Djibouti, a crucial partner in a strategic but unstable region

[Deeq A.]

 

 

Djibouti, a crucial partner in a strategic but unstable region

HR/VP Blog – A week ago, I travelled to Djibouti to meet the authorities of this country, a strategic partner at the heart of a region, the Horn of Africa, beset by multiple crises. I also visited the Aspides naval operation launched in February to protect maritime traffic in the Red Sea from attacks by the Houthis. A further step towards making the EU a global maritime security provider.

 

© EEAS

Accompanied by the Greek Defence Minister, I travelled first to Larissa, Greece, where the headquarters of operation Aspides is located. There we took stock of the situation with the officers leading the mission. It was launched in record time: its principle was approved at the end of December 2023 and it began operations last February. This is the fastest launch of all missions decided during my mandate.

A major urgency

We had indeed to deal with a major urgency. 22% of EU imports normally pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Following the war in Gaza, attacks by the Houthis in Yemen on these ships have led to a massive diversion of traffic towards the Cape of Good Hope. This diversion extends the journey from Asia to Europe by 10 to 14 days. This extra time increases the cost of transport but its effect is also multiplied by the fact that, for the same amount of goods transported, more ships are mobilised at the same time on the sea. As a result, available transport capacity, which is limited in the short term, is shrinking.

It leads to a sharp rise in the cost of freight, simply due to the law of supply and demand. Since last October, the cost of transporting a container from China to Europe has almost doubled. This state of affairs not only boosts inflation in Europe, but also deprives an entire region of the essential resources derived from this transit. This is true for Djibouti but also for Egypt, where Suez Canal revenues fell by 57% in the first quarter of 2024.

A strictly defensive operation

Operation Aspides was launched to try to restore this transit. It has gathered large support from day one. Six EU Member States have deployed frigates in the region, and 15 EU Member States contribute with personnel in the headquarters. This operation has a strictly defensive mandate. Our vessels operate only in self-defence to protect targeted ships and we are not engaged in any operation on land. Since February, the operation Aspides has accompanied more than 170 ships and destroyed more than 19 drones or missiles launched by the Houthis.

I then travelled to Djibouti, where the Aspides ships are based. On arrival, I visited the Greek frigate Psara, anchored in Djibouti, and the following day I flew by helicopter to the Italian ship Fasan, on a mission in the Red Sea. A few hours after my visit, the Psara, which had also left the port of Djibouti in the meantime, intercepted several drones launched by the Houthis.

Unfortunately, this mission and other allied ships present in the area have not yet allowed to fully restore maritime traffic via the Red Sea. It remains around half what it was before 7 October 2023. An end to the war in Gaza remains an essential prerequisite for a genuine return to normality in the region.

The EU is becoming a global maritime security provider

Despite these limitations, Operation Aspides illustrates one of the areas in which European defence and security policy has made significant progress during this mandate: the ability to be a global maritime security provider to protect at sea EU’s interests but also the interests of our regional partners. Operation Irini, in the Mediterranean, launched in early 2020, implements the United Nations embargo on arms deliveries to Libya, even if other routes than the sea one are unfortunately also used for this purpose. Operation Atalanta, which has been in place since 2008, has done remarkable work in the fight against piracy off the coast of Somalia. We also have two Coordinated Maritime Presences, in which the navies of our Member States coordinate their actions closely, without being placed under a single command as is the case for the EU operations. We have implemented this concept both in the Gulf of Guinea and in the North West Indian Ocean, areas of major strategic interest for European supplies.

Operation Aspides illustrates the growing EU’s ability to become a global maritime security provider to protect at sea EU’s interests but also the interests of our regional partners.

This growing EU role in maritime security has also led us to conduct a number of joint exercises with several navies, such as India’s in the Indian Ocean. In March 2023, we also organised the first joint maritime exercise between the United States and the European Union. Most of the European Union’s imports and exports are transported by sea. It is therefore crucial for us to be able to protect these flows all over the world when their security may be threatened.

Djibouti, a central EU partner in a strategic region

But this trip was not just about the Aspides mission. It was principally a bilateral visit to the authorities of Djibouti, a central partner in a region, the Horn of Africa, which is currently marked by numerous crises. Djibouti, a country of just over a million inhabitants, is certainly not the largest in the region. It nevertheless plays a major role thanks to its strategic position. The country is home to American, French, Chinese, Japanese and Italian military bases. Djibouti is also the main home port for both the EU operations Atalanta and Aspides.

Djibouti, a country of just over a million inhabitants, is not the largest in the region. However it plays a major role thanks to its strategic position.

The country faces war-torn Yemen, just 28 kilometres across the Bab Al Mandab Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea. It neighbours Somalia, which has been plagued by internal conflict for decades. Tensions have recently been heightened in and around Somalia following the signature of a Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a vast region bordering the Indian Ocean to the north of the country. Djibouti is also a neighbour of Ethiopia, which has gone through a terrible civil war in Tigray last year and is now witnessing serious troubles in Amhara and Oromia regions. Last but not least, the country is not very far from Sudan and South Sudan, both plagued by bloody civil wars.

Djibouti’s financial outlook is very bleak

Djibouti’s economy depends essentially on its port, which accounts for 60% of its GDP. However, this activity has been badly affected by regional tensions and the fall in maritime traffic in the Red Sea: revenues generated by the port have fallen by around 60%. And the country’s financial outlook is very bleak. It has a large foreign debt representing 70% of its GDP, mainly with China. Djibouti risks becoming rapidly insolvent if maritime traffic does not recover quickly.

It was against this difficult backdrop that I met the President of the Republic, Ismail Omar Guelleh, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf. I wanted to thank them for welcoming the ships of the Aspides mission after those of Atalanta, to discuss the critical situation in the Horn of Africa and to assure them of the European Union’s full support at this difficult time for Djibouti and the region.

Djibouti also currently chairs the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional organisation that brings together Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Sudan (Sudan has recently suspended its participation to IGAD). I met its Executive Secretary, Workneh Gebeyehu, to discuss the enormous difficulties facing the region.

The desalinisation plant, the flagship EU project in Djibouti

Finally, I visited a seawater desalination plant, the flagship project of EU’s development cooperation in Djibouti. As throughout the region, access to fresh water is a crucial issue for a growing population at a time of intensifying drought. The first phase of this project resulted in providing drinking water to 30% of the Djiboutian population. Together with the European Investment Bank, we have just launched the second phase, which will allow to provide water to 70% of the Djibouti people by 2028.

As I come to the end of my term of office, I was delighted to be able to make this trip, which I wanted to do for a long time. It illustrates both our determination to make the EU a global maritime security provider and our commitment to working alongside Africa and Africans to overcome the enormous challenges the continent faces.

 

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