Egypt delivers arms to Somalia, escalating regional tensions

[Deeq A.]

Mogadishu (Caasimada Online) – Egypt has sent a large shipment of military aid to Somalia, likely to raise tensions across the Horn of Africa.

According to officials, this is the second major arms delivery from Cairo to Mogadishu within a few months, accompanied by advanced weaponry, including anti-aircraft guns and artillery.

Military cooperation is increasingly growing between Egypt and Somalia, as both nations share a concern over Ethiopia’s influence in the region, especially over Addis Ababa’s controversial construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.

The most recent consignment was announced in a statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry on Monday. The ministry added that the delivery was part of Egypt’s engagements to strengthen the SNA, hence enhancing the country’s ability to ensure security and stability.

“This shipment is a reconfirmation from Egypt to its continuous central role in supporting the efforts of Somalia regarding developing the national capabilities necessary for enabling the Somali people to achieve their aspirations for security, stability, and development,” it said.

This is the second batch of military aid from Egypt to Somalia after a similar delivery in August this year, believed to be the first in over four decades.

If anything, the support has been a critical component in the long-term fight that Somalia has engaged in against extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab, which continues to destabilize the region.

Not without controversy, the aid raises concerns over the shifting alliances and the broader geopolitical tensions in the region.

Cairo-Mogadishu axis: A strategic alliance

This growing military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia came when both countries found a common cause: distrust of Ethiopia.

In August, Egypt and Somalia signed a joint security pact, concretely expressing their mutual unease at Ethiopia’s regional behavior.

The deal is said to have resulted in many planeloads of Egyptian arms being shipped to Somalia to beef up the country’s security forces.

The latest shipment was made by an Egyptian warship, which started unloading weapons on Sunday. Local reports, including the Reuters news agency, said security forces cordoned off the quayside and the roads nearby as the arms were transferred to military bases in Mogadishu.

Nasra Bashir Ali, an official in the Office of the Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, published photos on social media showing Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur overseeing the unloading process.

Ethiopian tensions: The Somaliland deal

This might not be surprising, especially considering that the military alliance between Egypt and Somalia is not taking place in isolation. Ethiopia’s relations with both countries have increasingly grown strained.

Earlier in the year, Addis Ababa fell out with Somalia after signing a provisional agreement with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland.

The proposed deal is to see Ethiopia lease land for a new port in Somaliland in exchange for a possible recognition of the breakaway region from Somalia.

For Somalia, the agreement has been seen as a direct attack on its sovereignty because it still views Somaliland as its territory. Mogadishu has refused to recognize its self-declared independence.

Mogadishu has called for Ethiopia to withdraw its estimated 3,000 troops serving in Somalia under the ATMIS mission before the year-end unless Addis Ababa revokes the Somaliland agreement.

Ethiopia’s presence in Somalia

But Ethiopia’s engagement with Somalia is more profound than the recent deal with Somaliland:

The country has also kept a sizeable military deployment in Somalia-the longest-serving foreign mission anywhere-as part of ATMIS, the African Union-led peacekeeping force mandated to suppress the ongoing insurgency conducted by the militant group Al-Shabaab.

Excluding the peacekeepers, about 5,000 to 7,000 Ethiopian troops are in other parts of Somalia under another bilateral agreement between the two countries.

Certainly, Ethiopia’s involvement has been important in supporting Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab; the recent Somaliland deal further complicated relations.

The government of Somalia considers the agreement repressive, and the leadership has already made it known that a withdrawal of Ethiopian forces should take place unless such a deal is abandoned.

Egypt in the Horn of Africa

Meanwhile, Egypt has continued to increase its involvement in the Horn of Africa following a decades-long dispute with Ethiopia over the GERD project.

Cairo perceives the Ethiopian gigantic dam on the Blue Nile as an existential threat to its water security, given that Egypt depends on the Nile for most of its fresh water.

Over the years, Egypt and Ethiopia have disagreed on the dam’s operation, with Cairo warning that it may reduce water flow downstream.

In this vein of far-reaching regional power dynamics, one can situate Egypt’s latest arms shipment to Somalia and growing alliance with Mogadishu.

In return, by militarily supporting Somalia, Cairo bolsters an ally and increases its influence in a region where Ethiopian actions increasingly appear to be destabilizing.

Besides offering military aid, Egypt has also shown readiness to provide troops to the new peacekeeping force in Somalia.

According to the African Union of last July, an offer from Cairo, although the Egyptian capital has not spoken publicly about this.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has stressed that his country stands with and by Somalia.

In January, he reminded his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, during a press conference in Cairo, saying, “Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or affect its security.”

While events in the Horn of Africa are taking their course, the Egyptian-Somali alliance will likely continue to play a decisive role in regional security dynamics.

As long as there is a military presence of Ethiopia in Somalia, and the disputes concerning the Somaliland deal and the right direction of the project of the GERD are not resolved, tensions cannot be relaxed anytime soon.”

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