and that; incremental conflicts here and there;

 

Which leads to another so called peace process.

 

So what is the root cause of this disease? tribalism (the hotel-jiif president in his first interview said there was not problem withh tribalism par se but how it used !!!!!). this kind of reasoning is what brought us the problem; and a president suppporting the logic of tribalism in this modern age is a sign that we are in for a new division.

[NASSIR]

Waranle, the southern places you listed are controlled by Al-shabaab, not clan. Who will you appoint? Select one person and explain why do you think that he would have been a better choice than someone from Puntland.

My perspective is that It's better to initiate the desire for negotiated settlement with Al-Shabaab groups and try to meet the conditions they set against the President such that Shariah law and the removal of EU troops?

[Xoogsade]

Originally posted by Xamar-Gale:

Waranle, the southern places you listed are controlled by Al-shabaab, not clan. Who will you appoint? Select one person and explain why do you think that he would have been a better choice than someone from Puntland.

My perspective is that It's better to initiate the desire for negotiated settlement with Al-Shabaab groups and try to meet the conditions they set against the President such that Shariah law and the removal of EU troops?

That is what we are watching Saxib. How Sheekh Shariif walks the talk and meets the conditions set by the people who oppose him. Things which have the potential to kill his government at infancy can include:

 

A- Requesting More foreign troops

 

B- Treating the powers that be in Jubba/Gedo/Bay/Shabeelloyinka as insignifcant and wrongly believe they don't matter.

 

C- Any war he authorizes against his opponents will chip away at his base eventually.

 

 

I hope peace prevails and the opposition groups take the best offers they get. Kollay aragtida dadka Jubbadahoose inta aniga aan ka warqabo, Nabadooda in laga carqaladeeyo ma Jecla. Dowlad magac Soomaaliyeed ku socota inay ula timaado qashqashaad iyo musuqmaasuq cabsideedaa ka jirta. Xukun Islaam ahaa hadda ka jira meesha oo taageero u baahan. Any political moves/decisions that would upset the status quo will lead back to the old days of chaos and disorder. Gobollada kalee Dhallinyarada ka taliyaana waa la mid. Sheekh Shariif must support their admins and strengthen them. Hadduu maamulka sharifka la yimaaddo howlo ka dhan ah nabadda gobolladaas ka jirta, Muqdishana Xukun Islaam ah kusoo rogi waayo, Ciidamo shisheeyana codsado, he will fail the way I see it, tii Ilaahayna waa gooni.

[Abwaan]

Sxb Waranle you need to face the reality What if Mr Sharmarke is not from those areas you mentioned? You really care about the region rather than other important issues? right? Why do you care about where he is from as long as he has no crime history and can do the job?

 

Are you suggesting Abu Mansur to be the PM when you said Xudur and stuff...Do you think they will oppose Adan madoobe?

 

By the way Xag Alle ayey ka qornaydba in ninkaan la magacaabo adiga iyo aniguna waxba kama qaban karno other than support for the sake of the country even if you disagree with it cause we have seen far worse leaders and situations. Please don't judge this guy because he is from a certain area where Yeey comes from...hehe...he has different personality and is much more better than him in many ways.

 

So please let us be positive and forget if..if...if syndrome.

[Coloow]

Xamar Gale, My way of thinking (I could be wrontg) is this:

 

It is the problem hotspots in somalia that should be satisfied; with a president from Muqdisho and a prime minister (that many claim to represent Puntland)there will still be reason for those opposing the government to say "maxaan idin sheegnay?".

 

It is not about who is better to run a country bro; that is an alien thing in somali politics; it is finger pointing politics; and in my opinion Sheikh Hotel has missed a golden opportunity to lure the residents of the deep south.

 

Puntland is not run by renegades and I am positive that they would have also accepted if the prime minister was anywhere in Somalia.

 

Abwaan; you got me wrong bro: I am not from those areas I mentioned; I am just having a pragmatic approach that is good for somalis; where he comes from is not important to me or you; but it matters in the eyes of the places I mentioned; besides it would have eroded the political support base.

 

Yes, now Robow et al are going to tell those people; look the so called 4,5 formula is actually a 2.0 formulae. Madoobe will be viewed as a weak man; and this government will not gain the support of the regions that matter.

 

Abwaan; come on sxb where did I say I oppose this guy because he comes from an X-region? It is not about judging the guty (in fact, I know him personally- and in a sane somalia I would be happy if he was the president). But we are talking about Somalia anno 2009 and it is not competence that is valued rather it is about making sure those oppose the TFG II will be brought into the mould.

[Allamagan]

Waranle is right. There is none so deaf as those who will not hear. So far from get go Sharifka demonstrated a worrying naivety about the real political issues in Somalia and how to approach in solving these problems. Xumbo & xiiso wa dhacaan aanu aragno meeshay nageyso.

[Coloow]

Allamaganow, Ishaad ka turtay sxb. "there is none so deaf as those who will not hear"

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by [Waranle]:

In fact, the resistance to the government is likely to increase in the above areas; and before you know it, this bad copy of the TFG will only command the southern side of Mahadaay village.

