The Las Anod Conflict and Geopolitical Uncertainties in the Horn of Africa

[Deeq A.]

Garowe (PP Commentary ) — In February 2023, when the Foreign Minister of the Somaliland Administration, Essa Keyd, claimed that his “administration is a buffer zone for Ethiopia,” the Las Anod conflict was raging. Ethiopia responded to the conflict by trying to mediate between the Somaliland administration and the leaders of Sool, Sanaag, Cayn, and Khatumo. Ethiopian mediators visited Garowe several times, but Somaliland insisted on its narrative that it was fighting Al-Shabaab in Las Anod. The Federal Government did not object to either of these claims  — Somaliland as a buffer zone for Ethiopia, and fighting Al-Shabaab in Las Anod. These two claims were clear violations of Somalia’s sovereignty, to which the Federal Government of Somalia turned a blind eye.

The Somaliland administration rejected several UN Security Council calls for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Somaliland troops from the outskirts of Las Anod. The President of Somaliland, Muse Bihi Abdi,  claimed that only when a two-state solution is entertained would the conflict come to an end.

The defeat of Somaliland forces at Goja’adde foxholes on 25 August 2023 changed not only the political dynamics in Somalia but also triggered geopolitical uncertainties, exemplified by the maritime Memorandum of Understanding that Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, signed with Muse Bihi Abdi, the President of the secession-seeking administration of Somaliland. The Somaliland administration and its supporters described the Goja’adde defeat as “the withdrawal of Somaliland forces,” but that changed when Bihi clarified several days ago near Oog that what happened was “a setback.”

It was more than a setback. If Somaliland forces had advanced to what used to be the border between the ex-British Somaliland and ex-Italian Somaliland, Muse Bihi would claim a right to statehood. He would seek recognition based on what ardent secessionists describe as “realities on the ground.” Failure to achieve its secession through conflict forced the Somaliland Administration to seek a vassal state status under Ethiopia as a path to attaining secession. If anything, Ethiopia owes its current muscular policy for sea access to the defeat of Somaliland militia at Goja’adde. It was a turning point in Somali political history and overshadowed even the capture of Elbur by the Somali National Army on 25 August 2023.

Recently, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud claimed that Ethiopia does not regard Somalia as a sovereign country. Somaliland was waging a war against the sovereignty of Somalia, but the Federal Government of Somalia did not reject the secessionists’ claims to sovereignty. That indifference to domestic threats to the sovereignty of Somalia sends a message to any country with expansionist motives. The security pact the Federal Government of Somalia signed with Ethiopia in December 2023 strengthened Ethiopia’s perception that all Somali stakeholders seek Ethiopia’s assistance to attain political goals in Somalia. Somaliland administration leaders would be wrong to think that Ethiopia does not understand the political impact of the six-month-long Las Anod conflict. Haile Selassie understood that secession in Somalia could ignite ethnonationalist movements within Ethiopia.

© Puntland Post, 2024.

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