The Horn of Africa – An everlasting battleground

[Jacaylbaro]

An exciting but ruined region.

Ethiopia always surrounded by conflict neighboring or at least unstable; landlocked since Eritrea’s independence back in 1993. The situation is worse in the periphery: Somalia is today a state that has collapsed, we can even speak of “three Somalias” having witnessed several foreign military interventions, among which a recent American-Ethiopian. The young Eritrea has managed to generate disagreements and disputes of any kind with almost all its neighbors – a severe armed conflict with Ethiopia in the late 90′s. Kenya has been the scene of violent riots. Uganda is involved in local and ethnic instability. As for Sudan, if the date of the referendum on the secession of southern Sudan remains to January 2011, the way out each day looks like a new civil conflict – in the opinion of most analysts, including Mrs. Clinton glimpse the possibility that a war occurs according to a US-Sudan agreement in 2005.

 

The impression is that this is a real battleground.

Relations have always been uptight between Ethiopia and Eritrea: despite the recognition of the independence of Eritrea by Ethiopia in 1993, there were clashes from 1998 to 2000, not to mention a proxy war in Somalia. However, the risk of confrontation or open conflict between the two countries appears small, the main risk is the collapse of the Eritrean regime to a scenario of separation between government and the population – and a loss of support of the military at first.

 

The role of Ethiopia in Somalia: Ethiopian forces tried to crush the Islamic courts between 2006 and 2009 and found a situation evolving for over 20 years. The balance of such intervention leads to finding a complete admission of failure because ultimately the intervention has strengthened the extremist militia of al-Chebab – the most radical Islamists, fanatical enemies of the Somali transitional government. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops allowed the installation of the AMISOM international force – African Union Mission in Somalia, a regional peacekeeping mission operated by the African Union – but not allowed to settle peace, unlike since the AMISOM is parked in a few districts of the capital Mogadishu and is both a conflict hostage. Two countries participate in the AU mission, Uganda (3,500 men) and Burundi (2,500). In July 2010, when attacks in Kampala, two other countries that committed to the mission, Nigeria and Malawi, preferred not to interfere.

 

Three Somalias: one of which is Somaliland (former British colony), which proclaimed its independence in May 1991. This is a mono-ethnic country whose sole ethnic group overflows in neighboring countries such as Djibouti and Ethiopia. Oddly, ethnic reasons are not the root of its collapse as state. While the collapse has regional implications: the radical Islamist militia al-Chebab of Somaliland, who claimed responsibility for the attacks in Kampala, shows the willingness to go beyond the borders of Somalia. This is a scene of violence with regional deleterious interactions that will increase if nothing impeaches the chaos going forward in Somalia.

 

The partition of Sudan: an agreement between the parties on the partition of the Sudanese state was signed under the auspices of the U.S. in 2005 – referendum for January 2011. Today we are witnessing a backdrop of fratricidal confrontation and a more than likely disaster… by all indications, the secession of South Sudan is beyond doubt; and on the other hand Khartoum takes time, it does not attempt to simplify the referendum organization, and on the contrary it spurs Southern authorities hoping they make the mistake of declaring independence unilaterally thus giving rise to military intervention. The conflict with the south has also evident regional and international implications (1): the stage is located in the valley of the Nile, Khartoum, the capital, is located at the confluence of the White Nile and Blue Nile, there are much coveted oil fields; the area is the Egypt’s “backyard”, Sudan and the Darfur conflict is not far and spills all over central Africa, especially Chad … just look at the map lines and pin down the points of conflict to be horrifyed by such a Battle field in the Horn of Africa.