It is interesting you mentioned this because I was just reading this;

 

Reer Gedo oo sheegay in Dowladda cusub ee Soomaaliya ay xaqoodii duudsiisay

 

Sabti, February 14, 2009(HOL): Dadka ku dhaqan Gobolka Gedo ayaa waxay muujiyeen in ay ka soo horjeedaan Ra’iisal Wasaaraha uu Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya u magacaabay C/rashiid Cali Sharma-arke.

 

Odayaal iyo Waxgarad shir ku yeeshay Degmada Baardheere ee Gobolka Gedo ayaa waxay sheegeen in aysan aqoonsaneyn Dowladda Midnimada Qaran ee Jibouti lagu soo dhisay, waxayna si cad u sheegeen in dowladdaas ay tahay mid duudsiisay xaqii ay lahaayeen.

 

Cali Maxamuud Cali (Cali Dhuux) oo u hadlay Odayaasha iyo Waxgaradka shirka ku yeeshay Baardheere ayaa sheegay in Dowladda cusub ee Soomaaliya loogu dhisay Jibouti ay u arkayaan mid ka mid ah Gobollada Jibouti, wuxuuna carrabka ku dhuftay in aysan aqoonsaneyn.

 

Cali Dhuux waxaa uu sheegay in ay ugu baaqayaan Dadka ku jira Dowladdii TFG-da ee hadda noqotay Dowladda Midnimada Qaran in ay ka baxaan Dowladda, isla markaana ay dadkooda dhinac ka raacaan, wuxuuna carrabka ku dhuftay in ay iyaguna wax la qeybsan doonaan Ururrada Dalka Soomaaliya ka jira ee midnimada, cadaaladda iyo wadajirka doonaya.

 

Guddoomiyaha Degmada Beled Xaawo Axmed Maxamed Yuusuf Bur-kuus ayaa isna magacaabista Ra’iisal Wasaare C/rashiid ku tilmaamay mid aan sax ahayn, wuxuuna sheegay in ay filayeen in Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya uu xilkaas u soo magacaabi doono Maslax Maxamed Siyaad Barre oo ahaa musharixii ugu dambeeyay ee kula tartamayay doorashadii xilka madaxweynenimada Soomaaliya.

 

Geni Xasan Diiriye oo iyaduna ah Guddoomiyaha Ururka Haweenka Beled Xaawo ayaa sheegtay in ay dareemayaan in la duudsiiyay xaqii ay u lahaayeen in loo magacaabo Xilka Ra’iisal Wasaarenimada Soomaaliya,waxayna Geni carrabka ku dhufatay in Beesha **** oo xilkaas laga wareejiyay ay tahay beel weyn oo degta gobollo dhowr ah oo Soomaaliya ku yaala, kuwaasi oo ay ka xustay Gedo, Jubooyinka iyo Galgaduud.

 

Si kastaba arrintu ha ahaatee, Gobolka Gedo ayaa wuxuu noqonayaa gobolkii ugu horeeyay oo laga mucaarado Dowladda Midnimada Qaran ee Soomaaliya, gaar ahaan magacaabista Ra’iisal Wasaaaha cusub ee Soomaaliya.

 

Salaad Iidow Xasan (Xiis), Hiiraan Online

sxiis@hiiraan.com

Mogadishu, Somalia

^That sentiment only benefits the hardcore opposition to Shiekh Sharif that controls the overwhelming majority of the south.

[Kashafa]

I hope peace prevails and the opposition groups take the best offers they get

Lol@take the best offers they get. Since when did Thoroughbred, Inc beg for offers, homey ? Since when did Thoroughbred, Inc follow and not lead ? You got it all jumbled up, perhaps due to the whole euphoria of Shaykh Sharif getting coronated. Lemme break it down for you real quick:

 

Regardless of where you stand on the political/ideological spectrum, you must adhere to law of facts-on-the-ground, just as you adhere to the law of gravity , comprede amigo ? And as of 2-14-2009, the strongest military force in Somalia and the force that controls the most land(over 300,000 sq km by my estimate) is none other than Somali Resistance, all operating in tandem, and having the support of a wide swathe of Somali-dom, cutting across qabil lines and qabiil consideration.

 

What about Shayk Hotel ? He remains holed up in Villa Somalia, protected by the very same soldiers who massacred 80 Somalis just 2 weeks ago. His parliment has been overrun, disbanded, and destroyed. His MPs are refugees in Ja'Booty. He has little support except among members of his own clan and a boisterous but ineffectual peacenik/d.h.a.b.o.d.h.l.if. alliance. He has no army, except that of his xaraan-ku-nax clan militia and the xaraan-ku-nax clan militia of his allies(Qaybdiid, Xaabsade, Faroole, etc)

 

These are facts, discernible to anybody with eyes. Given the above, who is in the position to offer anything ? Who is in the position to use the stick-and-carrot approach ? Who is in the position to issue ultimatums ? Who is in the position to go ahead and subdue the rest of Somalia(by force, if need be)

 

If you say Shaykh Hotel, Inc, you leave me no choice but to accuse you of smoking crack. Please don't make say you smoke crack. 'Cuz I will.

