A new dawn for Maakhir after SSC, Awdal emergence.

[maakhiri1]

20 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Somalidu waxay tirah labba qawani isma qaadaan 

Xaaji, xoogaagii aad magaca dadkan ku qaadan jirteen waa dhamaatey, intii Ku kibbirteen hore qaadateen iimaansada

[Illyria]

5 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Maakhir and SSC will form one federal state together, best possible scenario.

Anyways, this is happening and early stages

Besides the Disapora fervour, what is the sentiment on the ground for Makhir and SSCKH to form an FMS?

[Che -Guevara]

Garaad Jaamac and Suldaan Saciid are two men who can give indication where Pland and SSC politics is heading.

People are naturally suspicious of thr people meeting in Xamar. After all, they can make their case to people by simply coming to Maakhir.

[maakhiri1]

On 8/14/2024 at 1:05 PM, Illyria said:

Besides the Disapora fervour, what is the sentiment on the ground for Makhir and SSCKH to form an FMS?

very valid point, it is very hard to tell , too early.

Rather than break up things, it is better to fix , Somalis always prefer break things up.

[Arafaat]

17 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

very valid point, it is very hard to tell , too early.

Rather than break up things, it is better to fix , Somalis always prefer break things up.

Consolidation is the way to go. Even if it’s two tuulo’s working together for service delivery to their people, it’s way better and move forward from the current standpoint.  

[Illyria]

On 8/14/2024 at 9:51 AM, Che -Guevara said:

Garaad Jaamac and Suldaan Saciid are two men who can give indication where Pland and SSC politics is heading.

People are naturally suspicious of thr people meeting in Xamar. After all, they can make their case to people by simply coming to Maakhir.

Garaad Dagaalka Galla's vision is crystal clear, and he will not be repeating the mistakes of the Galaydh era, where he was misguided by the politics of the day. He is much the wiser now, and bearing the scars under his eyes. In this victory tour, he is distancing himself from said mistakes now championed by Timacadde, A/Rashid et al in Xamar.

On 8/15/2024 at 1:58 AM, maakhiri1 said:

very valid point, it is very hard to tell , too early.

Rather than break up things, it is better to fix , Somalis always prefer break things up.

If history is anything to go by, where Hashi, Cashara, and Yusuf H Sacid could not agree on basic principles, I very much doubt Firdhiye & Jamal could, as they are not even on the same wavelength, let alone principle. 

12 hours ago, Arafaat said:

Consolidation is the way to go. Even if it’s two tuulo’s working together for service delivery to their people, it’s way better and move forward from the current standpoint.  

As people, we are not quite there yet, and at a minimum, it shall take half a century to realise strength in unity. It only comes at the realistion of the cost of disunity. It can not be rushed, or taught, and must take its natural course.  

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

This is 'federalism' aad la or ordeysay. It is for me not for thee waaye sheekadaada.

Mise federalism clan federalism aad adiga u talineysid ayaa rabtaa kaliya? Let Reer Sool and Sanaag do whatever they want with themselves.

Haddaa adiga rabin Xamar aayahaaga lagaaga taliyo, iyagana u ogoloow haddee rabin Garoowe aayahooda loogu taliyo.

[Illyria]

4 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

This is 'federalism' aad la or ordeysay. It is for me not for thee waaye sheekadaada.

I think you are failing to grasp my point, and now I see wherein lies the glitch: you are having trouble understanding my position, or for what I am advocating, hence your lacklustre, if hastily rehearsed responses non-applicable to the discussion at hand, unless of course you are mistaking me for someone else, or are bringing in a side conversation you have been engaged in. Or is this a classic case of ESL failure? Here, you are levelling against me of holding a position contrary to the one I have been arguing for. Pray, why? I have always argued in favour of SSCKH self-Admin. The same applies to Makhir. And if the two form an FMS, I am also for it, in fact I am promoting it. Or did you miss all of that by a century whilst feasting upon a badly simmered "muufo"?

By the way, words like "aad la ordaysay" are infantile, and rather immature adding no meaningful value to the discourse.

4 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

Mise federalism clan federalism aad adiga u talineysid ayaa rabtaa kaliya? Let Reer Sool and Sanaag do whatever they want with themselves.

What do you think I have been advocating for? Again, you missing the nub of the discussion by a century. Surely, you do not expect me to teach you how best interpret, and decipher mature discourse, do you?

4 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

Haddaa adiga rabin Xamar aayahaaga lagaaga taliyo, iyagana u ogoloow haddee rabin Garoowe aayahooda loogu taliyo.

Again, re-read, slowly this time, and if need be, consult chatGP to decipher its meaning. 

[galbeedi]

Welcome Maakhir.

By far  the Maakhiriis are  the most civilized Somalis in Woqooyi/Bari/Galbeed. The haven't fired one single bullet, yet they control their land by default. Unlike Khaatumo and Awdal, they have never been " Hasha Labada Geel Jecel". They chose PUntland early and sticked with it. In terms of land mass, Sanaag is one of the largest regions. Sanaag Bari is probably larger than Awdal.

With Dhahar, Hadaaftimo, Laasqoray and Badhan they have enough districts to join Khaatumo while Ceerigaabo will be divided like Gaalkacayo in the middle.

And what our friend Xaaji has for solutions? Ma noqon karaan maamul.

Xaaji unless you come back to the fold expect more disintegration. You probably believed the fake news coming from radio Hargeisa and the loud boastings of Habro from the interment. Balkanization is reality if you think your clan is the state.

Well , victory day in Khaatumo SSC will be probably huge this year. I see Maakhir and Awdal at the stage to premier the prelude that will come in the future.

