An Interview with Dr. Kaan Devecioğlu on Somalia-Ethiopia Talks in Türkiye

[Deeq A.]

Dr. Kaan Devecioğlu: “Türkiye’s mediation efforts and investments in Somalia’s stability are valuable for long-term development and governance.”

Dr. Kaan Devecioğlu is the Coordinator for North African Studies at Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM), He completed his PhD at Istanbul Medeniyet University, Department of International Relations, with his thesis on “U.S. – China Competition in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait from the Perspective of Power Transition Theory (2011 – 2021)”. He conducted field research on sustainable development in North Africa and in Red Sea at Sudan, Tunisia, and Algeria. His research interests include politics, economy, security, and terrorism developments in Africa, with a special focus on Africa in Turkish foreign policy, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, Sudan, and the Sahel. His articles and book chapters have been published in peer-reviewed journals, and his analyses and opinions have appeared in the media and in many international publications. He coauthored Turkey showcases growing mediation role through Ethiopia-Somalia talks  in The Africa Report magazine. Puntland Post interviewed Dr Kaan.

Do the talks held in Türkiye convey the message that Ethiopia, in principle, respects the sovereignty of Somalia?

Ethiopia’s participation in the talks held in Türkiye indicates a willingness to engage diplomatically and respect Somalia’s sovereignty. These discussions on neutral ground underscore the importance of open dialogue for resolving sensitive issues and highlight Ethiopia’s commitment to finding a mutually acceptable solution. However, it is also beneficial to assess this question from both Ethiopia’s and Somalia’s perspectives to better understand the issue.

From Ethiopia’s viewpoint, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration, there is a need to establish engagement beyond Djibouti for access to the sea and to maintain balance in both domestic and regional politics. The Houthi threat has made it unavoidable for Ethiopia to seek alternatives to the Djibouti port. Additionally, Ethiopia’s rapprochement with Somalia is crucial in balancing relations with Egypt in the context of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Despite the resolution of the Tigray crisis, Ethiopia still faces potential threats domestically. These parameters necessitate Ethiopia’s rational choice to negotiate with Somalia through the mediation of Türkiye, a country with which it has good relations.

From Somalia’s perspective, engaging with Ethiopia is appealing in terms of counter-terrorism, regional stability, and economic gains from the Ethiopian market. Regional stability contributes to Somalia’s development and success in counter-terrorism efforts. Thus, Somalia, which has deepening relations with Türkiye, views dialogue with Ethiopia as a rational choice for regional stability.

In conclusion, Ethiopia has not definitively promised to recognize Somaliland but has implied the possibility. Somaliland has used this implication to its advantage. Therefore, Ethiopia’s participation in the Ankara talks signals its acknowledgment of Somalia’s territorial integrity.

How is Türkiye’s role contributing to the state-building initiatives in the Federal Republic of Somalia?

As highlighted in your question, Türkiye’s multifaceted agreements with Somalia (economic, defense, educational) significantly contribute to Somalia’s state-building efforts. As a NATO member and a key international partner of Somalia, Türkiye provides critical support that enhances Somalia’s institutional capacity and infrastructure development. A pivotal moment was President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Somalia with his family in 2011 when he was Prime Minister. Since then, Türkiye has provided extensive support to Somalia, from infrastructure to addressing environmental issues and security. This background underscores that Türkiye’s mediation efforts and investments in Somalia’s stability are valuable for long-term development and governance.

To what extent is the rules-based order effective in the Global South in tackling potential inter-state conflict over sovereignty issues?

While the rules-based international order plays a significant role in managing inter-state conflicts over sovereignty issues in the Global South, its effectiveness faces various challenges. Many states in the Global South perceive this order as unequal and serving the interests of major powers. However, this order offers some key advantages. International organizations influence state behavior, promote cooperation, and reduce the risk of inter-state conflict. These organizations can coordinate international action for common benefit. Yet, the order’s effectiveness is threatened by shifts in global power dynamics and rising populist nationalism. Creating a more inclusive and representative international system, particularly increasing representation for regions like Africa in international institutions, is crucial for enhancing the fairness and effectiveness of the rules-based order.

In this context, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s assertion that “The world is bigger than five” reflects the growing sentiment that the current system is insufficient in addressing global challenges. The intense competition among global powers in sub-regions like Africa often triggers conflicts. Türkiye’s mediation between Ethiopia and Somalia in the Horn of Africa is significant. It demonstrates Türkiye’s lack of a hidden agenda in Africa and its role as a contributor to regional stability. Consequently, Türkiye is seen as a reliable actor by regional countries.

Could the United Nations Security Council view Ethiopia’s potential annexation of a Somali coastal district to gain access to the sea as a global threat?

Given the United States’ position as a dominant power in the international system, it is expected to take initiative in any international political dispute. Ethiopia’s potential annexation of a Somali coastal district would naturally be perceived as a significant global threat by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Such an action not only violates Somalia’s sovereignty but also poses a serious risk to regional stability. The UNSC, tasked with maintaining international peace and security, would likely view such an annexation attempt as a broader threat to global stability.

Moreover, the UNSC has a crucial role in upholding international law and norms. Ethiopia’s annexation for sea access would constitute a violation of international law and set a negative precedent for other countries. This undermines trust in the rule of law internationally and could lead to similar violations elsewhere. The UNSC is expected to intervene in such situations to uphold international norms. Such an annexation would also negatively impact counter-terrorism operations in the region, complicating the security situation further. Therefore, it is critical for the international community, and particularly the UNSC, to take a strong stance against such violations.

Why are major countries wary of supporting the maritime MoU between Ethiopia and the secessionist administration, Somaliland?

Major countries in international politics are cautious about supporting the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland because it contradicts international norms regarding Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Supporting such an agreement could further destabilize the region and undermine the legitimacy of internationally recognized borders established since the 1960s. Türkiye’s support for Somalia’s sovereignty aligns with these global norms and emphasizes the importance of maintaining established borders.

© Puntland Post, 2024

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