 

The 'opposition', as you put it, has one demand, actully, it's more like an ultimatum:

 

a)All mercenaries must leave Somali soil unconditionally and immediately.

 

b) The last few dregs of the TFG will be dismantled and disbanded, just as they were dismantled and disbanded in Baidoba(Big up, Abu Mansoor, excellent psy-ops operation in taking over B-town) If they comply and turn over ALL weaponry, their lives and properties will be safeguarded, by none other than the authority of Islamic Sharia. Anybody that transgresses against them will be dealt with like this(Yes, there is still honour, nobility, and justice remaining in the world, even if many of you have forsaken it, there are those who live and die by it.)

 

c) Or. Else.('nuff said, that "or else" by itself aa rag badan aan ogahay kaadi ka keenayso).

 

The #1 mistake that you and many other good-hearted, well-meaning brothers are making is recognising the TFG in the first place and fearing the clout and might of the Antarnashanal Kamoonity(nakhshaa an tuseebanaa daa'irah). Khaanzeer weligees ma taahiroobe, or so the maah-maah went. The TFG was(notice the past tense) a b.a.s.t.a.r.d institution from the moment of it's inception, a collection of war criminals, veterans of the 88-93 clan strife, corrupt Afweyne-era ministers to whom bribery and graft became a science to be studied and applied, and two-bit calool-shaqeystayaal bagamoodos who made it a profession of begging the UN for yet another 'peace process' so they could live hotels at the taxpayers expense.

 

Would you not be a spectacular doqon to believe that such an abomination could be 'rehabiliated' by putting a spineless Macalin-Dugsi at the head of it ? Honestly now, would you not be a doqon to believe in that crap ?

 

It's very simple, abti. Somalia has turned the corner. There's no going back to the past. This resolve is not mere intention and words, but it is actualised by the cement of nation-building: Iron and Blood.

 

After Al-Tawakal Cala'Allah, Iron and Blood will see to it that traitrous b.a.s.t.a.r.d concotion known as the TFG will be eradicated from Somalia. Iron and Blood will see to it that Islamic Governance, and ensuing peace and prosperity, will hold sway over every last inch of Somali soil.

 

Believe that.

[Xoogsade]

Kashafa

 

Saxib, The objectives of the Resistance for the past two years went this way:

 

A- Eviction of Ethiopia --> The primary Goal

B- Islamic Sharia Laws --> Secondary Goal

 

The first was achieved and the human cost was great. Massive displacement to the tune of million plus and thousands of deaths with high civilian casualities. The vicitims of this war saw it as worth the sacrifice. The second objective is also achieved in all areas ruled by the opposition groups. Question is, how do you move forward now? 1- You can continue the war without the presence of Xabashi incendiary needed to fuel the passions and ultimately lose support, B- Adopt to the new realities on the ground and Negotiate, let Sheekh Shariif walk the talk. The guns should be silent for now saxib. Sheekh Shariif should be the one who introduces the conflicts so he takes the blame. That way, you get support from somalis who value justice over personalities. Shariif says he will talk and negotiate, it doesn't matter what people allege him to be, stooge or whatever, what matters is what he wants to do in the practical sense. He should be given the chance to make some decisions first.

 

Horn and Allamagan

 

Gedoboys, positionna kalaa u furan reeraha LOL. Halaga warsugo Shariifka.

[Sir-Qalbi-Adeyg]

The appointment of the new Prime ministers seems to have agitated many clanists, why exactly do they have problem with both shieck sharif and ina cabdirashid? Both are educated and good men.

 

Al shabab's has no relevance in somalia, are they gonna wage jihaad on fellow somali's now?if they are smart, they will join shieck sharif's government and be part of a national army and rebuild the tattred remains of the somali republic.

 

Somalia finally has the right and practical leadership we've been waiting, let's make something of it.

[Allamagan]

lool @ Xoogsade!! annagu tan (Sharif TFG) na ersan mayso Allaha u fududeeyo ... you just wait and see bacdal honey moon. secondly, it doesnt matter who the PM is, but what really matters is how all this came about and all that appeasement nature to it. I am not that optimistic whether it will bear any fruits at all (may Allah forbid).

[Dhagax-Tuur]

It is sad how quickly things are falling apart.

[Coloow]

Originally posted by Cabdirashid Cali Sharmarke:

The appointment of the new Prime ministers seems to have agitated many clanists, why exactly do they have problem with both shieck sharif and ina cabdirashid? Both are educated and good men.

 

Al shabab's has no relevance in somalia, are they gonna wage jihaad on fellow somali's now?if they are smart, they will join shieck sharif's government and be part of a national army and rebuild the tattred remains of the somali republic.

 

Somalia finally has the right and practical leadership we've been waiting, let's make something of it.

Educated? does that make them good leaders? Good men? how do you know?

[xiinfaniin]

It was Ethiopia yesterday. Today it’s the pm coming from the wrong clan. Different arguments, similar objectives.