 

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Districts can’t become mamuul goboleed if u bend the rules for one qabil  besides hassan sheikh  no matter how much he dislikes somaliland and Ethiopia political alliance he shall never support another d block clan state that will jeapordise his presidency or the unuka organisation .

ceerigaabo rag ba leh. We heard Ahmed karaaash talk about it. Let him come. Ceerigaabo Waxa ka taliya since 1989 ina xaaji nuur cid ugu imanaysa na ma jirto siilaanyo tried to remove so did cigaal do u think  the small Garaad clan is a match for big beards bal ha is keenan. If the breach the 1993 agreement they signed they can prepare for war and this time it’s gonne be very ugly it isn’t the Somaliland republic that  is doing the fighting it will be the mighty habar jones clan that will be doing much of the fighting 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

12 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Districts can’t become mamuul goboleed if u bend the rules for one qabil  besides hassan sheikh  no matter how much he dislikes somaliland and Ethiopia political alliance he shall never support another d block clan state that will jeapordise his presidency or the unuka organisation .

Xataa hadduu maamul goboleed cusub jiro, xildhibaannada la kala qeybsado will always be 4.5 for the foreseeable future. Maamul goboleed cusub walba will just share the already agreed xildhibaanno 66 of each qabiil wadaag. Meesha dooda ka imaan doonto will be aqalka sare, which already is lopsided for labada Waqooyi (Galbeed iyo Bari) who get 11 seats when the rest get 8.

[Che -Guevara]

HSM opposed Jland and was not fan of SW, but he was forced to accept both. In any case, the Northern H@arti clans have every intention of redifining the politics in the North. Muse Bihi's threats only reinforces their conviction.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

1 hour ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

Xataa hadduu maamul goboleed cusub jiro, xildhibaannada la kala qeybsado will always be 4.5 for the foreseeable future. Maamul goboleed cusub walba will just share the already agreed xildhibaanno 66 of each qabiil wadaag. Meesha dooda ka imaan doonto will be aqalka sare, which already is lopsided for labada Waqooyi (Galbeed iyo Bari) who get 11 seats when the rest get 8.

hada waxa l aisku haysta senetka iyo guurtida in halka luug kala adkaado oo lugu kala batto ba la diidanyahay the 4.5 qabil quota of barlamaanka hoose wa caadi wa affarta reerood iyo point fiveka

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

52 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

HSM opposed Jland and was not fan of SW, but he was forced to accept both. In any case, the Northern H@arti clans have every intention of redifining the politics in the North. Muse Bihi's threats only reinforces their conviction.

The situation with Hassan Sheikh Maxamuud  is quite intricate. His stance on Jubbaland is clear  he never really truly desired its existence, as it lies beyond his sphere of influence plus the Kenyan involvement . Similarly, regions like SSC and Maakhir, along with any other potential states, also fall outside his control. His brief engagement with Khatumo was merely a tactic to undermine Deni, and when that strategy failed, he abandoned them without hesitation.

Hassan Sheikh is wary of any additional opposition to his administration, particularly from the D-block clan groups . He perceives the creation of another D-block state as a direct threat to his authority and would strongly resist such a development. His animosity toward Ina Bixi, especially after being betrayed in the MOU affair, runs deep. He might even attempt to persuade Bixi to delay the MOU's implementation, urging him instead to focus on restoring Somaliland first. And he would Assist Biixi with this.

Hassan Sheikh is undeniably a shrewd operator, a calculated crook who masks his cunning with a smile. He is acutely aware of the potential power shifts that could arise if rival D Block clans grow stronger than his own establishment, posing a risk to his political position. Thus, he may be willing to offer Somaliland significant concessions—financial support, military assistance, and a special arrangement for aid—anything except diplomatic recognition. Reports from the Djibouti talks december 2023 suggest that discussions were held regarding Somaliland's status as a special autonomous  republic within Somalia, with its own laws and a distinct status.

Hassan Sheikh understands the influence of Puntland and aims to keep it weakened, allowing him to impose his new constitution with greater ease. In his vision, there is no place for SSC within his broader agenda. The future of Maakhir and Khatumo remains uncertain—whether they will survive with limited support from Puntland or eventually merge with it as a last resort is yet to be seen. Time will reveal the outcome, but Hassan's approach remains steadfast, only disrupted by the recent MOU developments.

[Che -Guevara]

HSM is not really shrewd. He eroded his support among his kin, and they will be first to push him out. Somali society is tribal, but Southern politics loyalty is not always along the clan. HSM simply pissed too many people, too many regions, and too many clans. He has no support in Jland, SW, and his attempt to undermine Qoorqoor is failing, specially considering the weapon smuggling debacle. His support is dwindling down to his Waceysle sub-clan. Reer Hiiraan won a hard fight against AS, but HSM has been undermining them as well.

And HSM's biggest handicap is his unrelenting appetite for money. He understands he's old man so he is grabbing as much resources as he can for his kids. The overwhelming Somali politicians are corrupt from Djibouti, Jigjiga, Hargeisa, Garowe all the way to Garissa and Mandera, even among these thieves, HSM is in class of his own.

We can count one thing, he will try to extend his tenure. He falsely hopes he might able to use foreign forces to subdue other regions.

As for SSC and Maakhir. Somali reality is determined by strength, SSC is well armed, control more lands than HSM himself and are united. They enjoy the support of D-clan. They have made a point of not infringing on other clan's territories, something all Somali clan understand.  Maakhir has always enjoyed relative peace. They see no reason to disrupt that peace