Somalia signals possible rebel support against Ethiopia

[Deeq A.]

Mogadishu (Caasimada Online) – Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi warned that his government may consider supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia if the Ethiopian government proceeds with implementing a controversial agreement signed with Somaliland.

The statement, made during an interview with Universal TV on September 12, marks a sharp escalation in tensions between the neighboring countries.

Fiqi’s remarks indicate that Somalia could potentially reach out to armed groups fighting the Ethiopian regime if the current political situation worsens.

“The option to have contacts with armed rebels in Ethiopia or those fighting against the Ethiopian regime is open to Somalia,” Fiqi stated.

He added that although the situation has not yet reached a critical point, the Somali government is prepared to take action if Ethiopia continues its current course. “It’s a door open to us,” Fiqi said, though he expressed hope that a peaceful resolution could still be achieved.

The escalating diplomatic dispute comes after Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway region seeking independence from Somalia since 1991.

The agreement, signed on January 1, 2024, appears to grant Ethiopia significant geopolitical and military leverage in the Horn of Africa by leasing 20 kilometers of Somaliland’s coastline for naval use over the next 50 years.

Potential ties with Tigrayan rebels

In his interview, Fiqi addressed whether Somalia might collaborate with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a group that fought a bloody two-year war against Ethiopia’s federal government before a ceasefire was brokered in November 2022.

When asked about the possibility of Somalia aligning with the TPLF, Fiqi was cautious but left the door open. “We discussed that,” Fiqi said, “but at this time, the collapse of Ethiopia is not in the interest of Somalia or the Horn of Africa region.”

Nonetheless, Fiqi was clear that if Ethiopia continues to engage with Somaliland and supports the secessionist movement, Somalia might reconsider its position.

“If they continue to support those opposing Somalia and the secessionist groups they have signed agreements with, it’s an option for us,” he said.

Ethiopia reacts with scorn

Ethiopia’s deputy permanent representative to the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Nebiyu Tedla, sharply criticized Fiqi’s comments. In a post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Nebiyu described the Somali government’s rhetoric as irresponsible.

“It’s comical to witness al-Shabab agents posing as government officials who are unable to function effectively outside of Banaadir (the Mogadishu area), babbling hollow nationalism,” Nebiyu wrote.

Nebiyu warned that such comments could undo years of progress between the two nations. “Such will only undermine years of progress and lead Somalia into the pit,” he added.

Ethiopia’s reaction underscores the longstanding tensions between the two countries, with a history of conflict dating back several decades.

Despite periods of cooperation, including Ethiopia’s involvement in peacekeeping missions in Somalia, the two nations have often found themselves on opposite sides of regional disputes.

Historical context: Wars and peace talks

Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia are rooted in a complex history of territorial disputes and proxy wars. The two nations fought two major wars in the late 20th century—first in the 1970s over the Ogaden region and then again in the 1980s, as both governments supported rebels against each other’s regimes.

In 1988, Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and Ethiopian President Mengistu Haile Mariam brokered a peace agreement. The two leaders agreed to cease hostilities and committed to stopping their support for each other’s insurgent movements.

This détente, mediated by then-Djiboutian President Hassan Guled Aptidon, was a significant step toward stability in the Horn of Africa, but tensions have periodically resurfaced.

Somalia’s concerns over Somaliland’s independence

The current flashpoint between Ethiopia and Somalia centers on Somaliland, which has functioned as a de facto independent state since its declaration of independence in 1991. However, it has not gained international recognition, and Somalia continues to view the region as part of its sovereign territory.

Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, which would make it the first country to recognize Somaliland’s independence formally, has deeply alarmed Somalia.

The naval base agreement is seen by Somalia as a direct threat to its territorial integrity, with many in Mogadishu fearing that such deals could embolden secessionist movements elsewhere in the country.

Fiqi emphasized that Somalia considers this MOU an infringement on its sovereignty and warned that if Ethiopia continues to push for its implementation, the Somali government will take retaliatory measures.

“It’s the correct thing to go there, to take that path to meet them, to support them, to stand by them [the rebels],” Fiqi said. However, he reiterated that this would only happen if Ethiopia persisted with its plans.

Calls for diplomatic resolution

As tensions mount, international players have stepped in to encourage dialogue. U.S. Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, speaking in Addis Ababa, emphasized the need for cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia.

“Let me state unequivocally, the United States supports Somalia’s territorial sovereignty, integrity, and unity, and we have made that very clear,” Hammer said.

Hammer urged both nations to avoid escalating the situation and instead focus on mutual interests, particularly the fight against al-Shabab, an Islamist militant group that has destabilized the region for over a decade.

“There is no reason that these two countries should have difficulties that can’t be resolved through conversations,” he said.

The U.S. envoy’s comments highlight the delicate balance needed to maintain peace in the Horn of Africa, a region with a fair share of conflict. For now, the situation remains fragile, with the potential for both diplomatic solutions and further escalation hanging in the balance.

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